Don’t bank on Britain’s post-Brexit trade deals to save the economy

Analysis by John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London, is more optimistic, predicting a GDP boost of between 0.3 and 0.7 percent over ten years as a result of the agreement. The biggest uplifts, he claims, would come from a youth mobility deal. 

But negotiations on key elements of the deal have only just begun, and Springford admits details are still “a bit sketchy.” As a result, he says, it would be difficult for the OBR to accept Reeves’ ask to score these deals, which would also take a long time to play out.

Even if the government’s estimates are met, he added, the deal will do little to reverse the overall damage caused by Brexit, which the OBR estimates will reduce the U.K.’s long-run productivity by 4 percent.

“The damage caused by Brexit can never be significantly repaired without getting rid of one or all of the government's 'red lines',” he continued, in reference to Labour’s refusal to rejoin the single market or customs union.