Macroeconomics & the euro

Interest rates

The eurozone's real interest rate problem

Christian Odendahl
08 July 2014
Aggressive fiscal and regulatory policies are needed to counteract the effects of divergent real interest rates in the eurozone – but this is not happening.
The eurozone is no place for poor countries

The eurozone is no place for poor countries

Simon Tilford
27 June 2014
The gap between the eurozone’s richer and poorer members is as wide as in 1999 and is growing. Poorer prospective members should take note.
How to finish the euro house

How to finish the euro house

Philippe Legrain
17 June 2014
Eurozone governance is politically unsustainable: its rules and institutions favour creditor over debtor countries. Eurozone policy-makers need to change direction before it is too late.
German investment

More investment, for Germany’s sake

Christian Odendahl
13 June 2014
German investment is low while German borrowing costs are at record lows. Convincing the German government to invest will not be easy, for political reasons.

The economic consequences of leaving the EU

The final report of the CER commission on the UK and the EU single market
09 June 2014
A group of experts finds that, after leaving the EU, the UK would face an invidious choice: sign up to the single market’s rules, or suffer economic damage.In April 2016 an updated version of the report The economic consequences of leaving the EU: The final report of the CER commission on Brexit 2016 was published.
CER bulletin - Issue 96

Issue 96 - 2014

Charles Grant, Christian Odendahl, Rem Korteweg, Simon Tilford
06 June 2014
The eurozone economy needs a kick-start

The eurozone economy needs a kick-start

Christian Odendahl, Simon Tilford
06 June 2014
With just as many reasons for pessimism as for optimism in the eurozone, policy-makers need to further stimulate demand and pursue more targeted reforms.
Presidential candidates, European federalism and Tony Giddens

Presidential candidates, European federalism and Tony Giddens

15 May 2014
The problem with ‘federalism’ is that most European citizens do not want it. This makes the federalist proposals in Tony Giddens’ new book unrealistic.
The consequences of Brexit for the City of London

The consequences of Brexit for the City of London

John Springford, Philip Whyte
08 May 2014
If Britain leaves the EU, the City of London will lose access to European markets – unless the UK aligns its financial rules with those of the EU.
Quantitative easing alone will not do the trick

Quantitative easing alone will not do the trick

Christian Odendahl
28 April 2014
In the eurozone, quantitative easing by itself is unlikely to be effective. The European Central Bank needs to change the way it manages people’s expectations, too.
Poland and Ukraine: A tale of two economies

Poland and Ukraine: A tale of two economies

Simon Tilford
31 March 2014
The EU finally needs to fulfil its moral obligation to Ukraine: to treat it like any other sovereign country trying to escape Russia's grasp.
The eurozone's ruinous embrace of 'competitive devaluation'

The eurozone's ruinous embrace of 'competitive devaluation'

Simon Tilford
10 March 2014
Instead of being criticised for pursuing competitive devaluations, eurozone countries that manage to devalue their real exchange rates are extolled as an example for others.
French federalists propose a Euro Community

French federalists propose a Euro Community

03 March 2014
A group of French thinkers wants to establish a federal 'Euro Community'. Their scheme could harm the single market and make Britain's position in the EU uncomfortable.
What explains Europe's rejection of macroeconomic orthodoxy?

What explains Europe's rejection of macroeconomic orthodoxy?

Simon Tilford
05 February 2014
European policy-makers' rejection of both Keynesianism and monetarism has cut economic growth, raised debt and increased the risk of deflation.
The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK’s trade and

The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK's trade and investment

John Springford, Simon Tilford
20 January 2014
Eurosceptics think Britain can leave the EU and still have access to its markets. But to do so, Britain will have to sign up to EU rules. 
Why Germany’s trade surplus is bad for the eurozone

Why Germany’s trade surplus is bad for the eurozone

John Springford, Simon Tilford
29 November 2013
In late October, the US singled out Germany as a threat to the global economy. The Treasury issued a report saying that Germany’s current account surplus – now around 7 per cent of GDP – imposes "a deflationary bias for the eurozone as well as for the world economy."
Eurozone recovery: The world is not enough

Eurozone recovery: The world is not enough

Simon Tilford
04 October 2013
The eurozone is too big to rely on exports for economic growth. It needs policies suited to a large continental economy, not ones perfected by Germany.
Banking union – or Potemkin village?

Banking union – or Potemkin village?

Philip Whyte
27 September 2013
Since mid-2012, the eurozone crisis has been in remission. The period of relative calm which has prevailed since then has not been the product of an upturn in economic fortunes: until the recent summer uptick, the eurozone had suffered six consecutive quarters of declining activity and rising unemployment (a result in part of synchronised fiscal austerity across the region as a whole).