In the Press - If parliament rejects, what next?
16 November 2018
The Financial Times
If parliament rejects the Brexit deal agreed between the UK and the EU, think-tank the Centre for European Reform has some ideas about what could come next. A CER report outlines five possible options: no deal, renegotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second Brexit referendum, or MPs finally accepting the deal.
In the Press - Can Britain still slam the brakes on Brexit?
16 November 2018
Channel 4 News
When you look at all the options (summarised here by Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform… there’s also some gaming of the scenarios here by Stefanie Bolzen and Philip Crowley) you could see how options once thought impossible could look plausible given the blocked-off paths everywhere else.
In the Press - Theresa May must come clean: Her Brexit deal is a dog's breakfast (but is still the best thing on a desultory menu)
14 November 2018
The Telegraph
As John Springford at the Centre for European Reform has written, the choice is very clear: remain in an all-UK customs union, or leave and accept the need for a customs border in the Irish Sea that leaves Northern Ireland in a different relationship to the EU.
In the Press - Theresa May enters Brexit endgame from position of strength
14 November 2018
The Financial Times
The Irish-only backstop has not so much disappeared as been folded into the all-UK one. As trade expert Sam Lowe said in a tweet: “[Northern Ireland]-specific ultimate insurance policy will live; will just be a question of how many law degrees you need to find it.”
In the Press - Brussels seeks permanent post-Brexit customs union
13 November 2018
Politico
Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said the constraints of an UK-EU customs union were substantial. “Whilst in a customs union with the EU, the UK will be required to fully align its external tariff with that of the EU’s, meaning it cannot lower or remove tariffs either unilaterally or as part of a new free trade agreement.”
In the Press - We think the EU will be hit by Brexit — but we don't get it
13 November 2018
The Evening Standard
So what could the political declaration look like? Well, according to the Centre for European Reform think-tank, chief negotiator Michel Barnier says that it could include “points of convergence” such as foreign policy, military cooperation, and UK participation in research programmes after 2020. But there will be no clarity on the future UK/EU economic partnership.
In the Press - Is Donald Trump right? US military should be permanently stationed in Eastern Europe to protect NATO from Russia, allies argue
13 November 2018
Newsweek
“If you look in the cyber arena, laying aside the disinformation operations, if you look at the traditional cyber attacks that we worry about, the attacks on our national critical infrastructure and so on, a lot of the tools you would need to deal with some of these things are not NATO tools, they are the kinds of tools the EU has or is developing, to deal with the resilience of electrical grids that stretch across Europe and so on,” said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform.
In the Press - Brexit is happening. The EU has bigger things to worry about
13 November 2018
Bloomberg
“It’s likely we will see populists use the EU as a scapegoat for all the misgivings they have about politics domestically, just as we saw in the UK’s EU referendum,” says Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a Brussels-based research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a pro-EU policy group. “The whole election campaign will be about what the European project is about, what European values mean now.”
In the Press - Whether transition extension or backstop, Britain needs to embrace the consequences
12 November 2018
Financial Times
“Transition extension or embracing the backstop — only exist to further postpone the inevitable. The UK will eventually need to embrace the consequences of its decisions; if it wants a Canada-style trade agreement then Northern Ireland will require its own distinct relationship with the EU.” (Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, in The Times).
In the Press - Splits threaten No 10 Brexit hopes
12 November 2018
The Times
Writing in The Times Red Box today Sam Lowe, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, warns that Britain will face huge challenges if it has to use the backstop. He says there will be export checks and delays at the border.
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Future events
Conference on 'The future of the EU: Democracy under siege'
28 November 2018
With a keynote speech by Pierre Moscovici