Research
Will the Retained EU Law Bill undermine Sunak's Windsor deal?
30 March 2023
In its current form the Retained EU Law Bill is incompatible with the Windsor Framework. Rishi Sunak should make big changes to the REUL bill or scrap it altogether.
It's Groundhog Day for EU fiscal rule reform
30 March 2023
Politico
A desperately needed reform of the EU’s fiscal rules is finally underway.The current rules are too complicated — they impose unrealistic demands on some countries, and they lead to overspending in economic booms and austerity in recessions.
Judy Asks: Is Hungary a reliable EU and NATO member?
30 March 2023
Carnegie Europe
Viktor Orbán benefits from EU and NATO membership while undermining these organizations’ core values. Hungary’s allies must find ways to restrain Budapest and not be held hostage.
The EU and Turkey after the elections: The start of a new chapter?
29 March 2023
Whatever the outcome of the elections, Turkey and the EU will have shared challenges to address. But the result will define the likely balance between co-operation and confrontation for years.
Like it or not, the EU needs American cloud services
23 March 2023
Encompass
As industrial competition with the US and China heats up, European businesses need to be more innovative to keep pace.
Integrated Review Refresh 2023 – towards a more pragmatic chapter in UK foreign policy?
21 March 2023
The UK in a Changing Europe
Luigi Scazzieri analyses the recent ‘refresh’ of the 2021 Integrated Review, arguing that it marks a new more pragmatic chapter in UK foreign policy and underscores a renewed willingness to engage with the EU.
Europe needs both fiscal and energy solidarity
14 March 2023
EU governments should curb energy subsidies and raise support for clean energy investment. The EU should expand common borrowing to fund green investment: this would accelerate the energy transition.
Energy prices, not US subsidies, are Europe's biggest headache
14 March 2023
EurActiv
The EU should put more effort into lowering energy costs rather than subsidising industry in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act, argue John Springford and Elisabetta Cornago.
Can the EU afford to drive out American cloud services?
02 March 2023
Some EU countries want to stifle foreign cloud computing services. These countries’ concerns are not irrational. But disadvantaging America’s cloud giants will do Europe more harm than good.
Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU?
01 March 2023
The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. It has strengthened von der Leyen and Sunak. But the Retained EU Law bill promises trouble.
The Protocol deal is a win for Sunak – and the EU
27 February 2023
The Spectator
Soon after Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British government demanded changes to the Protocol.
Ditchley conference report: Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war
24 February 2023
In November, the CER held its annual economics conference on the macroeconomic consequences of the pandemic and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
A year of war in Europe: The balance sheet
22 February 2023
Since Russia attacked Ukraine, the CER has tracked the war’s effect on the protagonists, the EU, NATO and other powers. What conclusions can be drawn from the past year?
Finland should prepare to join NATO on its own
16 February 2023
Last month, Turkey threatened to block Sweden’s NATO membership, while indicating its support for Finland’s accession to the alliance. If Turkey continues to block Swedish membership, Finland should join NATO alone.
The impact of the war in Ukraine: Annual report 2022
10 February 2023
The CER's annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe. The report then highlights some of the CER's most important publications and events from 2022.
Hungary, Poland and the EU: It's the money, stupid?
08 February 2023
After years playing by the legal book, the EU is now using its purse strings to curb democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary. This is a good tactic, but not a sustainable strategy in the long-term.
Press
EU: Estonia spat underlies challenges for Ukraine arms fund
29 March 2023
Deutsche Welle
The implication is that Tallinn is taking the opportunity to modernize its stocks with the help of EU funds rather than domestic assets, which other member states are not doing, Luigi Scazzieri, an analyst from the Centre for European Reform, told DW."Clearly there's annoyance in some countries at the way Estonia has used the fund," he said. "Mainly because if everyone used the fund to be reimbursed for new equipment, then the money in the fund would actually run out very, very quickly."
Boris Johnson likely to remain a constant in UK political life
29 March 2023
Arab News
Estimates previously published by the Centre for European Reform, which found that Brexit cost the UK £33 billion ($40 billion) in lost trade in the second quarter of last year alone and more than £40 billion in tax losses in the year to the end of June 2022. The same research showed that the UK economy was 5.5 percent smaller in June last year than it would have been without Brexit.
Brexit damage as big as Covid, says OBR – predicting five years before incomes recover
26 March 2023
The Independent
In December, the Centre for European Reform (CER) found that Brexit cost the UK a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. The CER also estimated the tax loss from Brexit at around £40bn.The research – first shared with The Independent – showed that by June of this year Britain’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the EU.
Why does the UK have highest inflation in G7 and is Brexit a factor?
22 March 2023
The Guardian
Research from the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests Brexit could still have led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the UK labour force, after taking into account how the workforce might have looked if Britain had remained in the EU.
Why is UK inflation higher than other countries?
22 March 2023
BBC News
A study by the think-tanks Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests there are 330,000 fewer workers in the UK as a result of Brexit, with sectors such as transport, hospitality and retail have been particularly hard hit.
German bid to tweak EU gas car phase-out peeves partners
21 March 2023
Deutsche Welle
Wissing's demands are controversial because few see e-fuels as a viable solution to reducing passenger car emissions, Elisabetta Cornago, an EU climate policy expert from the Centre for European Reform, told DW on Tuesday. "Studies indicate that e-fuels in 2035 would be able to power less than 5% of the EU fleet, proving to be a distraction from the electrification of transport," she said.
Winter is gone. But can we really say Europe's energy crisis is over?
21 March 2023
Euronews
Elisabetta Cornago, a senior energy researcher at the Centre for European Reform (CER), described the savings as an "impressive response" but said some of the changes, particularly the industrial cutbacks, were temporary rather than "structural.""The behavioural response was driven by price level and the fear of how prices will impact your life. These fears and concerns led consumers to stay on the conservative side and try to limit the hours they had the heating on," Cornago told Euronews.
If it’s growth the chancellor wants, here’s one suggestion: Rejoin the EU
19 March 2023
The Observer
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform estimates that the negative impact of gratuitously imposing trade barriers on our nearest trading partners – via higher import prices, loss of vital immigrant workers, and general uncertainty affecting business confidence – had cost our economy 5.5% of GDP by the summer of 2022.
EU kontert Subventionspläne Chinas und der USA
17 March 2023
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Experten der Berliner Denkfabrik Centre for European Reform können den Plänen deshalb einiges abgewinnen. Ihnen zufolge sendet Europa mit den Plänen "ein wichtiges politisches Signal, dass die EU sich nicht kampflos deindustrialisieren wird und dass die Dekarbonisierung eine Chance für eine grüne Industrialisierung ist."
Made in the UK advertising campaign 'trying to hide Brexit mayhem'
19 March 2023
The National
Research by the Centre for European Reform think-tank in 2019 suggested that Brexit had shrunk Britain’s economy by 2.9% and said exports had fallen by 3.4%.
Podcasts
CER podcast: Russian hybrid threats
24 March 2023
In this week's episode of the CER podcast Ian Bond discusses hybrid threats with Helmi Pillai.
CER podcast: What does the Windsor Framework mean for EU-UK relations?
10 March 2023
In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Charles Grant is joined by Catherine Barnard to discuss the recently agreed Windsor Framework.
CER podcast: One year of war in Ukraine
24 February 2023
In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Ian Bond discusses the Ukraine-Russia war with Sir Richard Shireff & Dr Olesya Khromeychuk
Ask CER - Episode 8: Inflation Reduction Act, Qatargate and Iran
09 February 2023
You asked, we answered: the eighth episode of our 'Ask CER' podcast series.
CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market
25 January 2023
In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Jonathan Portes and John Springford discuss their recent post-Brexit labour market analysis.
Events
Hybrid discussion on 'Delivering REPowerEU: What more needs to be done?'
14 March 2023
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Matthew Baldwin, Elisabetta Cornago and John Springford. Watch the video of the event here.
Hybrid discussion on 'How could the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement be improved?'
09 March 2023
Hybrid London/Zoom
With Catherine Barnard, Stefaan De Rynck, Iain Martin and Ivan Rogers
Discussion on 'The EU institutions: One year into the war and (just over) one year away from the elections'
08 March 2023
London
With Klaus Welle
CER/Clifford Chance hybrid discussion on 'Industrial policy and the future of state aid'
01 March 2023
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Roger Coelho, Ben Smulders and Sigrid de Vries
Discussion on 'Monetary policy after the energy shock'
16 February 2023
London
With Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank.
Watch the video of the event here.