In the Press - Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn opens debate criticising government for postponing key vote – Politics live
11 December 2018
The Guardian
On the subject of a referendum, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, now sees that as more likely than any of the other possible resolutions to the Brexit crisis. "My take on Brexit probabilities. UK leaves with no deal, 15% chance. Parliament finally passes May's deal, slightly modified with EU 'assurances', 20%. Or it passes the deal with new political declaration sketching Norway, 20%. General election, 15%. Referendum, 30%."
In the Press - May delays Brexit deal vote but EU warns no renegotiation
11 December 2018
Daily Monitor
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform (CER) suggested May would only secure "very minor changes to her deal". "The substance of the Irish backstop will be unaltered. So I very much doubt that parliament will vote for the deal, when it has the chance to do so," he said.
In the Press - Manic Monday: Britain plunges deeper into Brexit crisis
11 December 2018
Aljazeera
Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said "It would be naive to think that the other 27 EU member states would be open" to substantial changes to the backstop and wider exit plan after months of fractious back-and-forth negotiations.
In the Press - Brexit: What happens next?
10 December 2018
Politico
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform think tank said he thinks the upper limit of any extension could be “mid-May” because of the upcoming European Parliament election, but in extremis the EU could be flexible. “Britain’s seats in the European Parliament have already been reallocated and it would be legally complicated to keep the U.K. in the EU beyond the elections,” Grant wrote in a blog for the CER. “But if the EU really wanted to prolong British membership by several months, there could be ways around the European Parliament problem; for example, the U.K. could appoint MPs as MEPs on an interim basis.”
In the Press - Brexit will cut thousands of jobs and forfeit billions in tax
10 December 2018
The Financial Times
Recent analysis by Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform suggests that under the provisions of a free trade agreement between Britain and the EU, UK exports of insurance and pension services will be 19 per cent lower and of other financial services 59 per cent lower. Functions and assets are already moving and the jobs will follow.
In the Press - How much has Brexit cost so far? The UK has lost a lot of cash since the referendum
10 December 2018
The Metro
In September, Centre for European Reform research claimed that Brexit was costing the UK economy an enormous £500 million a week. The research suggested that the UK economy was 2.5% smaller at that point and public finances were taking the £26 billion a year hit.
In the Press - Climbdowns and compromises on long road to a botched Brexit
09 December 2018
The Financial Times
“To her credit, she realised she needed to pivot away from [the] Lancaster House [speech],” said John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. “She recognised that if she didn’t compromise, Britain would end up with hard borders that would damage UK manufacturing industry and the Irish peace process.”
In the Press - It's time to dethrone the Bank of England's fractious grandees
08 December 2018
The Telegraph
This is odd, because as the Centre for European Reform’s Sam Lowe points out in a new analysis, the much bigger threat to trade from Brexit is to Britain’s services sector, accounting for nearly a half of all UK exports, of which around 40pc go to the rest of the EU.
In the Press - Burdened with Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May is on the brink
09 December 2018
Aljazeera
"I think there is this kind of empathy for Theresa May," said Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "There is this understanding that she has had this very difficult job, being pressed from both within her party and across the political spectrum. "Some European leaders have recognised her efforts to bring the deal home."
In the Press - The great Brexit breakdown
07 December 2018
The Wall Street Journal
The backstop “means all kinds of things to different people,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. “The right hates it because it leaves open the possibility of being locked in a customs union. The left hates it because it leaves Britain outside the EU but subject to the rules of the EU and without a voice or a vote.”