The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion per annum – or £360 million a week.
A new CER report summarises its 2018 Ditchley Park conference, which brought together 50 leading economists to discuss 'The politics of slow growth in Europe'.
Even if the UK entered into an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, leaving the single market would mean new restrictions on British services exports.
The international role of the US dollar is deeply entrenched. To change that, Europe – and Germany in particular – would need to rethink some core economic policies.
The EU needs to become more flexible if it is to tackle current and future challenges effectively. But it should do so transparently, and remain inclusive.
Some EU member-states see the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as Russia’s latest anti-European weapon. But even if they are right, the threat can be mitigated.
If Britain quits the EU’s single energy market, it will have to invest more in electricity generation, pay higher prices and accept a bigger state role in the energy sector.
It is five years since Ukraine’s then president, Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country for Russia. Since then, some commentators say a lot has changed, while others say not much. But however confused the picture, Ukraine still merits attention.
Putin has dominated Russia since 1999. He now faces many problems, including how to transfer power, if at all. The West should prepare for change – or for no change.
