British exit from the EU?
How Britain could leave the EU
26 November 2012
Britain's departure from the EU grows ever more likely. David Cameron, the prime minister, wants Britain to stay in. But he seems set on a path that could lead to an exit.
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.