Press

C'est bien là le problème. La France redoute que Theresa May ne tarde trop, prolongeant une période « d'incertitude » qui est « un risque pour la stabilité de l'économie européenne » selon François ­Hollande. « Theresa May pourrait avoir intérêt à attendre que l'élection présidentielle française soit passée », avance Simon ­Tilford, du think tank Centre for European Reform. La pression des eurosceptiques, FN en tête, forcerait l'Elysée à se montrer ferme en période électorale, estime cet expert.

"The British position has long been that government expenditure must be reserved for immigrants who are in work, or have long-established ties to the member state in which they live," wrote John Springford of the CER. "Many British emigrants to Spain fail that test. [...] To avoid the charge of hypocrisy, Britain could agree to pay Spain to cover healthcare costs, accept that migrants should pay for it themselves, or have Britons risk their health by travelling home to be treated by the NHS."

“A Bruselas le gustaba decir que España era el alumno modélico: pero si crece es justamente porque resistió con sensatez las presiones para aprobar una nueva ronda de austeridad. Es preocupante ese dogmatismo de Bruselas con las sanciones”.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, who talks regularly to senior officials in all other EU governments, says those who believe the UK can have its cake and eat it from Brexit – access to the single market and limits on free movement – are deluding themselves.

"Exporters need to continue to invest to remain competitive. If Brexit leads to an investment freeze, the fall in the pound might not be enough to boost exports," Christian Odendahl and John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, a research institute in London, wrote.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, warns the EU institutions and other member states against trying to punish Britain for the referendum outcome and alienating the UK before it has left the EU. “Some MEPs may feel uncomfortable that a Brit chairs the single market committee in the European parliament [Conservative Vicky Ford] and some member states may find it annoying that a Brit runs DG Grow,” a reference to Lowri Evans, the most senior civil servant at the commission’s business department.

“Britain will probably do a Norway-lite, where it will have to cede some market access in return for the right to place some controls on free movement,” said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “But once the costs become apparent, there will be more of a debate in the UK about whether it’s enough, and the politics will get really toxic.”

Most economists still expect Britain’s economy to slow as a result of Brexit, maybe even slipping into recession next year. "Exporters need to continue to invest to remain competitive. If Brexit leads to an investment freeze, the fall in the pound might not be enough to boost exports," Christian Odendahl and John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, a research institute in London, wrote this week.