Macroeconomics & the euro

Disasters often provoke unseemly bouts of finger-pointing. This has certainly been true of the global financial crisis. In the Anglo-Saxon world, libertarians have blamed it on governments, and governments on ‘bankers’. 

Since the 1980s, many of the largest economies in the EU have developed unenviable reputations for protracted economic downturns followed by sluggish recoveries.

Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, threatens to walk out of the London G20 summit unless France gets its way on tougher financial regulation. The toppled Czech Prime Minister, Mirek Topolanek, who happens to hold the EU presidency, describes the US fiscal stimulus as “the road to hell”. Not one EU leader deems it necessary to support Gordon Brown publicly when he tries to drum up support for a more concerted international effort to revive the global economy. 

The future of the euro may not be secure, warned the CER’s Simon Tilford in a January 2009 essay. The current economic crisis threatens to exacerbate the tensions within the eurozone, and an insolvent member-state... could default and leave the eurozone. Since January, the economic crisis has deepened further, and the eurozone’s weakest economies have come under even greater strain. 

On February 25th 2009, a Commission-appointed taskforce headed by Jacques de Larosière published its much-awaited report on financial supervision in the EU.

The EU's new member-states have been hit hard by the credit crunch and collapsing export markets. The Central and East Europeans sense that their post-Cold War growth model – consisting of liberalisation and EU integration – is broken.

The debate about sovereign wealth funds will return as global growth and commodity prices recover. European governments have been right to reject new EU rules on SWFs, and instead support multilateral efforts to set voluntary standards.

The credit crunch has unleashed widespread anger outside the financial sector. And rightly so. Not only have taxpayers had to bail out an industry that is uncommonly well rewarded. But the effects of the credit crunch on the real economy are likely to be painful and prolonged – not least on the jobs market.

Many observers have drawn parallels between the current economic crisis and the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, the stock market collapse of 1929 did not directly cause what turned out to be the deepest and most prolonged recession of modern times, ultimately ending in the Second World War.