Research
A new EU fiscal regime could make the ECB truly independent
30 June 2022
The ECB must be free to target inflation and prevent spreads rising without encouraging fiscal irresponsibility. A new, credible fiscal regime is needed, with a permanent EU green investment fund at its centre.
Four reasons why the UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol bill is a mistake
27 June 2022
The UK promises to “fix” the Northern Ireland protocol with unilateral legislation. This will be a major step backwards in trying to resolve genuine practical problems under the protocol.
¿Por qué va a utilizar nadie la moneda digital de un banco central?
24 June 2022
ESglobal
Los bancos centrales tienen prisa por empezar las pruebas de una moneda digital propia. Quizá parece una cosa emocionante. Pero seguramente no ofrecen a los usuarios casi ninguna ventaja de la que no disfruten ya.
¿Qué sabemos hasta ahora del coste del Brexit?
17 June 2022
ESglobal
En mayo de 2020, el periodista James Forsyth, que goza de buenos contactos, escribió en The Spectator que el gobierno británico se encontraba cómodo con la idea de abandonar la UE sin un acuerdo.
Britain needs to face up to the cost of Brexit
16 June 2022
Encompass
The UK debate about Brexit’s impact on the economy has ranged from non-existent to unserious. Labour is avoiding the subject, to try to regain lost voters in pro-Brexit constituencies, and the government immediately changes the subject to vaccines or free trade deals.
Letters: The Brexit effect
16 June 2022
Prospect
In Tom Clark’s excellent round-up of the economic effects of Brexit, he noted that exports to the EU “look almost unaffected on the headline numbers.” As ever with statistics, it depends on how you cut it.
Judy Asks: Will distrust among EU leaders fail Ukraine?
16 June 2021
Carnegie Europe
EU leaders exaggerated their unity at the start of this crisis. They should not now overstate their differences or suspect each other’s motives.
Have we passed the high-water mark of European unity on Ukraine?
15 June 2022
LSE blog
EU leaders presented a united response in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet as the war continues, this unity is coming under strain.
What can we know about the cost of Brexit so far?
09 June 2022
The UK's GDP is 5.2 per cent smaller than a modelled ‘doppelgänger’ UK that did not leave the EU; investment is 13.7 per cent lower, and goods trade, 13.6 per cent lower. Most of those costs are down to Brexit.
Why would anyone use a central bank digital currency?
07 June 2022
Central banks are rushing to pilot their own digital currencies. These may sound exciting. But they may offer users few compelling benefits they do not already enjoy.
En defensa de Bélgica: por qué sus jueces no tienen la culpa de las fracturas de Europa
06 June 2022
EL Confidencial
La falta de confianza de los gobiernos de los Veintisiete no se explica por la euroorden de Puigdemont. Las crisis de la última década han resquebrajado la unidad europea.
Bulletin issue 144 - June/July 2022
30 May 2022
- Will the EU rethink enlargement?, Luigi Scazzieri
- Can the UK keep up with Europe on digital competition?, Zach Meyers
- Europe needs a China strategy, Ian Bond, François Godement, Hanns Maull, Volker Stanzel
We must uphold online competition at home, or we risk lagging behind the EU
25 May 2022
City A.M
Right now in the European Union, law-makers are putting the finishing touches on the Digital Markets Act – a landmark law which will upend big tech firms’ business models to improve competition online.
State of the Union: The EU, three months into Putin's war
24 May 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted priorities and frayed alliances in the EU. It has also created winners and losers in Brussels.
Press
Global Corporate Tax: France says EU can bypass Hungarian veto
30 June 2022
Euronews
According to Zach Meyers, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), "if the French presidency gives up on an EU-wide directive to implement the minimum global corporate tax because of Hungary’s veto, then any alternative will be far less legally robust.""The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has already ruled that EU member states cannot stop corporates from taking advantage of lower tax rates available in other member states: when the UK was a member of the EU, it proposed to do this, and the regime was struck down."
Brexit: UK should rejoin single market as quitting EU ‘biggest piece of self-inflicted harm,’ says Sadiq Khan
29 June 2022
Evening Standard
Another analysis, by the Centre for European Reform, estimated that the UK was being hit with a £31 billion blow to GDP from Brexit in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Counting the cost of the Brexit vote six years on
27 June 2022
The Sunday Times
The doppelgänger approach has been used extensively by John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. His latest update, covering the period to the end of last year, was published earlier this month, and the results are striking.
‘What have we done?’: six years on, UK counts the cost of Brexit
25 June 2022
The Guardian
Figures from the Centre for European Reform show that the Brexit vote has already depressed economic growth. The independent think-tank said that by the end of last year the economy was 5% – or £31bn – smaller than if the UK had stayed in the EU.
Brexit : six ans d’effritement de l’économie britannique
23 June 2022
Le Monde
John Springford, du groupe de réflexion Centre for European Reform, a comparé les statistiques britanniques à celles d’un groupe de vingt-deux pays développés. Il en conclut que depuis le troisième trimestre 2016 (juste après le référendum), la croissance britannique a été inférieure de 5,2 % à celle du groupe témoin, les investissements inférieurs de 13,7 %, le commerce de marchandises de 13,6 % et celui des services de 7,9 %. Cela ne signifie pas que l’économie britannique a stagné depuis 2016, mais simplement qu’elle a moins prospéré que celle des pays témoins.
Brexit will keep wages down and make UK poorer in decade ahead, study finds
22 June 2022
The Independent
It follows a recent study by the Centre for European Reform (CER) which found Brexit was “largely to blame” for billions being lost in trade and tax revenues in recent years.
The think tank said that by the end of last year, Britain’s economy was 5.2 per cent – or £31bn – smaller than it would have been without Brexit and the Covid pandemic.
“We can’t blame Brexit for all of the 5.2 per cent GDP shortfall … but it’s apparent that Brexit is largely to blame,” said John Springford, author of the CER study.
The think tank said that by the end of last year, Britain’s economy was 5.2 per cent – or £31bn – smaller than it would have been without Brexit and the Covid pandemic.
“We can’t blame Brexit for all of the 5.2 per cent GDP shortfall … but it’s apparent that Brexit is largely to blame,” said John Springford, author of the CER study.
Five Star party splits as Ukraine war shakes Italian politics
22 June 2022
Financial Times
Luigi Scazzieri, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the war looked set to emerge as the prism through which other domestic political disputes will be viewed as next year’s general elections draw closer. “The war becomes this all-encompassing phenomenon that has all these hot button consequences in terms of energy, food security, migration and economic recession,” he said. “It’s becoming a very big issue that has divisions within parties as well as between them.”
How close are the Western Balkans to joining the European Union?
22 June 2022
Euronews
This largely explains the delay for Serbia "as it is not in President Vucic's interests to enact reforms that EU membership requires, as these would undermine his patronage system and his hold on power," Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews.
Commission’s Big Tech probes may face hurdles in Qualcomm’s wake
20 June 2022
Politico
“The Commission’s process comes across as highly questionable,” said Zach Meyers, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, which counts Qualcomm among its corporate donors. “There will undoubtedly be concerns within the Commission legal service that these problems might have been endemic at the time and could lead to other Commission decisions being vulnerable to appeal.”
Brussels set to endorse Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership
17 June 2022
Euronews
Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office of the Centre for European Reform (CER), described enlargement as the "trickiest" issue facing the EU and noted that the Commission's early lobbying on member states for Ukraine membership "is working.""Many think that Ukraine is not ready to join the EU yet, but they know the EU cannot afford to keep it in the waiting room for years, as it has done with other candidates like North Macedonia," she said.
Podcasts
CER podcast: What next on the path for Ukraine's EU membership?
01 July 2022
Ian Bond spoke to three senior figures involved in Ukraine's application for EU membership, who discussed what's next on the path for Ukraine becoming an EU member-state.
CER podcast: Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes?
14 June 2022
In this week's CER podcast Rosie Giorgi spoke to economists John Springford and Thomas Sampson about how Brexit has impacted the UK economy.
CER podcast: Unpacking the EU's new tech laws - and the UK's answer to them
27 May 2022
In this week’s CER podcast Rosie Giorgi speaks to Zach Meyers about the motivations behind the new laws, the companies that will be affected and what the UK is doing to promote digital competition and online safety.
CER podcast: Where will Macron now take France and Europe?
11 May 2022
We discussed Macron's re-election and where French and EU policy was likely to be headed in his second term.
CER podcast: Water scarcity: Libya's forgotten issue
22 April 2022
Megan Ferrando spoke to Malak Altaeb about water scarcity in Libya.
Events
Hybrid discussion on 'Ukraine's place - in Europe?'
23 June 2022
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Natalie Forsyuk, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Katarína Mathernová and Mariia Mezentseva
Dinner on 'The UK-EU energy relationship'
14 June 2022
London
With Greg Hands, Minister of State for Energy, Clean Growth and Climate Change
Dinner on 'The future of UK finance'
31 May 2022
London
With Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England
CER/IMF seminar on 'A greener labour market: Employment, policies, and economic transformation'
26 May 2022
Hybrid London/Zoom
Niels-Jakob Hansen, World Economic Outlook economist, discusses Chapter 3 of the IMF's Spring 2022 WEO. Watch the video here.
Hybrid discussion on 'Looking ahead to China's 20th National Party Congress'
05 May 2022
Hybrid London/Zoom
With James Miles, China Writer-at-large, The Economist. Watch the opening remarks here.