‘A million more dead’: The numbers that show Russia is years from victory

None of these factors mean Russia is facing imminent collapse, says Ian Bond, deputy director for the Centre for European Reform in London.

There is no sign that the casualty rate or the economic strains of the war have created any kind of serious domestic political challenge to Putin so far.

“But Russia is strong until it’s not. It looks mighty, and then mental fatigue sets in, and things fall apart quite quickly,” he says.

“Is that going to happen this time? We simply don’t know,” Bond adds. But, he argues, it is a reason for Europe and Ukraine to resist acquiescing to a bad deal – like surrendering Donbas – that would leave them much more vulnerable.