Research
No Brexit favours under new Merkel government, Britain warned
18 September 2017
The Telegraph
“On the margins, the FDP as a junior coalition partner could push Merkel in a slightly more pragmatic direction, but really it is only on the margins,” concluded Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Whitehall must publish its Brexit impact assessments
15 September 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform, first revealed the existence of this paper back in June. It is said to show that the value of new FTAs would be significantly less than the economic cost of leaving the customs union.
LSE public lecture: A changing Germany in a changing Europe? The German elections and implications for Europe
14 September 2017
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform joined the LSE to disuss the forthcoming elections in Germany have important implications for Germany, for Europe and international politics.
What happens if Brexit negotiations don't work?
12 September 2017
The Atlantic
As noted by John Springford and Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, a cliff edge scenario - in which the UK would leave the EU (including its single market and customs union) without a trade deal or transition period - would make the 40 percent of overall UK exports that go to the EU subject to automatic tariffs and customs barriers.
Europas neue Reservearmee
12 September 2017
Der Tagesspiegel
Die unteren 40 Prozent der Lohnbezieher in Deutschland erzielten 2016 nach Abzug der Inflation weniger Einkommen als 20 Jahre zuvor, musste die Bundesregierung im Armuts-/Reichtumsbericht einräumen. Das deutsche Wunder sei „nur ein Mythos“ urteilte darum die „Financial Times“. Zu dem gleichen Schluss kam auch Christian Odendahl, Chef-Ökonom des wirtschaftsnahen Centre for European Reform, der für die englischsprachige Welt eine fundierte Klarstellung verfasste.
Germany after the Hartz reforms
11 September 2017
Foreign Affairs
The odds were always stacked against Martin Schulz, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) challenger to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the forthcoming election.
Major misunderstanding' Why UK can't rely on Germany's trade fears for good Brexit deal
08 September 2017
The Express
Christian Odendahl dismissed claims Germany will strive for a good Brexit deal for Britain, because Angela Merkel has her sights set on greater unity in Brussels. Although Germany will “not want to punish” Britain, it will not stand for “cherry-picking”, the Berlin representative at the Centre for European Reform warned.
Why Berlin won't come to UK's rescue on Brexit
08 September 2017
Politico
With the German election around the corner, the United Kingdom appears to be holding out hope that a fourth term for Chancellor Angela Merkel and a potentially more pro-business coalition partner could come to its rescue in divorce talks in Brussels.
Intern britisk uenighed kaster mudder i Brexit-forhandlinger
07 September 2017
Kristeligt Dagblad
Udenrigspolitisk direktør Ian Bond fra tænketanken Centre for European Reform hæfter sig tilsvarende ved, at Theresa May ikke som en Margaret Thatcher kan svinge med håndtasken og presse sin vilje igennem i Bruxelles. ”Det påvirker dem betydeligt. En stærkere premierminister kunne sige til resten af Europa, at ’jeg har mandatet til at gøre, hvad jeg vil. Får jeg ikke min vilje, så går jeg’. Hun ville også kunne sige til tilhængerne af en hård Brexit (hvor briterne kapper alle bånd til EU, red.), at det vil være økonomisk katastrofalt, og at briterne derfor vil være nødt til at gå på kompromis med en økonomisk aftale. Men hun har intet,” siger Ian Bond.
What to make of the Home Office leak?
06 September 2017
The Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, disagrees. “This document is a demand for derogation from free movement law,” he says. “It demands that EU citizens register, while UK citizens do not have to do so, violating non-discrimination rules.” He adds: “EU leaders were clear in the negotiating mandate that they gave to the commission that, should a prolongation of the acquis be required, then all rules and institutions and the entirety of single market and EU law would have to apply. The EU has no interest in negotiating a bespoke transition.”
Judy Asks: Is it time for hard power in North Korea?
06 September 2017
Carnegie Europe
If there ever was a chance of a successful military response to North Korea’s nuclear program, it is now gone.
When it comes to progress, what counts as 'sufficient'?
05 September 2017
Politico
“The key issue for ‘sufficient progress’ will be money,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “The EU and the U.K. will have to agree on a methodology for calculating the amount that the UK must pay.” Such a methodology would have to be “detailed enough to reassure the EU … but vague enough so that journalists cannot easily work out a direct figure,” Grant added. EU estimates of this figure range from €65 billion net to €100 billion.
La grande coalizione che serve all’Europa
05 September 2017
Il sole 24 Ore
Christian Odendahl, capo economista del Centre for European Reform, in un’analisi pubblicata dopo il dibattito , butta lì l’ipotesi intrigante di un Governo democristiano di minoranza, con l’appoggio “variabile” di Spd, Fdp e Verdi. Ma questo sembra contraddire la predilezione dell’elettorato tedesco per la stabilità.
Die SPD hätte mehr Sozialdemokratie wagen müssen
04 September 2017
Makronom
Spätestens nach dem TV-Duell dürfte klar sein, dass die Sozialdemokraten die Bundestagswahl verlieren werden.
France Culture: Flexisécurité, Loi Hartz, Jobs Act : l’Europe à la recherche d’un modèle
04 September 2017
Christian Odendahl speaks to radio France Culture about the German Hartz reforms (in French, from 40.00 mins).
How May can put Brexit back on track
04 September 2017
Bloomberg
And that, as John Springford of the Centre for European Reform has argued, might be the worst possible outcome for hardliners. It would lead voters to conclude that Brexit was a terrible mistake after all -- an error that they might then decide to put right.
Čas tlačí. Do summitu EU se vyjednavači k brexitu sejdou jen dvakrát
03 September 2017
Tyden.cz
Podle Agaty Gostyńské-Jakubowské z londýnského Centra pro evropskou reformu (CER) jsou pozice stran v klíčových otázkách nadále "velmi daleko" od sebe. "Zdá se mi, že bude velmi složité pro Brity i Barnierův tým se do října dohodnout a otevřít tak cestu k další fázi rozhovorů," uvedla analytička střediska.
The EU is changing – and the UK attitude to Brexit could change too
03 September 2017
The New Statesman
The people running the EU have always wanted it to be uniform.
BBC Radio 4 Today: Brexit negotiations
01 September 2017
Charles Grant speaks to John Humphreys about the Brexit negotiations (from 1h 34m).
No Brexit respite for UK as German parties align behind the EU
01 September 2017
Bloomberg
“Most German voters still have a very hard time understanding why British voters decided the leave the EU,” Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, and research fellow Sophia Besch wrote in a note. “They fail to see how retreating from a club of like-minded democratic countries gives Britain more control.”