Press

"The biggest gain for Germany will come if European migrants choose to work there, mitigating its growing shortage of workers, instead of in Britain."(Christian Odendahl and John Springford, Centre for European Reform)

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “It suits both the UK government and the EU to pretend that the transition will last only about two years. In fact – as officials on both sides will admit in their more candid moments – it will have to be much longer. Building the border infrastructure at Channel ports will take several years, as will the new IT systems required for customs and registering EU immigrants. Above all, the negotiation of the future relationship – covering trade, research, security, defence and foreign policy – will take at least five years. So any attempt to limit the transition to two years would lead to a cliff-edge – of Britain leaving the single market without new arrangements being in place.”

Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, agreed the full alignment reference was "radical"."It's almost inverted the logic of the no-deal outcome," he said. Brexiteers have long argued if Britain leaves the EU without agreeing terms it can fall back on World Trade Organisation rules. "There are a lot of imponderables. Whether this keeps the knives out of the prime minister's back is one of the most imponderable of all," Bond added.

“You could imagine that if she had won that election with a very big majority, that the right of the Conservative party would not be in the kind of position to dictate terms that it’s in now,” John Springford, the director of research at the London-based Centre for European Reform, told me in reference May’s failed election gambit in June. Though she called elections expecting to expand her majority in Parliament, her Conservative party instead lost the majority it had. “She would have much more authority and freedom for maneuver in the negotiations.”

In its report on Canada-plus, the Centre for European Reform says Canada’s businesses “are aligning to European standards in many sectors like food, chemicals and electrical equipment. In contrast, the EU has not changed a single technical regulation in response to the agreement.” “Align” means for Canada, as it will for us, “fall into line”.