Research
UK in 'cloud cuckoo land': EU insider says Brexit trade talks ten times harder than bill
21 October 2017
The Express
Charles Grant, who has close ties to officials in both the British Government and the EU Commission, warned that the current deadlocked Brexit talks are "ten times easier" than what will come next year. The director of the Centre for European Reform warned that getting to the second phase of Brexit talks is only the beginning of the real battle in leaving the EU. He revealed that EU officials will be "much tougher" than the British Government realises on the future relationship. Mr Grant added that officials in Brussels believe the UK is in "cloud-cuckoo land" over their naivety regarding trade talks.
France 24: Much more work to be done after Brexit summit
21 October 2017
“Officials I talk to, in both the UK government and the European Commission, are fairly optimistic that in December the EU will declare that sufficient progress has been made [to move onto phase two]," said Charles Grant, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform in London, in an interview with FRANCE 24. “But of course that is not certain," he added.
With hardcore Brexiteers urging 'no deal', Labour's duty is clear
20 October 2017
The Guardian
If that sounds relatively smooth, think again. The current phase will be “a picnic in the park compared to the bloody battlefield of what’s ahead”, says Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform. Not least because May and her cabinet have never agreed on what the future UK-EU relationship should look like. The premature triggering of article 50 meant Britain entered negotiations not knowing what it wanted: never a smart move.
Britain confronts tough German line on Brexit
19 October 2017
Financial Times
“The Germans are very focused on the money and do not appear too bothered about the impact on British politics of their holding out,” added Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. “They are convinced a firm line is in the EU’s interests.”
LSE public lecture: Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, no Brexit?
19 October 2017
2016 was unquestionably a year of political and economic shocks with Brexit and the election of President Trump. The UK elections in June 2017 created further difficulties for the Brexit negotiations with the Conservative and Democratic Unionist party agreement which left the Brexit process in uncertain territory.
Deal or no deal, there's no number in the Brexit box that will please the British public
19 October 2017
The Metro
The Centre For European Reform (CER) says the total cost could be between 2.2% (£40bn) and could reach 9% of GDP (£180bn) a year, anti-EU Business For Britain says it would cost £7.4bn a year.
Judy Asks: Does May need Merkel for a Brexit deal?
18 October 2017
Carnegie Europe
No, Theresa May needs to impose some discipline and unity on her own troops in order to achieve a workable deal.
Delivering a successful industrial strategy through trade policy and export promotion
17 October 2017
Prospect
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, sounded a note of caution on the presumption that by leaving the EU Customs Union and regaining control of its trade policy, the UK would derive major economic benefits. Grant went on to note that, whilst this was a likely scenario, it was not inevitable and the Treasury had serious concerns that any new trade deals would not be able to outweigh the effect of a less close economic relationship with the EU.
The West cannot afford to give up on Turkey
17 October 2017
CNN
European leaders are set to discuss the increasingly difficult issue of Turkey at a summit this week in Brussels amid the deepest freeze in bilateral relations in years.
What to do with a problem like Turkey
17 October 2017
Financial Times
Luigi Scazzieri, at the Centre for European Reform, thinks it's time for some creative thinking on a new EU-Turkey relationship: "The EU should keep the accession process alive to avoid accelerating the negative spiral in bilateral relations. At the same time it should attempt to formulate a new framework for a partnership with Turkey. If, as is possible, the EU moves towards a membership made up of several tiers, there would be space for countries to be associated with certain elements of the Union but not others – in other words some form of associate membership. Turkey could aspire to join an outer ring, perhaps with deep access to the single market but no freedom of movement."
For Theresa May, the Brexit news only gets worse
17 October 2017
The New York Times
“Britain is not seen as a credible negotiating partner,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based research institute. “Continental Europeans read Britain’s newspapers and watch its TV news, and it seems very confused. They don’t know who is in charge, and who speaks for the government.”
BBC News at six: Theresa May visits Brussels
16 October 2017
John Springford speaks to BBC News about the Brexit negotiations (from 10.30 mins).
The Observer view on EU negotiations
15 October 2017
The Observer
The immediate imposition, for example, of EU tariffs on British exports, ranging from 4% to 40%, would be massively disruptive. Among the hardest hit would be the car industry, the UK’s fastest-growing exporter of manufactured goods, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform.
Los premier Theresy May wisi na włosku
13 October 2017
Rzeczpospolita
Po tragicznych dla May przedterminowych wyborach, z których wyszła z mniejszościowym rządem, parlament w coraz większym stopniu korzysta ze swoich uprawnień do kontroli procesu rokowań z Unią – przyznaje „Rz" Agata Gostyńska z londyńskiego Center for European Reform (CER). – Jednak sondaże pokazują, że przedterminowe wybory mogą doprowadzić do zwycięstwa laburzystów, a nowym premierem może zostać Jeremy Corbyn. Każdy deputowany torysów dwa razy się zastanowi zanim zdecyduje się na takie rozwiązanie – dodaje.
Spain considers change to constitution as way out of crisis
13 October 2017
Financial Times
“As much as Spaniards cherish their hard-fought for constitution, it’s time to change it,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. Like other specialists, she thinks the fundamental need is to update the constitution so that it gives more formal recognition to Spain’s rich regional diversity.
Piqd: Armes Deutschland – 15 Jahre Hartz IV
13 October 2017
Christian Odendahl ist Chefökonom des Londoner Centre for European Reform (CER) und als solcher schreibt und denkt er zu europäischen Wirtschaftsfragen: Eurokrise, Banken, Wachstum, Handel, politische Ökonomie. In seinem Policy Brief “The Hartz Myth: A closer look at Germany’s labour market reforms” hat er untersucht, was die ökonomischen Umstände der Reformen waren.
Brexit talks are set to miss their first big deadline
12 October 2017
CNBC
"I fear all this is too little for Michel Barnier (the European negotiator) to ask the EU leaders to give him a green light to open up negotiations about the future," Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told CNBC via email. "He is a serious statesman — he will not make any recommendations concerning sufficient progress until he is perfectly certain that he has found common ground with the UK," she added.
CER podcast: Peacekeepers for Ukraine?
11 October 2017
Sophia Besch talks to Luigi Scazzieri about Russian President Putin’s proposal to send a UN peacekeeping force to eastern Ukraine.
The EU has 36 free trade deals with non-EU countries - will they roll over to Britain after Brexit?
10 October 2017
Prospect
For the past 44 years, the UK has relied upon the European Union, formerly the European Economic Community, to negotiate trade deals.
Brexit nemeses mapped: Member-states hold all the cards and this is who really hates UK
10 October 2017
The Express
Charles Grant, director for think-tank the Centre for European Reform, tweeted: “I understand Michel Barnier wanted to close chapter on citizens rights - UK had ceded on 95% but member-states wouldn’t let him.”