Research

Why Berlin won't come to UK's rescue on Brexit

Christian Odendahl
08 September 2017
Politico
With the German election around the corner, the United Kingdom appears to be holding out hope that a fourth term for Chancellor Angela Merkel and a potentially more pro-business coalition partner could come to its rescue in divorce talks in Brussels.

Intern britisk uenighed kaster mudder i Brexit-forhandlinger

07 September 2017
Kristeligt Dagblad
Udenrigspolitisk direktør Ian Bond fra tænketanken Centre for European Reform hæfter sig tilsvarende ved, at Theresa May ikke som en Margaret Thatcher kan svinge med håndtasken og presse sin vilje igennem i Bruxelles. ”Det påvirker dem betydeligt. En stærkere premierminister kunne sige til resten af Europa, at ’jeg har mandatet til at gøre, hvad jeg vil. Får jeg ikke min vilje, så går jeg’. Hun ville også kunne sige til tilhængerne af en hård Brexit (hvor briterne kapper alle bånd til EU, red.), at det vil være økonomisk katastrofalt, og at briterne derfor vil være nødt til at gå på kompromis med en økonomisk aftale. Men hun har intet,” siger Ian Bond.

What to make of the Home Office leak?

06 September 2017
The Financial Times
 John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, disagrees. “This document is a demand for derogation from free movement law,” he says. “It demands that EU citizens register, while UK citizens do not have to do so, violating non-discrimination rules.” He adds: “EU leaders were clear in the negotiating mandate that they gave to the commission that, should a prolongation of the acquis be required, then all rules and institutions and the entirety of single market and EU law would have to apply. The EU has no interest in negotiating a bespoke transition.”
Judy Asks: Is it time for hard power in North Korea?

Judy Asks: Is it time for hard power in North Korea?

06 September 2017
Carnegie Europe
If there ever was a chance of a successful military response to North Korea’s nuclear program, it is now gone.

La grande coalizione che serve all’Europa

Christian Odendahl
05 September 2017
Il sole 24 Ore
Christian Odendahl, capo economista del Centre for European Reform, in un’analisi pubblicata dopo il dibattito , butta lì l’ipotesi intrigante di un Governo democristiano di minoranza, con l’appoggio “variabile” di Spd, Fdp e Verdi. Ma questo sembra contraddire la predilezione dell’elettorato tedesco per la stabilità.

When it comes to progress, what counts as 'sufficient'?

05 September 2017
Politico
“The key issue for ‘sufficient progress’ will be money,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “The EU and the U.K. will have to agree on a methodology for calculating the amount that the UK must pay.” Such a methodology would have to be “detailed enough to reassure the EU … but vague enough so that journalists cannot easily work out a direct figure,” Grant added. EU estimates of this figure range from €65 billion net to €100 billion.

How May can put Brexit back on track

04 September 2017
Bloomberg
And that, as John Springford of the Centre for European Reform has argued, might be the worst possible outcome for hardliners. It would lead voters to conclude that Brexit was a terrible mistake after all -- an error that they might then decide to put right.

Die SPD hätte mehr Sozialdemokratie wagen müssen

Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch
04 September 2017
Makronom
Spätestens nach dem TV-Duell dürfte klar sein, dass die Sozialdemokraten die Bundestagswahl verlieren werden.

France Culture: Flexisécurité, Loi Hartz, Jobs Act : l’Europe à la recherche d’un modèle

Christian Odendahl
04 September 2017
Christian Odendahl speaks to radio France Culture about the German Hartz reforms (in French, from 40.00 mins).

Čas tlačí. Do summitu EU se vyjednavači k brexitu sejdou jen dvakrát

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
03 September 2017
Tyden.cz
Podle Agaty Gostyńské-Jakubowské z londýnského Centra pro evropskou reformu (CER) jsou pozice stran v klíčových otázkách nadále "velmi daleko" od sebe. "Zdá se mi, že bude velmi složité pro Brity i Barnierův tým se do října dohodnout a otevřít tak cestu k další fázi rozhovorů," uvedla analytička střediska.

The EU is changing – and the UK attitude to Brexit could change too

03 September 2017
The New Statesman
The people running the EU have always wanted it to be uniform.

No Brexit respite for UK as German parties align behind the EU

Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch
01 September 2017
Bloomberg
“Most German voters still have a very hard time understanding why British voters decided the leave the EU,” Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, and research fellow Sophia Besch wrote in a note. “They fail to see how retreating from a club of like-minded democratic countries gives Britain more control.”

Liam Fox's cry of "blackmail"

01 September 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform argues that the UK request for a transition period after it leaves the EU is key. “If the UK asked for a three-year transition and agreed to pay €10bn a year (roughly what it pays today), that would cover a large part of its share of unspent EU budgetary commitments,” he writes. In other words, the issues of financial settlement and transition are interlinked: “The sequencing can be fixed with a bit of creativity and goodwill from each side.”

BBC Radio 4 Today: Brexit negotiations

01 September 2017
Charles Grant speaks to John Humphreys about the Brexit negotiations (from 1h 34m).

Tok FM: The Brexit negotiations

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
31 August 2017
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to Tok FM about the third round of Brexit negotiations.

BBC World Service Newshour: How are the Brexit negotiations going?

31 August 2017
Veteran Europe watcher Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform, assesses the state of Brexit negotiations as the third round of talks ends.

Tory Remainers claim Labour's single market shift is sending a hard Brexit 'down the pan'

29 August 2017
The Daily Mail
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, told the paper: 'Many top officials in the EU and governments would welcome an offer of €10 billion a year for three years as part of a transitional deal that would move the talks forward. 'If the British . . . make a serious offer on the money . . . they will not only put the EU on the defensive, they will also expose divisions on how to respond to the money deadlock.'

EU's Brexit negotiator tells UK to speed up and 'get serious'

29 August 2017
The Guardian
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, gave a similar account in a Guardian comment article, saying that “hardliners” around Barnier were blocking this option.

Jean-Claude Juncker's frosty verdict

29 August 2017
Channel 4 News
In the Guardian today, Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform suggests that the EU might settle for EU60b and that subscriptions for a transition lasting a few years could bring the two negotiating sides’ numbers much closer than might be thought.

Conservatives come together to sell a Brexit transition

29 August 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, says Mrs May will end up in the same position. “There is only one model of transition that’s conceivable for our partners and that’s the single market with no votes for the British,” he says.