We need a new entente cordiale, but it won’t happen any time soon

Press quote (The Telegraph)
04 December 2021

According to analysis by the Centre for European Reform, UK goods trade was 11.2pc, or £8.5bn, lower in September than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.

This kind of modelling is of course highly contentious; so much depends on the assumptions used. The pandemic has also hugely complicated the picture, making it virtually impossible to disentangle Brexit effects from the supply chain disruptions caused by Covid. The CER assessment none the less broadly correlates with forecasts made by both the independent Office for Budget Responsibility and official estimates while Theresa May was prime minister that the economy will be 4-5pc smaller by 2030 than otherwise. Spread over such a long time frame, this may not seem very much – less than half a percentage point a year. Yet cumulatively, it is still a major loss.