Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran war?

Donald Trump has repeatedly bashed NATO and European allies, threatening to annex Canada and Greenland and deploring their lack of enthusiasm for his war of choice in Iran. Is this latest round of abuse the final straw?

The fiasco of the war of aggression Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are conducting against Iran may not drive Europe completely out of the White House’s orbit, but it will further weaken NATO’s gravitational pull on European allies. Trump did not consult them before his attack, and he has not consulted them on whatever deal with Tehran he is now contemplating. He has done serious damage to Europe’s security and economy –while insulting his allies for not joining in his criminal folly.

If, as seems likely, the war ends with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz more firmly than it did before, then Europe will feel the impacts in its energy and food security – Asia and Africa even more so. The war has also strengthened Russia’s hand, not least because Trump has relaxed some sanctions on its oil and gas exports, making it harder for Europe to increase the pressure on Moscow to end its war against Ukraine. Europeans will not want to sever their ties with NATO: Its integrated command structure and planning processes are valuable and hard to replicate. But Trump’s Middle East misadventure will motivate them to de-risk from an increasingly erratic ally.

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