Press

Turkey needs suppliers to fuel energy hub role

11 June 2010
Financial Times
Katinka Barysch at the Centre for European Reform notes that US exploitation of shale gas has changed the global market. Europe, unlikely to match the US shale gas boom, is now the only big buyer of liquefied natural gas. "LNG imports mean more competition in a market hitherto dominated by 30-year contracts with fixed volumes and prices linked to the international oil price… Gazprom and other suppliers will have to make a bigger effort to be cheap and reliable," she writes.

Spain seeks EU backing on plan to lift Israeli blockade of Gaza

Clara Marina O'Donnell
10 June 2010
The Guardian
"We are seeing a sense of disarray with several voices speaking at the same time," said Clara O'Donnell of the Centre for European Reform. "But even if the EU is keen to help, the Israelis do not consider it reliable enough. There is not much Europe can do until the Americans move."

Greek crisis hangs over EU economic summit

Philip Whyte
08 June 2010
Financial Times
"Naming and shaming" countries that underperform remains a possibility, however. "The broad thrust of the agenda remains as valid today as it was back then [in 2000]," said Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform. "A decade on, many EU countries still suffer from low employment and low productivity. So residual barriers to intra-European trade need to be dismantled and more must be done to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation."

Europe needs more than fiscal prudence

Philip Whyte
08 June 2010
Financial Times
As Philip Whyte observes in a piece for the CER (Eurozone governance: Why the Commission is right), Germany's position is "one-eyed". When the global financial crisis erupted in 2007-2008, Spain was running a budget surplus, not a deficit, and its present difficulties have very little to do with government irresponsibility. They have been caused by a housing market bubble, an over-extended banking sector, very high levels of private sector debt and a rigid labour market that has exacerbated Spain's long-term loss of business competitiveness.

Germany signals end of love affair with Europe

02 June 2010
The Guardian
"In the history of the European Union," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, "I've never seen Germany so isolated before."

The eurozone expands despite doubts

Simon Tilford
31 May 2010
Newsweek
Some candidates "would be better members than many of the existing ones," says Simon Tilford of the CER. "But the spectre of Greece means there is very little stomach for taking on new members."

Hurdles remain for non-Russian gas pipeline

30 May 2010
The Daily Telegraph
Katinka Barysch, of the CER, believes the pipeline is still crucial. In a discussion paper published this month, she points out "Energy forecasters say that the global gas glut is temporary.Between 2015 and 2020 global markets will tighten. All of Nabucco's problems – lack of demand, finance and supplies – have a plausible solution. Even if it is further delayed and not ready for gas shipments in 2014, it still makes sense to build it, both commercially and politically."

Humbled by crisis, Russia and the EU eye summit reset

Katinka Barysch
29 May 2010
CNBC
But a better atmosphere will not necessarily translate into an ambitious summit agreement, said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER. "The relationship looks better, feels better, smells better," said Barysch. "Whether that can be translated into concrete achievements remains to be seen."

La dolce vita sours in Europe

Philip Whyte
29 May 2010
Montreal Gazette
Philip Whyte, an economic analyst with the CER, said the spending cuts and tax increases could push parts of Europe into a prolonged slump. He also said the kind of unrest this month in Greece, when protesters firebombed police and set fire to a bank that left three dead, could spread. "Greece is the thin edge of the wedge, and not just in southern Europe.

EU struggles to convince markets in euro crisis

Simon Tilford
28 May 2010
Reuters
"This is the worst possible message they [Germany] could be sending the markets because it suggests they are still not acknowledging what the underlying problem here is," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER. "Far from reassuring the market and stabilizing market sentiment, this will further undermine confidence in the ability of eurozone governments and policymakers to get on top of the crisis. It will aggravate the situation further."

Euro exit is no soft option

26 May 2010
Daily Mail
Experts, including Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, do not exclude the possibility of Greece exiting down the road. But the rest are likely to 'muddle through,' he argues. "There is a lot of hot air about the eurozone breaking up," says Grant. "'But don't underestimate the political will there is to keep it together."

Can the European Union survive the debt crisis?

Simon Tilford
26 May 2010
The Christian Science Monitor
"Essentially, you can't have a single currency without a single economy," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "For it to work, there needs to be much greater political and economic integration."

Merkel faces loss of political clout

Simon Tilford
24 May 2010
The Wall Street Journal
"Other euro members won't be able to put their public finances on a sustainable footing if their economies cannot return to economic growth," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "It's all very well to talk about the need for greater fiscal discipline - that's only one element of the problem, which is why Germany's strategy lacks any real credibility with the markets or with its European partners.

The European disunion - will the euro survive?

Simon Tilford
23 May 2010
The Telegraph
Part of the reason why southern European nations like Spain and Greece are currently in so much debt is that the northern European nations were prepared to lend to them the cash in the first place, explains Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. The construction boom in Spain, for example, wasn't financed out of nowhere: it was fuelled by enormous sums of cheap cash borrowed at very low rates.

Germany tries to save the euro - all by itself

Simon Tilford
21 May 2010
Time
"The Germans are no closer to understanding that the markets are not the problem," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER. "The markets are right to be uncertain about the sustainability of the euro zone in its current form."

EU faces battle over closer economic union

Simon Tilford
21 May 2010
Reuters
"The problem is that when countries signed up to the single currency they were not made aware that it would require such integration. Political elites need to start explaining why it does," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London.

British PM to visit Paris and Berlin

20 May 2010
The Hindu
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform (CER), said that - now in government - the Conservative leader was likely to come across as being "much less eurosceptic than people feared." The timing of the visits was especially interesting. "The euro crisis is prising apart Franco-German relations. It is a great opportunity for Britain to lead in Europe, if it has the ideas and a constructive attitude," Mr Grant told the BBC on Thursday.

Against a great wall

Katinka Barysch
19 May 2010
Hindustan Times
"EU diplomats exude optimism when asked about China," wrote Katinka Barysch of the Centre of European Reform. "Chinese leaders, unlike most Russians and Americans, like and respect the European Union." … "Wishful thinking," was how European analyst Charles Grant termed Europe's China fixation. … Grant says "We have suffered more from yuan manipulation than the US."… the EU "should abandon the fiction of a 'strategic partnership' which cannot be meaningful when the values of the two sides are so different."

Germany's eurozone bind

Simon Tilford
19 May 2010
Reuters
As Simon Tilford, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform think tank points out, if every economy in the eurozone looked like Germany they would all be expected to run trade surpluses, all have minimal labour cost inflation and all have low domestic consumption. "It's a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy," he said. "If everyone is called upon to cut costs and boost export income, then there's massive depreciation pressure and a eurozone wide slump. It would mean big trouble.

Euroland lesson for a stand alone nation state

Simon Tilford
19 May 2010
The Australian
Centre for European Reform chief economist Simon Tilford says: "Unfortunately, the eurozone fulfils few, if any, of the criteria for a successful currency union. The participating economies can hardly be described as fully integrated."