Research

John Springford, the director of research at the London-based Centre for European Reform, told me that when it came to deciding whether or not to ask Patel for her resignation, May was without any good options. “If she sacks [Patel], she’s got a disgruntled Leaver on the backbench who might make it difficult for her in Brexit negotiations,” he said, noting that recent polling has shown public trust in May’s ability to negotiate a good Brexit deal has fallen to record lows. “If she doesn’t, she looks weak because prime ministers should use their authority to ensure that breaches of the ministerial code are punished.”

Confused and divided, Britain no longer has an agreed-upon national narrative, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “In the 2012 Olympics we had one,” he said. “Global Britain, open Britain, generous Britain.” But now there is a competition between that narrative and the nativist one.Mr Grant, like others who have spent their careers watching British and European politics, predicts rough seas for Britain as it casts off nearly 45 years of intimate trade and legal ties with those annoying Europeans.“Everywhere I go,” he said, “people are asking me, ‘What’s wrong with your country?’ ”

The rescue [which saw almost 600 refugees picked up] coincided with the release of a report by a think-tank that examined the EU’s response to migrants crossing the Mediterranean, suggesting that the union was shifting from internal reforms to making deals with countries in Africa and Asia to try to halt the flow of refugees before they even leave their countries of origin or where they leave from to head to Europe. The report, authored by Luigi Scazzieri and John Springford for the Centre for European Reform, says that “the EU’s initial ad hoc response to the migration crisis [has] slowly being formalised into a strategy to curb migration by using foreign policy to prevent migrants from crossing the Mediterranean.

When asked to comment on Russia and the rise of populist movements in America and the EU, Ian Bond, a former adviser to NATO and director of Foreign Policy at the CER in London, expressed a similar opinion. “I basically agree with Mark. The Kremlin has not created these discontents or these movements. The problems of inequality, the problems of alienation and loss of trust in the political process were there before Vladimir Putin came to power, and they have probably intensified in recent years, certainly since the 2008 economic crisis…This is the weakness of Western society. The extent to which Russia has exploited the different populist movements is variable.”

So existiere in der europäischen Rüstungsindustrie „kein Binnenmarkt, sondern Zersplitterung, Duplizität und Protektionismus,“ stellt Sophia Besch vom Centre for European Reform (CER, London) fest.

Obie strony tych negocjacji muszą wyjść ze swojej strefy komfortu. Unii opłaca się, żeby May pozostała na swoim stanowisku – uważa Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ekspertka Centre for European Reform (CER) w Londynie. Bruksela od początku wyznaczyła korzystną dla siebie sekwencję negocjacji: najpierw warunki rozwodu, potem rozmawiamy o przyszłych relacjach. To jednak jest bardzo trudne do przyjęcia dla Londynu, który stanie przed ogromnym problemem poinformowania swoich obywateli, że wyjście z UE będzie ich kosztowało dziesiątki miliardów euro.