Press
Q&A: Will Greece exit the euro?
21 June 2011
CNN
"It would be a mistake to say they can never leave," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. Tilford said an orderly transition could be planned with temporary backing from the rest of the eurozone to ensure that there is no panicked withdrawal of Greek investments. "If you argue that it can never happen you must be arguing that Greece must default on its debts in the eurozone and remain in the currency, that's possible and it might be the most likely outcome. But I think it would be mistake to say they can never leave.
Greek government wins vote of confidence
21 June 2011
The Washington Post
Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a think tank in London, predicted a tough fight for Papandreou in the coming week — and no guarantee that Greece is close to renewed growth. "No government in Europe would be able to push through austerity of this level without light at the end of the tunnel. And there is no light the economy is pretty much in free fall."
France seeks suitable successor for Lagarde
21 June 2011
The Wall Street Journal
Ms Lagarde has also proven her ability to engage with Germany on eurozone reform. In March 2010 she made a bold call on Germany to boost its domestic demand, much to the relief of other smaller countries in the eurozone, said Simon Tilford, chief economist at EU think tank Centre for European Reform. While she may have pulled her punches more recently as France privileges its relationship with Germany, she is better placed than any other to take a more assertive line in Europe, he said.
A smaller eurozone would be stronger
20 June 2011
The Times
A single European currency has the merit of encouraging trade and investment across frontiers, and thus growth. But countries with inflexible, badly-run economies should never have been allowed to join the euro. The sooner the eurozone shrinks, the sooner it will stabilise.
A country such as Greece with large budget and...
A country such as Greece with large budget and...
Compétitivité ou productivité pour relancer la croissance européenne?
20 June 2011
Les Echos
Une mauvaise compréhension de ce que sont les moteurs de la croissance économique menace la reprise en Europe. Ses dirigeants sont obsédés par la compétitivité et paraissent croire sincèrement que prospérité rime avec excédent commercial.
Europeans wince at austerity, and markets fear their wrath
16 June 2011
New York Times
"It's hard enough to get the electorate to support austerity at the best of times," said Simon Tilford, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform in London. "They promised endless austerity with no prospects of a return to growth, and there will be mounting opposition to this. The EU and IMF are insisting on a course of action that has already failed," Mr Tilford said. "That is not going work but is going to impose huge economic and social costs."
Europe’s competitiveness trap
16 June 2011
Project Syndicate
A flawed understanding of what drives economic growth has emerged as the gravest threat to recovery in Europe. European policymakers are obsessed with national “competitiveness,” and genuinely appear to think that prosperity is synonymous with trade surpluses.
Welche Länder sperren sich gegen das Hilfspaket?
15 June 2011
Der Tagesspiegel
In den Niederlanden falle die Frage, wie man die Eurozone künftig zusammenhalten könne, "einem zunehmenden Populismus zum Opfer", urteilt Simon Tilford vom Londoner Think Tank Centre for European Reform. ... "Die Niederlande können sich jetzt nicht einfach von dieser Krise lossagen", sagt Tilford.
European defence needs a joint approach
14 June 2011
Flightglobal
As Tomas Valasek, director of foreign policy and defence at London-based think-tank the Centre for European Reform, puts it in a recent paper, Surviving Austerity: The case for a new approach to EU military collaboration, a "wave of budgetary austerity" is eroding European nations' defences, and their armed forces "will lose important skills and capabilities unless they can find ways to save money through collaboration".
Trichet's 'Cold War' with Germany risks damage that may force compromise
13 June 2011
Bloomberg
"The balance of forces in the eurozone is a little like it was in the Cold War: both sides are brandishing deterrents that would be too horrendous to use," said Philip Whyte, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "It's all going to turn on whether you can fiddle with debt maturities without calling it a credit event."
Beginning of the end for NATO?
13 June 2011
New York Times
"The agreement called into question the sustainability and relevance of the EU's security and defence policy," said Clara Marina O'Donnell, defence expert at the Centre for European Reform in London.
Always waiting for the US cavalry
10 June 2011
The Economist
A recent paper by the Centre for European Reform, and think-tank in London, makes some sensible recommendations [Surviving Austerity: The case for a new approach to EU military collaboration by Tomas Valasek].
Erdogan seen winning after turning IMF-hooked Turkey into Mideast's model
10 June 2011
Bloomberg
"It still slightly worries me that Erdogan portrays himself as the natural long-term leader of Turkey," Katinka Barysch, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, said in an interview. "A country too centralised, too focussed on one personality usually leads to very bad decision-making because if one leader is in power for too long he’s usually surrounded by yes-sayers."
President Obama embraces troubled German ally
07 June 2011
NPR
"Governments need to be able to point to the light at the end of the tunnel," says Simon Tilford, chief economist with the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank that supports European integration. Tilford says Greece and the other ailing economies are denied, by their use of the euro, the normal tools countries might use to address deep deficits, such as devaluing currency by printing money.
Turkey's choice
02 June 2011
International Herald Tribune
Turkey's election in 2007 was preceded by threats of a military coup. The 2002 one was overshadowed by an economic meltdown.
Erdogan's last hurrah (possibly)
02 June 2011
The Economist
Katinka Barysch of the London-based Centre for European Reform points out that some 50-60 journalists are now in jail, most of them accused of plotting to overthrow the government; around 10,000 lawsuits are pending against writers and broadcasters; and Turkey has dropped to 138th place in the press-freedom ranking of Reporters Without Borders, a lobby group, behind Iraq and only just ahead of Russia.
Why the EU needs a migration organisation
01 June 2011
European Voice
A European Migration Organisation would help the EU develop clearer responses to migration. EU leaders will discuss reform of the Schengen area at their summit next week (23-24 June).
Five ways to save Europe
29 May 2011
Irish Independent
Simon Tilford, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, believes that Europe will eventually have to write off about half of the debt of countries such as Greece and Ireland. "Far from improving access to the financial markets, the support packages for Greece and Ireland have left these countries facing record borrowing costs," said Tilford. "The markets do not believe that the struggling euro countries are going to grow rapidly enough to service their debts.
President Barack Obama's fence-mending with Poland
27 May 2011
BBC News
As Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, told me, "Poland has traditionally been a close ally of the US on security matters, but that alliance has become strained in recent years". "Poles were upset by President Obama's abrupt cancellation of the Bush administration's plans for missile defence, which would have stationed interceptors in Poland, and they are still arguing with the Obama administration about whether the Patriot missiles that Poland wants should be based there permanently or not," he added.
Tens of thousands protest against the government
25 May 2011
Prague Post
"There is a perception that Europe's way of life is under threat", said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. "In Spain, they face years of painful adjustment with no guarantee there will be a return to economic growth", he said.