CER end of year podcast: Review of 2021

22 December 2021
As 2021 draws to a close, the CER researchers reflect on the events of the past year.

Just a year of Brexit has thumped UK's economy and businesses

22 December 2021
As of October, UK goods trade with the EU was 15.7% lower than it would have been had Britain stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union, according to modeling by the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank. That tallies with a UK government analysis of 2018, which predicted a 10% decline in trade.

Brexit: The economic impact a year on

21 December 2021
BBC News
Economic modellers at the Centre for European Reform ... compare the UK as it is with a doppelgänger UK, following the attributes of EU economies that were most similar before Brexit and before Covid.
Isolating the Brexit effect suggests a drop of 11 to 16% in the amount of UK trade, which in October came to 15.7% on imports and exports, worth £12.6bn.

Frosty resignation Leaves Boris Johnson with Brexit meltdown

20 December 2021
The Washington Post
To try to isolate Brexit effects, John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, created a nifty algorithm that used pre-pandemic data on GDP, goods trade, population, industrial production and other factors to create a “doppelganger” UK that closely tracked the real UK. His model finds that goods trade was between 11% and 16% lower in October as a result of the UK leaving the single market in January 2021 — a cost of 12.6 billion pounds ($16.7 billion).

Lord Frost's resignation exposes threat Boris Johnson faces from Tory right

19 December 2021
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, tweeted: “When I was in Brussels two weeks ago, meeting EU & govt officials, I was told that [Frost] was personally responsible for the dire state of EU-UK relations.”

Intervjuu⟩ Energeetikaekspert: uut hinnahüpet võime näha juba järgmisel talvel

17 December 2021
Postimees [Estonia]
Venemaa teeb Euroopa energeetikareformide pärast kära, sest näeb, et see on nende gaasist sõltumise lõpu algus, ütleb Elisabetta Cornago mõttekojast Centre for European Reform.

Leaders expected to shy away from discussion of specific sanctions

Christian Odendahl
16 December 2021
Financial Times
“Policy-makers should continue to be relaxed about inflation and not take the eye off the recovery ball,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “The real risks from high energy prices are weakness in consumption and a potentially weaker economy in 2022 and 2023, not inflation.” 

Firms brace for extra Brexit red tape amid supply lines squeeze

16 December 2021
In October, UK trade in goods was 12.6 billion pounds ($16.7 billion) less than it would have been had Britain stayed in the EU, according to research by the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.

No sign UK Government cares one whit on Brexit woe

15 December 2021
The Herald Scotland
The Centre for European Reform think-tank estimated on Monday that, in October, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the country had stayed in the European single market and customs union.

Relations review

14 December 2021
Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said the UK will keep a watchful eye on whether France tries to block reforms to NATO that London considers a priority, such as standing up to China in the Indo-Pacific, boosting cyber security capabilities and investing more on defense R&D.

Why EU-UK data flows have a dim future

13 December 2021
After Brexit, the EU and the UK reached an uneasy truce to maintain the free flow of personal data between them.

Putin kalkulerer med Vestens svaghed

10 December 2021
Et sådant skridt vil formentlig føre til et totalt stop for russisk olie- og gaseksport til Europa. Vil vi kunne leve med det i en situation med mangelfulde leverancer og stærkt stigende energipriser? »Det er ikke et ideelt tidspunkt her til vinter. Olie kan vi købe andre steder på verdensmarkedet. Men gas er et problem, fordi størsteparten transporteres i rørledninger. Der er muligheder, blandt andet LPG (flydende gas, der transporteres i containere, red.), men kan den erstatte al den gas, der kommer fra Rusland? Formentlig ikke,« svarer Ian Bond.

ITV News: Analysis shows Brexit caused £12 billion of lost trade in October

10 December 2021
The pandemic delivered a huge shock to UK and global trade but the deputy director of the CER, John Springford, told ITV News he’s “pretty confident” that Brexit is to blame for the slump.

The New Statesman: World review podcast - Farewell Merkel, hello Scholz

Christian Odendahl
08 December 2021
"Germany understands that it's time for a 'period of modernisation'" said Christian Odendahl of the CER, on the modernising ambitions of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor. 

Germany’s new government has big plans. It might be a shock after Merkel.

Christian Odendahl
08 December 2021
“After 16 years of very little progress, I think Germany is in for a bit of a modernization shock,” said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist for the Centre for European Reform.

Franco-British relations shouldn’t be a circus

06 December 2021
Relations between the UK and France are a mess. Boris Johnson has told Emmanuel Macron in cod French to “Prenez un grip”.

Deutsche Welle: Energy crisis: Will a green transition throw the global economy into recession?

06 December 2021
“What the [energy price spike] exposes is not that we have tried to decarbonise energy generation faster than what would be wise – quite the opposite: if we had a larger share of renewables in the energy mix, we would be less reliant on fossil fuels [such as natural gas]...

How migration became a weapon in a ‘hybrid war’

05 December 2021
Financial Times
“This cannot happen again. This is on the mind of everybody,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez of the Centre for European Reform in Brussels.

Bruselas pide un presupuesto permanente para la zona euro cuando expire el fondo de recuperación

04 December 2021
El Pais
Una de las aportaciones de este colectivo procede del think tank Centre for European Reform, que este viernes publicaba un artículo apoyando la idea de que el fondo de recuperación se convierta en una herramienta permanente: “A pesar de su tamaño, no es lo suficientemente grande como para mover permanentemente la inversión climática.

We need a new entente cordiale, but it won’t happen any time soon

04 December 2021
The Telegraph
According to analysis by the Centre for European Reform, UK goods trade was 11.2pc, or £8.5bn, lower in September than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.