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Civil servants may be secretly distorting evidence to “influence” the Government to stay in the EU’s customs union, a Brexit minister has suggested. Steve Baker floated the extraordinary conspiracy claim on the floor of the House of Commons, telling MPs he did not necessarily believe it – but did not rule it out.“I think it would be quite extraordinary if it turned out that such a thing had happened,” the hard Brexit supporter said.Meanwhile, the think-tank head who spoke with Mr Baker - Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform – flatly denied he had made any allegation about a civil service conspiracy. 

Brexit Minister Steve Baker told MPs that he had been told the 'extraordinary' claim by Charles Grant from the respected Centre for European Reform think-tank. The revelation comes maid fears that Theresa May is 'going soft on Brexit' and getting ready to change her position and keep the UK in the EU customs union. 

In an extraordinary exchange in the Commons on Thursday, Rees-Mogg asked Baker to confirm whether he had been told Treasury staff had deliberately skewed analyses to show all scenerios apart from remaining in the Customs Union would be bad for the UK economy. “Will he confirm that he heard from Charles Grant, from the Centre For European Reform, that officials in the Treasury had deliberately developed a model to show that all options other than staying in the Customs Union were bad, and that officials intended to use this to influence policy?” the hardline Brexiteer asked.

“Hopes that Italy could be the third engine of a Franco-German partnership to renew the EU are probably mistaken,” writes Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. “No matter what happens on March 4th, tensions between the new government and the EU are assured.”

According to the influential Centre for European Reform think-tank it is France, Germany and the EU Commission that are opposed to a good deal. ...CER Director Charles Grant said UK officials have noted that “several member-states are uncomfortable with the hard line taken by France, Germany and the Commission”. Meanwhile, bureaucrats in Berlin and Paris fear that they are becoming increasingly isolated due to their tough approach, meaning it will be “harder for France and Germany to get their way” in the second phase.

This Centre for European Reform briefing explains this issue in more detail. Here is an excerpt from the report, written by Sam Lowe."As well as binding the UK to the EU’s single market and customs union, the draft proposal seeks to ensure that the UK continues to apply the bloc’s external tariff rates and performs the same border checks with non-EU countries. This could easily result in a scenario in which UK exporters are no longer able to take advantage of the EU’s existing free trade agreements, but exporters located in countries with EU FTAs [free trade agreements] would continue to benefit from preferential access to the UK market on the same terms as now.

Forget “managed divergence”, the UK is better off striking a deal on goods after Brexit, write John Springford and Sam Lowe in their recent article 'Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house',  for the CER.

According to Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, one of the goals of EU negotiators is to push May to explain the reality of Brexit to voters. “The second phase of the withdrawal negotiations, for the EU, is about forcing the UK to acknowledge the inherent trade-offs that come with Brexit,” says Lowe. “There is a hope that when and if they do come clean, then there will be a moment where the country goes, ‘Ah. Do we actually want to do this?’ ”