Why Trump's letter to NATO won't shift EU's course on Russia
Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, sees a gap between Trump's rhetoric and his actions.
"The EU has dramatically reduced its reliance on Russian oil and gas," he told DW.
Ironically, he notes that the two countries doing their best not to phase out their dependence are not only friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also with Trump.
"If Trump wants the EU to stop buying oil from Russia, then leaning on his best friends would probably be a good move. I haven't seen any sign that he's doing that, however," he told DW.
...Bond argues that Trump's letter tries to shift responsibility away from the White House. "This seems to me like Trump is looking for an excuse for continuing not to do anything. We've gone through the phase of 'I'll give him another two weeks,' and months later, Putin has still not stopped the war. Now we're into the stage of 'I would do this, but I need my allies to act first.'"
...Bond argued that by setting such a high bar for US sanctions, requiring all NATO members to end Russian oil and gas imports, Trump may have created conditions that are impossible to meet, shifting the blame onto the Europeans. That risks delaying the Trump administration's alignment with the EU just as Brussels finalizes its 19th sanction package against Russia.
Bond points out that Trump's economic threats are not always connected to real strategy, but also to blackmail. "It's very telling that almost the only country in the world on which Trump has not imposed tariffs is Russia," he said. "Trump managed to impose tariffs on uninhabited islands in April, so I don't see any reason why he shouldn't impose tariffs on Russia."
...Bond argues that Europe still has more tools to constrain the Kremlin, such as going after the so-called "shadow fleet of aging oil tankers the Russia is allegeldy using to circumvent oil sanctions.
"More pressure on the [Russian] shadow fleets would be a good thing. The UK sanctioned another 70 ships last week," he explained.
He also wants to see the EU put more pressure on the US, especially when it comes to oilfield services. "The company SLB, formerly Schlumberger, has continued to invest in Russia. That is helping Moscow preserve production capacity at a time when we should be trying to reduce it."
...As Bond put it, Europe must keep doing what it can: cutting Russia's revenues, closing loopholes and pushing the White House to go further. The war in Ukraine will be shaped less by Trump's Truth Social posts than by Europe's ability to maintain unity and convince the Kremlin that time is not on its side.