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      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\John\Documents\Stata log for cost of Brexit.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 opened on:  21 Jun 2018, 13:47:09

. net from "https://web.stanford.edu/~jhain/Synth"
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https://web.stanford.edu/~jhain/Synth/
Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies
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Alberto Abadie, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and NBER
Jens Hainmueller, Department of Political Science, MIT
Alexis Diamond, IFC

Also see the homepage for the paper that describes the method.

PACKAGES you could -net describe-:


synth  Synthetic Control Methods


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. net install synth, all replace force
checking synth consistency and verifying not already installed...

the following files will be replaced:
    c:\ado\plus\s\synth.ado
    c:\ado\plus\s\synth_ll.ado
    c:\ado\plus\l\lsynth_mata_subr.mlib
    c:\ado\plus\s\synth.sthlp
    smoking.dta
    c:\ado\plus\s\synthopt.plugin

installing into c:\ado\plus\...
installation complete.

copying into current directory...
      copying  smoking.dta
ancillary files successfully copied.

. import excel "C:\Users\John\Documents\Input data - cost of Brexit.xlsx", sheet("Sheet1") firstrow

. encode country, gen(ncountry)

. tsset ncountry dateid
       panel variable:  ncountry (strongly balanced)
        time variable:   dateid, 1 to 93
                delta:  1 unit

. . synth realgdp consumption investment realgdp(1) realgdp(2) realgdp(3) realgdp(4) realgdp(5) realgdp(6) realgdp(7) realgdp(8) realgdp(9) realgdp(10) realgdp(11) realgdp(12) realgdp(13) realgdp(14) realgdp(15) realgdp(16) realgdp(17) realgdp(18) realgdp(19) realgdp(20) realgdp(21) realgdp(22) realgdp(23 ) realgdp(24) realgdp(25) realgdp(26) realgdp(27) realgdp(28) realgdp(29) realgdp(30) realgdp(31) realgdp(32) realgdp(33) realgdp(34) realgdp(35) realgdp(36) realgdp(37) realgdp(38) realgdp(39) realgdp(40) realgdp(41) realgdp(42) realgdp(43) realgdp(44) realgdp(45) realgdp(46) realgdp(47) realgdp(48) realgdp(49) realgdp(50) realgdp(51) realgdp(52) realgdp(53) realgdp(54) realgdp(55) realgdp(56) realgdp(57) realgdp(58) realgdp(59) realgdp(60) realgdp(61) realgdp(62) realgdp(63) realgdp(64) realgdp(65) realgdp(66) realgdp(67) realgdp(68) realgdp(69) realgdp(70) realgdp(71) realgdp(71) realgdp(73) realgdp(74) realgdp(75) realgdp(76) realgdp(77) realgdp(78) realgdp(79) realgdp(80) realgdp(81) realgdp(82) realgdp(83) realgdp(84) realgdp(85) realgdp(86), trunit(35) trperiod(87) keep(resultscostofbrexit) xperiod(1(1)86) nested fig
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Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
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First Step: Data Setup
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Data Setup successful
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 Treated Unit: United Kingdom


 Control Units: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United States


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 Dependent Variable: realgdp


 MSPE minimized for periods: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86


 Results obtained for periods: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93


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 Predictors: consumption investment realgdp(1) realgdp(2) realgdp(3) realgdp(4) realgdp(5) realgdp(6) realgdp(7) realgdp(8) realgdp(9) realgdp(10) realgdp(11) realgdp(12) realgdp(13) realgdp(14) realgdp(15) realgdp(16) realgdp(17) realgdp(18) realgdp(19) realgdp(20) realgdp(21) realgdp(22) realgdp(23) realgdp(24) realgdp(25) realgdp(26) realgdp(27) realgdp(28) realgdp(29) realgdp(30) realgdp(31) realgdp(32) realgdp(33) realgdp(34) realgdp(35) realgdp(36) realgdp(37) realgdp(38) realgdp(39) realgdp(40) realgdp(41) realgdp(42) realgdp(43) realgdp(44) realgdp(45) realgdp(46) realgdp(47) realgdp(48) realgdp(49) realgdp(50) realgdp(51) realgdp(52) realgdp(53) realgdp(54) realgdp(55) realgdp(56) realgdp(57) realgdp(58) realgdp(59) realgdp(60) realgdp(61) realgdp(62) realgdp(63) realgdp(64) realgdp(65) realgdp(66) realgdp(67) realgdp(68) realgdp(69) realgdp(70) realgdp(71) realgdp(71) realgdp(73) realgdp(74) realgdp(75) realgdp(76) realgdp(77) realgdp(78) realgdp(79) realgdp(80) realgdp(81) realgdp(82) realgdp(83) realgdp(84) realgdp(85) realgdp(86)


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 Unless period is specified


 predictors are averaged over: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86


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Second Step: Run Optimization
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 Nested optimization requested


 Starting nested optimization module


 Optimization done


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Optimization done
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Third Step: Obtain Results
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Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------+-----------
RMSPE   |  .5345223
---------+-----------
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Unit Weights:

----------------+------------
          Co_No | Unit_Weight
----------------+------------
      Australia |           0
        Austria |           0
        Belgium |           0
         Canada |        .155
          Chile |           0
 Czech Republic |           0
        Denmark |        .037
        Estonia |           0
        Finland |           0
         France |           0
        Germany |           0
         Greece |           0
        Hungary |        .231
        Iceland |           0
        Ireland |        .042
         Israel |           0
          Italy |        .026
          Japan |        .203
          Korea |           0
         Latvia |           0
      Lithuania |           0
     Luxembourg |           0
         Mexico |           0
    Netherlands |           0
    New Zealand |           0
         Norway |        .067
         Poland |           0
       Portugal |           0
Slovak Republic |           0
       Slovenia |           0
   South Africa |           0
          Spain |           0
         Sweden |           0
    Switzerland |           0
  United States |         .24
----------------+------------
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Predictor Balance:

-------------------------------+----------------------
   | Treated    Synthetic
-------------------------------+----------------------
consumption   |  32.24791     27.87629
investment   |  19.06395     36.19533
realgdp(1)   |   .335146     .6095324
realgdp(2)   |   .696116     1.022984
realgdp(3)   |  1.679714     1.790722
realgdp(4)   |  1.966058     2.182032
realgdp(5)   |  2.874696     2.790731
realgdp(6)   |  3.189935     3.652013
realgdp(7)   |  3.867651     4.259846
realgdp(8)   |  4.809377     5.118089
realgdp(9)   |  6.255201     6.185498
realgdp(10)   |  7.326945     7.225788
realgdp(11)   |  7.922841     8.094365
realgdp(12)   |   9.14881     8.881616
realgdp(13)   |  9.702185     9.542528
realgdp(14)   |   10.2883      10.1727
realgdp(15)   |  11.01975     10.97568
realgdp(16)   |  12.06169      11.7104
realgdp(17)   |  12.66336     12.34561
realgdp(18)   |  12.73285     13.04076
realgdp(19)   |  14.48738     14.47015
realgdp(20)   |   15.9029     15.66733
realgdp(21)   |  16.83516     16.77667
realgdp(22)   |  17.55387     17.77609
realgdp(23)   |  17.85008     18.37376
realgdp(24)   |  18.05978     19.22167
realgdp(25)   |    19.071      19.6307
realgdp(26)   |  19.89834     19.95374
realgdp(27)   |  20.54201     19.95094
realgdp(28)   |  20.87094     20.36327
realgdp(29)   |  21.35333     21.37205
realgdp(30)   |  22.07042     22.05164
realgdp(31)   |  22.87548     22.62063
realgdp(32)   |  23.82066     23.11807
realgdp(33)   |  24.44196     23.39593
realgdp(34)   |    25.348      23.9839
realgdp(35)   |  26.34535     24.95413
realgdp(36)   |  27.12338     26.15701
realgdp(37)   |  27.64154      27.1444
realgdp(38)   |  28.06353     27.87799
realgdp(39)   |  28.29408     28.60226
realgdp(40)   |  28.65706     29.18353
realgdp(41)   |  29.50403     30.03192
realgdp(42)   |  30.59811      31.0125
realgdp(43)   |  31.65417     31.87769
realgdp(44)   |  33.12106     32.63098
realgdp(45)   |  33.38433     33.38298
realgdp(46)   |  33.58688     33.99864
realgdp(47)   |  33.66615     34.32264
realgdp(48)   |  34.03096      35.1672
realgdp(49)   |  34.93295      35.4111
realgdp(50)   |  35.64883     35.66946
realgdp(51)   |  36.31097     35.95312
realgdp(52)   |  37.11488     36.51852
realgdp(53)   |  37.38701      36.4162
realgdp(54)   |  36.71088      36.4626
realgdp(55)   |  35.10984     36.08664
realgdp(56)   |  32.93334     33.88257
realgdp(57)   |  31.33508     31.07296
realgdp(58)   |  31.10984     31.11379
realgdp(59)   |  31.26504     31.22529
realgdp(60)   |  31.53176     31.95751
realgdp(61)   |  32.06972     32.62343
realgdp(62)   |  32.96958      33.3409
realgdp(63)   |  33.43369     34.06694
realgdp(64)   |   33.5059     34.45638
realgdp(65)   |  34.09292     34.46171
realgdp(66)   |  34.24103     34.59295
realgdp(67)   |  34.62164     35.45145
realgdp(68)   |  34.81168      36.0067
realgdp(69)   |  35.45818     36.01118
realgdp(70)   |  35.35146     36.01796
realgdp(71)   |   36.5025      35.9296
realgdp(71)   |   36.5025      35.9296
realgdp(73)   |   36.9959     36.69441
realgdp(74)   |  37.53648     37.34536
realgdp(75)   |  38.38685     38.32531
realgdp(76)   |  38.90576     38.91232
realgdp(77)   |  39.76473     39.49872
realgdp(78)   |  40.61771     40.04183
realgdp(79)   |  41.37886     40.76476
realgdp(80)   |  42.14008     41.35784
realgdp(81)   |  42.48268     43.05377
realgdp(82)   |   43.0575     43.23334
realgdp(83)   |  43.47404     43.85513
realgdp(84)   |  44.19987     44.01135
realgdp(85)   |  44.41145     44.33052
realgdp(86)   |  44.88734      44.8422
-------------------------------+----------------------
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. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\John\Documents\Stata log for cost of Brexit.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 closed on:  21 Jun 2018, 15:36:47
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