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John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform, explained that the economic slowdown and job losses have been less dramatic than predicted, as British consumers have kept spending on the back of their savings. In addition, he noted that Britain’s labour market has proven to be “extremely flexible”, pointing to an unemployment rate that remained under 8% during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

CER director of research John Springford said: “Something similar to the Swiss deal, but without free movement, would be the very best that Britain can hope for. “The EU might not be prepared to offer the UK such a deal, since the Swiss have accepted free movement as the price of single market participation in goods, and the EU want the Swiss to download EU law more rapidly.

"A Macron victory would break the political mould of the Fifth Republic. Since 1958 France has been ruled by presidents who hail from the mainstream parties of left or right," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, believes the election may have a limited impact on the course of the negotiations. “I think it will strengthen her hand domestically. She says it’s to strengthen her hand with the EU. It doesn’t make any difference to the EU, because the EU has the whip hand. The EU is in a strong position, and Britain is in a weak position, and the fact that she has a strong majority behind her doesn’t really change the fundamentals of the power relationship between the EU and the UK,” he says.

Still, the element of fear can’t be underestimated in the voters’ decision, said Simon Tilford, deputy-director at the London-based Centre for European Reform. “Of all the candidates, Le Pen is the one most likely to benefit,” he said. “The fear is this will heighten concern about Islamic terrorism and enable Le Pen to tap into fears over migration and refugees.”

“It would show that liberal, pro-EU centrists may yet have a future in European politics,” says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. “Macron wants reforms to pep up France’s economy and strengthen its position in Europe.” A Macron win could also suggest that, after Britain’s decision to leave and the shock election of Donald Trump in the US, “the demise of liberalism, internationalism and the EU ... may not be inevitable,” Grant added.