Single market, competition & trade

Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Sam Lowe
05 November 2018
The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.

One year since Macron's Sorbonne speech: Plus ça change?

25 October 2018
In September 2017, newly-elected French President Macron laid out his grand vision for relaunching the EU. He has not achieved much so far, but Macron remains the greatest hope for driving much-needed reforms.

The cost of Brexit to June 2018

30 September 2018
The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.

Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation

28 September 2018
Four months after being sworn in, Italy’s League-Five Star coalition government has set a more confrontational tone in its relations with the European Union.

The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

28 September 2018
At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.

After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

Sam Lowe, John Springford
24 September 2018
Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop. 

The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

20 July 2018
The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.

Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

Sam Lowe, Beth Oppenheim
20 July 2018
The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.

Regime change? The European economy to 2030

20 July 2018
The crises of the 1970s led to the single currency and a deeply integrated single market. What economic regime will the EU need to build after the crises of the last decade?

Inching our way towards Jersey

Sam Lowe
11 July 2018
The EU will probably reject Theresa May’s Chequers compromise. Rather than confronting the EU on its fundamental principles, the UK should build upon the foundations of a customs union.

What's the cost of Brexit so far?

23 June 2018
New analysis by the CER – which we will update quarterly – estimates that the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU.

Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

13 June 2018
Macron thinks the EU is not viable without radical reform. His priority is to reshape the eurozone, but Germany is blocking his bolder ideas. He risks isolation in Europe, which could weaken him at home.

On Brexit, TTIP and the City of London

Sam Lowe
30 May 2018
The EU was keen to include financial services in TTIP, the proposed trade agreement with the US. Is its reluctance to do so with the UK mere hypocrisy?

UK must swallow the unpalatable Irish backstop

Sam Lowe
15 May 2018
Theresa May and the Brexiters should have the courage of their convictions and agree to a backstop that grants a special status to Northern Ireland. 

The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution

24 April 2018
With the UK leaving, the EU needs a revised budget. It should cut rebates, agriculture spending, and structural funds; and spend more on border security, education, and research.

Is Labour selling the UK a Turkey?

Sam Lowe
12 April 2018
A future UK-EU customs union should not be ruled out. While it would place some constraints on a future UK independent trade policy, the positives far outweigh the negatives. 

Brexit and the financial services industry: The story so far

Mark Boleat
27 March 2018
The City will survive Brexit, but it will not emerge unscathed. In order to remain competitive Britain’s financial services industry will need to adapt, as it has always done.