Research

»Europæerne er opmærksomme på det britiske bidrag til sikkerheden i Europa, så det vil spille en rolle i forhandlingerne. Det vil kunne hjælpe briterne, men det vil også kunne skade briterne. De vil kunne miste en hel del goodwill, hvis de spiller deres kort forkert,« siger Sophia Besch, ekspert i NATO og europæisk sikkerhed ved tænketanken Center for European Reform i London.

In a new report for the CER, Alex Barker of the Financial Times, puts the figure at anything between €24.5bn ($26.1bn) and €72.8bn. The bill comprises three main elements. Mr Barker reckons Britain’s share could amount to €17.4bn. The government will struggle to explain why voters should be on the hook for payments made after Brexit. But the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up.

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that rather than choosing a “hard” – the Prime Minister prefers “clean” – Brexit, May should have tilted more towards those who voted Remain. She should have pursued what he calls “an economically optimal deal, something like Norway but a bit different, where we would more or less have been in the single market with a little bit of restriction on free movement”.

Alex Barker, the Brussels Editor of the Financial Times, has done us all a favour. In a new paper for the Centre for European Reform he has plunged into the unpleasant and confusing world of the EU budget to try and figure out answers to these important questions.The biggest chunk of the bill is for spending commitments over the course of the EU's 2014-2020 multi annual budget framework. A key issue here is a rather antique French state accounting concept known as RAL - Reste a Liquider - roughly translated as "yet to be paid". 

If Brexit talks collapse the most likely reason will be money. Back in November, the FT first reported that Britain would be served an exit bill of up to €60bn. Now in a paper for the Centre for European Reform, I’ve tried to explain the detailed calculations, the law behind it, and the volatile budget politics that may soon engulf Westminster and Brussels. You can see the full version here.

A fine summary of the European Parliament’s role in the Brexit process from the Centre for European Reform. Although MEPs officially have no say over the Article 50 terms themselves, they can still block the deal outright, leaving a blunt but still lethal Sword of Damocles hanging over proceedings.

The French, who are being tough on a British withdrawal and are deeply disconcerted by Mr Trump, see him as a bigger threat to European cohesion, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “They see the three great world powers — Russia, China and now the US — wanting to destroy the EU,” he said. One impact of Mr Trump that Mr Tusk is clearly hoping for, Mr Grant said, is “to reinforce a feeling of solidarity among mainstream European politicians.”