Bad peace is worse than war, Europe warns as Ukraine talks advance

Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said Putin has shown no interest in compromise. Bond predicted that Trump’s envoy will hear in Moscow that the proposal is merely “a good starting point” but that the “root causes” of the conflict need addressing — meaning, in Putin’s view, Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to make independent foreign and security policy choices.

“I am certain that had the 28-point plan been accepted by Ukraine and its European partners, Putin would have asked for more,” Bond said.

...Bond said questions remain about real commitments. “President Macron referred to ‘security and training’. That sounds like quite a small operation,” Bond said. “It is unclear whether Macron agreed his line with the U.K. and Turkey before he spoke or if he is just speculating.”

The coalition is deliberately operating outside NATO structures to avoid triggering Moscow’s insistence that alliance troops have no place in Ukraine. But Bond warned this distinction may be meaningless in practice.

“This will make no difference to Russia’s attitude: They will view ’troops from NATO countries’ as a synonym for ‘NATO troops,’” he said. In any case, without NATO’s collective defense guarantee, Russia will likely “test Western resolve by attacking any troops in Ukraine.”