Research
Alemania, Rusia y Ucrania: de ‘punto de inflexión’ a ignorar lo esencial
03 February 2023
ES Global
La lentitud de Berlín a la hora de autorizar el envío de tanques Leopard 2 a Ucrania ha sido una mala noticia para este país, la seguridad europea y la propia Alemania.
CER Bulletin - 25th Anniversary Edition: Issue 148 - February/March 2023
01 February 2023
- The CER's mission is as vital as ever, Nick Butler
- 25 years on, the CER is more necessary than ever, David Miliband
- The CER at 25: Ahead of its times, Heather Grabbe
Turning down the heat on transatlantic tech
31 January 2023
The EU and US are adopting different approaches to trade and investment in technology with China. But their mutual mistrust is unwarranted.
Europe needs to dial down its anxiety over the Inflation Reduction Act
31 January 2023
Politico
There’s a whiff of hypocrisy about the EU’s response to America’s electric vehicle subsidies — a matter of do what I say rather than do what I do.
Germany, Russia and Ukraine: From 'Turning Point' to missing the point
27 January 2023
Germany’s slowness in authorising the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was bad news for Ukraine, European security and Germany itself. But other Western leaders should not be too smug.
Brexit isn't going away
26 January 2023
Encompass
It’s frustrating and boring, but economists must endlessly repeat themselves about Brexit. That’s because Brexiters continue to deny its obvious economic costs.
Early impacts of the post-Brexit immigration system on the UK labour market
17 January 2023
The end of the free movement has led to a shortfall of around 330,000 workers in Britain. Most are in less-skilled sectors of the economy.
Is European defence missing its moment?
16 January 2023
European defence budgets are increasing in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. But if member-states don’t co-ordinate their spending better, fragmentation will persist and Europe’s defence industry could weaken.
Can UK science and technology recover from Brexit?
09 January 2023
Encompass
When Boris Johnson agreed the Brexit divorce package with the EU, he promised it would unleash innovation, turning Britain into an agile “science superpower”. But rather than boost UK science and technology, Brexit has – so far – damaged it.
Comienza una nueva era de política exterior finlandesa
23 December 2022
ES Global
La invasión rusa de Ucrania ha provocado unos cambios sin precedentes en la política exterior finlandesa. La solicitud de ingreso en la OTAN no debe ser más que el principio.
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
21 December 2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.
En wéér is de eurozone niet voorbereid op een crisis
20 December 2022
Het Financieele Dagblad
De crisisbestendigheid van de eurozone wordt keer op keer op de proef gesteld. Dit brengt ook risico's voor de Nederlandse economie met zich mee.
Europe's central bankers should cherish their disagreements
20 December 2022
Promoting an open debate instead of forging consensus behind closed doors could make the European Central Bank’s decision-making culture more effective.
A new era of Finnish foreign policy begins
19 December 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented changes to Finnish foreign policy. Applying for NATO membership should only be the beginning.
Press
Downton Abbey venue forced to scrap weddings thanks to Brexit
05 February 2023
The Independent
A recent report by the think-tanks UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform found Brexit has caused a shortfall of around 330,000 workers in the UK. It said the ending of freedom of movement had “contributed significantly” to current labour shortages with hospitality, retail, construction and transportation hit the hardest.
Sunak 'risks full-scale trade war' with Brussels by scrapping EU laws
04 February 2023
The Observer
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said the worries in Brussels were real and ran deep. “The EU is getting seriously concerned about the impact of the retained EU law bill on the level playing field. It fears that if the UK abandons high social and environmental standards, its companies will have an unfair advantage over EU firms.
EU details plan to protect its net-zero industry – but questions remain
02 February 2023
Science|Business
“The sticking point is that the countries with deep pockets, like France and Germany, can open the subsidy spigots whereas other countries will be left behind, possibly creating unfair competition and fragmentation of the EU market,” commented Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform.
Brexit 3 years on: The UK's tech and innovation sector is yet to see the promised 'sunlit uplands'
01 February 2023
Euronews
"On the academic side, I would say that's been unequivocally bad, which any scientist or academic will tell you, and that's largely because of this dispute around Horizon and the fact that the UK still hasn't managed to get its membership," Zach Meyers, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said.
Why is the UK economy doing worse than the rest of the G7?
31 January 2023
The Guardian
Tougher post-Brexit migration rules are also adding to the shortages. The think-tanks UK in a Changing Europe, and the Centre for European Reform, estimate there that there is a shortfall of more than 300,000 workers due to the end to “free movement”.
Is it just coincidence that a gloomy IMF forecast arrives on the anniversary of Brexit?
31 January 2023
The New Statesman
John Springford of the Centre for Economic Reform published research in December that pointed to the hit Brexit made on the UK’s trade and investment, and suggested Britain’s GDP is up to 5.5 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been.
What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy?
31 January 2023
BBC News
A study by the think tanks Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests that there are 330,000 fewer workers in the UK as a result of Brexit. That may only be 1% of the total workforce - but sectors such as transport, hospitality and retail have been particularly hard hit.
EU IRA response
31 January 2023
Politico Brussels Playbook
The EU needs to dial down its anxiety, argues Zach Meyers from the Centre for European Reform in this opinion piece for POLITICO. “There is a whiff of unrealism and hypocrisy about European complaints regarding the IRA - a matter of do what I say rather than do what I do,” Meyers writes.
Labour wants to fix Brexit. Good luck with that
31 January 2023
The Washington Post
The Centre for European Reform’s John Springford developed an algorithm that compares data on UK performance with that of 22 other advanced economies; it is weighted to form a non-Brexiting (or doppelganger) UK for contrast. Updated results in December found that UK GDP is 5.5% lower than it would have been had Brexit not happened. Investment is 11% lower and goods trade 7% lower (services trade was mostly unaffected). That equates to roughly £40 billion ($50 billion) in lost tax revenue, which is making it harder for the government to cut taxes or meet other spending priorities.
Three years on, Britain still waits for Brexit dividend
30 January 2023
Reuters
"It's been more than a slow burn. It's been a serious reduction in economic performance," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank."If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP," he said, pointing to a string of dismal economic data.
Podcasts
CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market
25 January 2023
In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Jonathan Portes and John Springford discuss their recent post-Brexit labour market analysis.
CER podcast: The cost of Brexit
11 January 2023
In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Helmi Pillai interviews John Springford about his most recent cost of Brexit analysis.
CER podcast: The implications of Russia's war against Ukraine
15 December 2022
In this year’s final episode of the CER podcast, our researchers unpack the most significant event of the past year, Russia’s war on Ukraine.
CER podcast: Will the EU unblock Hungary's funds?
30 November 2022
Camino Mortera-Martínez and Sander Tordoir discuss the dispute between Hungary and the EU.
CER podcast: Will the Commission's fiscal rules plan work?
18 November 2022
In this week’s Centre for European Reform podcast, John Springford, our deputy director, and Sander Tordoir, senior economist at the CER, discuss the EU’s fiscal rules.
Events
Discussion on 'Monetary policy after the energy shock' with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
16 February 2023
London
Please email [email protected] if you'd like further information and to register to attend.
CER/Kreab breakfast on 'How to strengthen the EU?'
29 November 2022
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Lars Danielsson, Permanent Representative of Sweden to the EU
Conference on 'Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war'
18 November 2022 to 19 November 2022
Ditchley Park, UK
Speakers included: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Marco Buti, Benoît Cœuré, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli and Martin Sandbu
CER/Kreab breakfast on 'The future of Europe'
08 November 2022
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament
Breakfast on 'Labour's plans for UK foreign policy'
02 November 2022
London
With David Lammy, Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Affairs, UK