Viktor Orbán is gone. What does his fall mean for Europe?

Hungary’s return to democracy will be hard. But the impact of Péter Magyar’s decisive victory could be profound, inside the country and beyond.

The EU must urgently find ways to deal with future Orbáns

This is a moment of history for Hungary and Hungarians. And the outcome is momentous for the rest of Europe too. A 16-year-long illiberal, anti-democratic experiment is at an end, and this is the time for celebration. But with a large majority comes an immense responsibility for the new government in Budapest. Europe too has urgent lessons to learn.

Across EU capitals and in Brussels, Péter Magyar’s victory has brought huge sighs of relief. But the bated breath before the vote, and the fact that many EU leaders were simply hoping the “Orbán problem” would go away after this election, exposes a deeper issue: the EU still lacks a coherent strategy for tackling democratic backsliding within its ranks. That could come back and bite the union again, sooner than expected.

It has not been for lack of trying. But the existing rules of the club do not allow member states to be ejected even if they cease to uphold the rule of law. In 2018, in response to Orbán’s breaches of the rule of law, Brussels launched its article 7 process, and has frozen more than €30bn of EU funds to Budapest. But it never managed to secure the support of all member states needed to turn action into real impact. And many EU countries found it convenient to hide behind some of Orbán’s obstructions; his vocal opposition when it came to migration or other divisive topics. The lesson is that the EU must better equip itself to deal with such situations: not just future mini-Orbáns, but a not-so-mini Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella in France.

Magyar’s election offers Europe an opportunity to emerge stronger and to confront its underlying problems. This is a chance to finally give Ukraine the support it needs, to lock in an ambitious seven-year EU budget, push forward enlargement, and to chip away at the unanimity requirement in foreign policy that has allowed individual member states to hold the continent hostage.

With 2027 elections approaching, the EU needs to act fast. What Europe does in the months ahead will determine whether Magyar’s win marks a genuine turning point, or merely a temporary reprieve.

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