Press

EU set for crucial summit on Ukraine aid as Hungary accuses bloc of 'blackmail'

31 January 2024
Voice of America
The EU financial assistance is vital for Kyiv, said Luigi Scazzieri with the Centre for European Reform. “That’s essentially budget support that Ukraine needs to stay in the war and to stay solvent. But it doesn’t aim to increase its military capacity. There is a separate budget line for that — that is also being held up by Hungary — and that will be discussed, as well. And that is a 5 billion [euro] top-up to a common fund that the EU has to supply weapons to Ukraine,” he told VOA.
CER Podcast: Europe's defence production challenge

CER Podcast: Europe's defence production challenge

Luigi Scazzieri, Camille Grand
31 January 2024
Camille Grand and Luigi Scazzieri discuss European defence.

Four years of denial have left the UK in chaos

31 January 2024
The New European
Post-pandemic, the UK remains the only major rich economy that is smaller than it was beforehand. Another report by the Centre for European Reform revealed that the UK’s goods trade is 7% lower, and investment 11% lower than it would have been had the Remain campaign won in 2016.

Brexit: where we are four years on

31 January 2024
The Week
Taken together, said John Springford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, the missed growth in goods and services trade account for "about a £23 billion quarterly hit" to UK exports,  which is consistent with a GDP reduction of 4%-5% compared to a Britain that had remained.
Alemania debe tomarse más en serio la desvinculación de la UE de China

Alemania debe tomarse más en serio la desvinculación de la UE de China

Sander Tordoir, Sebastian de Quant, Shahin Vallée
30 January 2024
El Pais
La considerable ventaja de Donald Trump en las encuestas sobre el presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, es un presagio de dolor económico para Europa, sobre todo para la mayor economía del continente.

How Brussels can precision-tune its instruments of trade conflict

29 January 2024
Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform solves two paradoxes about how the UK’s trade performance apparently hasn’t suffered from Brexit the way you might have predicted.

Europe is heading for perilous waters, and its leaders are dozing at the tiller

27 January 2024
The Observer
Trump’s resurrection “would endanger European interests but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks,” warned Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform. Defence, transatlantic economic relations and Trump’s disdain for the rules-based international order were looming problem areas.

Preparing Europe for Trump 2.0

27 January 2024
Financial Times
In this article for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Ian Bond sets out some fairly drastic options for Europe if Trump were to pull the plug on Ukraine: "Nato and EU members that take defence seriously should be war-gaming not only how to save Ukraine, but how to respond to an attack on an EU or Nato member in the event that the US decided to remain aloof.

‘Very damaging’: ECB policy fuels fears for German economy

27 January 2024
EurActiv
Andresen’s comments were echoed by Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, who told Euractiv that “most of the data suggests that the ECB should cut aggressively and rather soon”, although he didn’t expect the ECB to actually cut rates “until April or June”.Tordoir also pointed to studies – including by the ECB itself – which suggest that inflation in the eurozone, unlike in the US, is largely supply- instead of demand-driven.

Trump 2.0 – Wie sich Europa auf ein Comeback des Ex-Präsidenten vorbereiten kann

26 January 2024
Handelsblatt
Die drei Ökonomen Shahin Vallee, Sebastian de Quant und Sander Tordoir fordern in einem Aufsatz noch etwas anderes: Dass Europa auch wegen eines unter Trump drohenden US-chinesischen Handelskriegs noch schneller wirtschaftlich unabhängiger von China werden müsse.

Spanish workers leaving UK in droves blaming Brexit and cost of living

25 January 2024
iNews
Brexit led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the labour force as foreign workers left the UK, according to a report published last January by think-tank the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe. In hospitality and the food sector, it was four per cent or 67,000, while construction experienced a two per cent drop.

EU reveals new economic security plan to resist ‘fierce’ Chinese tech competition

25 January 2024
EurActiv
Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, similarly praised the package’s general sentiment but criticised it for proposing “too much of the same soft coordination that has failed us so far”.“I think directionally, it makes sense what they’re doing,” Tordoir told Euractiv. “They’re focussed on the right fault lines in the toolkit, like export controls and FDI screening, where Europe has been most vulnerable, fragmented.”

Brexit is leading to growing Balkanisation for business

25 January 2024
Financial Times
This week’s chart is a newsletter exclusive and comes courtesy of John Springford, at the Centre for European Reform. It addresses one of the conundrums of post-Brexit trade patterns that have perplexed researchers and economists.Here’s the question Springford poses: “The UK’s goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come?”
Germany needs to take the EU's de-risking from China more seriously

Germany needs to take the EU's de-risking from China more seriously

Sander Tordoir, Sebastian de Quant, Shahin Vallée
24 January 2024
Internationale Politik Quarterly
With another Trump presidency in the offing, Europe and Germany need to accelerate their efforts to reduce their economic dependencies on China.
Indo-Pacific calling: Where is the US heading and what does it mean for Europe?

Indo-Pacific calling: Where is the US heading and what does it mean for Europe?

Christina Keßler
24 January 2024
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards the Indo-Pacific. What are the implications for the transatlantic relationship?
Europa ist auf Trump nicht vorbereitet

Europa ist auf Trump nicht vorbereitet

Sander Tordoir, Shahin Vallee, Sebastian de Quant
23 January 2024
Die Zeit
Exportabhängigkeit und Handelsüberschuss: Die Probleme zwischen der EU und China sind schon groß genug. Trump könnte die europäische Wirtschaft in die Krise stürzen.
Trump may be President again in a year. Europe must be ready

Trump may be President again in a year. Europe must be ready

19 January 2024
Encompass
On 20 January 2025, the next US President will take office. In November 2023, the editor-at-large of The Washington Post, Robert Kagan, wrote “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending”.

Germany, once a powerhouse, is at an economic 'standstill'

18 January 2024
The New York Times
“Germans are so risk-averse, it’s almost a psychological thing,” said Sander Tordoir, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in Berlin.

EU prepares for possible second Donald Trump presidency

18 January 2024
CNN's Rosemary Church speaks with Ian Bond of the CER about how Europe is preparing for a possible second Donald Trump presidency.
CER Podcast: The Taiwan election: China cares, but should Europe?

CER Podcast: The Taiwan election: China cares, but should Europe?

Ian Bond, Christina Keßler, Philippe Le Corre, Helena Legarda
18 January 2024
Ian Bond, Christina Keßler, Philippe Le Corre and Helena Legarda discuss the Taiwan election.