Lunch on 'Is Brexit inevitable?'
Speakers:
Hugo Dixon, Chair, InFacts
Charles Grant, Director, Centre for European Reform
John Kerr, Vice Chairman, ScottishPower
Chair: Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Reform
Unity of EU27 in #Brexit talks has been quite surprising - they want to demonstrate that leaving EU is a bad idea (especially France, for domestic political reasons) - and there's no sign small EU countries going against this, says #CER_Grant #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
Corbyn’s likely line going into the next general election will be soft Brexit, not a 2nd referendum. If May softens her stance, that will put Corbyn in a tricky position - softening further will involve concessions on immigration @CER_Grant #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
Macron is worried about eurosceptics doing well in the European elections, so it’s in the EU interest to make sure UK doesn’t come off well from Brexit @CER_Grant #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
.@D_G_Alexander says Labour’s constructive ambiguity over Brexit has allowed it to hold onto northern seats & win Kensington. An initiative by Macron for EU-wide reform on freedom of movement cld shift Labour & let them off the immigration hook w electorate #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Kerr says @DavidDavisMP is right to want detailed framework of future relations as part of withdrawal agreement, because UK will have less leverage post- #Brexit. But he thinks ‘Gove tendency’ of having nothing but fudge in framework, will win.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
Unlikely @UKLabour leadership drops its constructive ambiguity position on #Brexit anytime soon, says @D_G_Alexander #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Douglas Alexander says problem for #PeoplesVote is that Tory rebels want referendum & don’t want general election; #Labour leadership wants GE, & doesn’t want referendum. Labour has had success (incl in GE2017) by talking about anything but #EU.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Hannay says #EU27 need to start contingency planning, not just for #NoDeal but for wider range of possible outcomes, to avoid #Trump -style “soap-opera diplomacy” at the last minute.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
If UK willing to soften its red lines (ECJ/freedom of movement/budget €) it will be more difficult for the EU to reject a possible UK proposal of single market for goods, but compromises will increase risk of Conservative resignations @CER_Grant #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Hannay disagrees with Lord Kerr on chance of no deal, because he thinks people in Cabinet know just how much damage no deal would do, and because @UKParliament would reject it.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @CER_Grant thinks @nickclegg is wrong to think #EU is moving against #FoM within EU - main concern remains migration from outside EU.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
It's quite likely that a rejection of #Brexit deal could lead to general election - or put it to voters in @peoplesvote_uk, says @Hugodixon #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @Hugodixon thinks crashing out of #EU becomes more likely if @UKParliament fails to adopt ‘meaningful vote’ amendment, because it will strengthen hand of #Brexiters who favour taking things to the edge of the cliff and expect #EU to concede.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
Debate as to whether Brexit deal being rejected by parliament would trigger a general election. @CER_Grant thinks unlikely, Tories will avoid this. @philipstephens says May wld go & election wld follow #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
.@CER_Grant disagrees with @Hugodixon that a 2nd referendum possible. Not in either Tory or Labour parties’ interests to promise this. Tory future relies on delivering it, Lab faces an old demographic /electoral dilemma btn middle class & working class voters #IsBrexitinevitable
— Beth Oppenheim (@BethOppenheim) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Kerr thinks UK in SM for goods only is bad for the City, and unattractive to #EU states that depend on FoM - and to member-states who would like to attract manufacturing investment from UK if supply chains involving UK are obstructed.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Vernon Bogdanor says #Brexit depends as much on #Merkel & @Macron as on UK: will they succeed in reforming #EU in a way that makes it easier/more attractive for UK to stay in.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Question: if meaningful vote amendment passes, but @UKParliament can’t agree on any particular #Brexit, does that increase chance of leaving with no deal? Good question!
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
There's chance UK public opinion might move more in favor of #Brexit if EU seen to be bullying in the talks, @CER_Grant says - #Galileo is one such flashpoint #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
There's chance UK public opinion might move more in favor of #Brexit if EU seen to be bullying in the talks, @CER_Grant says - #Galileo is one such flashpoint #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @CER_Grant says talks are likely to break down at some point, because it’s so hard for @theresa_may to find a position that her cabinet accept & is negotiable with EU.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @CER_Grant says UK econ sliding downhill gradually, but not enough to affect public opinion. And Swiss example shows that negotiations with EU, in which EU acts like bully, quickly erode support for EU membership - qv #Galileo
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @CER_Grant doesn’t think #Brexit can be stopped. Public opinion hasn’t shifted enough. Tory Party too hostile to staying in to offer a #PeoplesVote . Don’t see Labour offering a referendum: Corbyn is a lifelong eurosceptic, & northern MPs worry about FoM.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
“To get a “people’s vote” you need Labour, all opposition plus at least 10 Tories.” Doesn’t sound so implausible when you think about it like that. @Hugodixon @CER_EU pic.twitter.com/orEtSCKeFi
— Phillip Souta (@PhillipSouta) June 20, 2018
To get @peoplesvote_uk parliament will need to support it - signs of movement in @UKLabour - @Conservatives concerned by economy and integrity of UK - #Brexit is not inevitable, says @Hugodixon
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @Hugodixon says #Corbyn is moving on #PeoplesVote , but not there yet. Tories worry about economic impact of #Brexit, plus #NorthernIreland stability and Scottish #Indyref2 . Brexit not inevitable.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @Hugodixon says most likely is @theresa_may will limp on to get a deal, but bad one. @UKParliament won’t pull the plug, but might go for #PeoplesVote , in v different context (#Trump, #Putin etc) from 2016. Ppl can compare reality of in with reality of out.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Most likely scenario says Lord Kerr is a deal by UK surrender. General election also a possible scenario. UK could withdraw #Article50 notification, but probably only after a #PeoplesVote . But UK wd need more time - an extension of A50 period.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
There will be a meaningful vote whatever happens in parliament today, but #Brexit no deal becoming more likely, John Kerr says at @CER_EU roundtable 'Is Brexit inevitable?' with @Hugodixon @CER_Grant - watch live here: https://t.co/MaWcmSSdE2 #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable @Hugodixon - #Brexit not a done deal till next March. Stopping it needs #PeoplesVote . That would have no chance if Govt had viable plan, but it doesn’t. By almost 2 to 1, people want a vote on final deal.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Most likely scenario says Lord Kerr is a deal by UK surrender. General election also a possible scenario. UK could withdraw #Article50 notification, but probably only after a #PeoplesVote . But UK wd need more time - an extension of A50 period.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
There will be a meaningful vote whatever happens in parliament today, but #Brexit no deal becoming more likely, John Kerr says at @CER_EU roundtable 'Is Brexit inevitable?' with @Hugodixon @CER_Grant - watch live here: https://t.co/MaWcmSSdE2 #IsBrexitinevitable
— CER (@CER_EU) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Kerr: ‘meaningful vote’ is a sham battle; real battle will come in November or so. Growing risk of no deal over #NorthernIreland & #backstop. But infinitesimal chance of Parliament voting for that.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Lord Kerr says Cabinet is split, majority in @UKParliament opposed to current course towards #Brexit even if they think it’s inevitable, and the #Article50 talks are not making much progress.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
#IsBrexitinevitable Strong panel and good audience for today’s discussion at @CER_EU: Lord Kerr, @CER_Grant and @Hugodixon pic.twitter.com/dOz5CnJRCB
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) June 20, 2018
Roundtable on 'Is Brexit inevitable?' with .@Hugodixon
— CER (@CER_EU) June 19, 2018
.@CER_Grant and John Kerr
Wednesday, 20.6.18
13.00-14.30
You can watch the event live here: https://t.co/MaWcmSSdE2
Or follow the event here: #IsBrexitinevitable pic.twitter.com/6ZFYc7uKzg