Research
China shock 2.0: The cost of Germany's complacency
20 May 2026
Germany is ground zero of the second China shock, but Berlin is not fighting back, even as the shock erodes the country’s engineering sectors that are vital to its economic security.
The EU is trying to speak the language of power in Africa, but what is it saying?
01 May 2026
Africa is currently the continent with the largest number of armed conflicts in the world – over 50 – representing 40 per cent of all wars globally. This is a 45 per cent increase since 2020.
What Orbán’s departure means for Hungary and for Europe
14 April 2026
Hungary’s voters have ended Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. Tisza’s win is a unique chance to restore democracy – and a time-limited opportunity for the EU to emerge stronger.
Energy shock 2.0: Lessons from 2022 for the Hormuz crisis
13 April 2026
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Europe will face as serious an energy crisis as it did in 2022. This time, energy poverty policies must be more targeted, and electrification more ambitious.
One year liberation day: The delusion of transatlantic economic divorce
07 April 2026
A year after Liberation Day, Washington and Brussels are still fighting each other – not China.
WTO reform after Yaoundé: What next for the multilateral trade order?
02 April 2026
The failure of the WTO’s ‘reform ministerial’ deepens the strain on the global trade system. But it also points to a possible path for future co-operation among coalitions of the willing.
War in Iran: Who wins and who loses?
20 March 2026
The attack on Iran by the US and Israel is good news for Russia but bad news for Europe, including Ukraine, and ultimately for the US itself. China could emerge as a long-term winner. Europeans must look after their own interests, regardless of Trump’s wrath.
How to build public support for defence spending in Europe
10 March 2026
Strategies for building a national consensus around higher defence investments and the trade-offs required.
The impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK
09 March 2026
A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.
Europe's door to Chinese tech investment is still ajar
04 March 2026
Europe has learned to block Chinese acquisitions of strategic assets. Chinese factories in Europe now pose harder economic security challenges.
Articles
«Un retour à court terme du Royaume-Uni dans l’UE n’est politiquement pas réaliste»
07 May 2026
Le Temps
Le premier ministre britannique, Keir Starmer, multiplie les mesures pour rapprocher son pays de Bruxelles, par «intérêt national» pour contrer les effets désastreux du Brexit. Mais la question européenne reste ultrasensible outre-Manche. L'analyse de Charles Grant, directeur du Centre for European Reform.
Taking the Pulse: Is it worth it for Europeans to placate Trump?
07 May 2026
Carnegie Europe
A year and change into President Trump’s second term, it has become abundantly clear that appeasement only leads to short-term wins.
Magyar is up against the clock in Hungary
16 April 2026
Financial Times
Brussels and Budapest have a rare and fleeting chance to improve Europe’s defence and correct the bloc’s dysfunction.
Viktor Orbán is gone. What does his fall mean for Europe?
13 April 2026
The Guardian
Hungary’s return to democracy will be hard. But the impact of Péter Magyar’s decisive victory could be profound, inside the country and beyond.
Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran war?
09 April 2026
Carnegie Europe
Donald Trump has repeatedly bashed NATO and European allies, threatening to annex Canada and Greenland and deploring their lack of enthusiasm for his war of choice in Iran. Is this latest round of abuse the final straw?
How has Brexit affected immigration to the UK?
19 March 2026
Encompass
Vote Leave made the end of free movement a central plank of their referendum campaign, and promised that Britain would introduce a ‘points-based system’ if it left the EU.
Press
The other trade war
26 May 2026
Financial Times
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, warns her not to skirt around recent tensions: “If Reiche pretends like this is a 2016, not 2026, China trip, Chinese diplomats will put Germany in checkmate before the conversation starts.”
Reiche erwarten schwierige Themen in Peking
26 May 2026
Tagesschau
Der China-Schock trifft die deutsche Industrie besonders hart. Deutschland ist nach einer Studie der Londoner Denkfabrik Center for European Reform sogar das Epizentrum der Schockwelle. Und obwohl das die wirtschaftliche Sicherheit des Landes in so wichtigen Branchen, wie Auto oder Chemie untergrabe, wehre sich die Bundesregierung nicht, sagen die Autoren.
Major EU countries push for tougher China policy ahead of Brussels debate
25 May 2026
South China Morning Post
A report published last week by the Centre for European Reform estimated that more than 400,000 German jobs tied to exports to China may already have been lost to China. The paper describes a reality where Brussels trade officials are overwhelmed by the volume of dumping and subsidy complaints, asking for those departments responsible to be beefed up.
La Cina si sta mangiando il Made in Italy (e l’Europa): perché abbiamo paura di difenderci?
25 May 2026
Corriere della Sera
Quello che si configura - secondo Brad Setser e Sander Tordoir - è un secondo choc cinese per il sistema industriale europeo. Il primo all'inizio del secolo riguardava beni a più basso valore aggiunto, giocattoli o tessile. Ma stavolta è diverso. Più pesante, più capillare.
China takes over Europe’s decaying car factories
23 May 2026
The Telegraph
The deals could make sense for the European side, says Sander Tordoir, of the Centre for European Reform, but only if Brussels, Berlin and Paris ensure there are strings attached.“It would be naive to sell Germany’s excess car plants to Chinese competitors without setting any type of conditions, both on value-add requirements to employ German workers and engineers, and for Chinese battery and EV producers to engage in technology transfer,” he says.
Tweede China-schok raakt Europese industrie midscheeps
23 May 2026
Het Financieele Dagblad
Het is volgens een nieuw rapport van het Centre for European Reform (CER) een duidelijk voorbeeld van wat de auteurs de ‘China shock 2.0’ noemen. De eerste schok was na 2001, toen China toetrad tot de Wereldhandelsorganisatie (WTO). Dankzij snelle industrialisatie en lage lonen veroverden goedkope Chinese producten daarna de wereldmarkt. De gevolgen werden overal gevoeld, maar vooral in de Verenigde Staten kreeg de industrie een flinke klap.
The European cars made in China
22 May 2026
Financial Times
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, says there is “a real risk that significant chunks of the engineering, production, innovation and supply chains in automotive will end up concentrating even more heavily in China”.
“The EU has to decide whether it is willing to confront China with a tougher trade and industrial policy . . . that incentivises not only Chinese producers to produce in Europe, but also their own car multinationals to continue producing in Europe.”
“The EU has to decide whether it is willing to confront China with a tougher trade and industrial policy . . . that incentivises not only Chinese producers to produce in Europe, but also their own car multinationals to continue producing in Europe.”
La amenaza del dragón
23 May 2026
La Vanguardia
Un reciente estudio del Centro para la Reforma Europea (CER) y el Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores (CFR), titulado gráficamente “Impacto de China 2.0: El coste de la complacencia alemana”, advierte que el modelo de crecimiento de China representa una amenaza directa especialmente para la industria alemana, ya que golpea directamente a su núcleo -automóviles, maquinaria, productos químicos, aeronaves y tecnologías limpias-, y aconseja a Berlín que apoye las propuestas de mayores salvaguardias e instrumentos de defensa comercial de la UE.
Chinas Industrie: Die Gefahr, die in Deutschland notorisch ignoriert wird
22 May 2026
Capital
In Form einer Studie unter dem Titel „China shock 2.0. – the cost of Germany’s complacency“, übersetzt so viel wie „die Kosten der deutschen Selbstzufriedenheit“.Darin vertreten die Ökonomen Sander Tordoir und Brad Setser die These, Deutschlands Unternehmen litten nicht vornehmlich unter verkrusteten Strukturen, hohen Kosten und fehlender Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Sondern sie würden plattgemacht und an den Rand gedrängt von einer immer übermächtigeren chinesischen Industrie.
Wat één Chinees bedrijfje zegt over de zwakte van Europa’s buitenlandbeleid
22 May 2026
NRC Handelsblad
Neem dit rapport waarin economen van het Centre for European Reform beargumenteren dat Europa, Duitsland voorop, op dit moment ten prooi vallen aan ‘China Shock 2.0’. De eerste zette twee decennia geleden de kaalslag van de Amerikaanse industrie in gang (overigens mede doordat Amerikaanse bedrijven naar China verkasten).
Podcasts
CER podcast: Unpacking Europe: How Europe is responding in Lebanon and Palestine
13 May 2026
Thomas Maddock spoke with Zizette Darkazally and Schams El Ghoneimi about Europe's response to conflict in Lebanon and Palestine.
CER podcast: Unpacking Europe: Is the EU-US trade deal unravelling?
06 May 2026
Anton Spisak spoke with Sam Lowe about the renewed EU-US trade tensions.
CER podcast: Unpacking Europe: Hungary's landslide election outcome
15 April 2026
Zselyke Csaky spoke with Zsuzsanna Szelényi about Hungary's landslide election outcome.
CER podcast: Unpacking Europe: The future of EU-Türkiye relations
26 March 2026
Thomas Maddock spoke with Galip Dalay and Senem Aydin-Düzgit about the future of EU-Türkiye relations and how geopolitical upheaval is changing the relationship.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Four years of war in Ukraine
24 February 2026
Ian Bond spoke with Andy Hunder and Victoria Vdovychenko about the economic, military and societal situation in Ukraine, four years since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Events
Dinner on 'The euro area economy'
13 May 2026
London
With Philip Lane, Member, Executive Board, European Central Bank. Read Philip Lane's speech here.
CER Brussels conference: Can Europe be a global power?
18 March 2026
Brussels
With a keynote speech by Piotr Serafin, European Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud and Public Administration. Watch videos of the event here.
CER/Embassy of Italy lunch on 'NATO's deterrence and defence posture in a changing security landscape'
25 February 2026
London
With Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair, Military Committee, NATO
CER/KAS hybrid launch of 'EU-UK relations: Will 2026 be the year to reset the reset?'
04 February 2026
Hybrid London/Zoom
With Ian Bond, Jannike Wachowiak and Kai Whittaker
CER/Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient growth: Aligning productivity and security'
10 December 2025
Brussels
With Aslak Berg, Zach Meyers, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute and Anna Stellinger