Britain & the EU
Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal
24 April 2017
The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.
Playing defence
20 March 2017
The UK’s contributions to European defence will play a role in Brexit negotiations. But both sides should keep the long-term objective of close co-operation in mind.
Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult
20 February 2017
What will the Brexit deal look like? Which are the key decisions that Theresa May still has to make? And what should she do in order to get the best possible deal?
The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget
06 February 2017
A stand-off between the EU and Britain over the size of its exit bill could lead to the collapse of negotiations and an abrupt, disorderly Brexit.
Parliamentarians in Brexit talks: Bulls in a china shop?
01 February 2017
David Davis promised that Westminster will have the same scrutiny powers in the Brexit talks as the European Parliament would. But what does that really mean?
Britain's economy: Enjoy the calm before the storm
26 January 2017
Britain's economy has not weathered the Brexit storm. But the calm before the storm has lasted longer than many economists expected.
May is weak in Europe but strong at home
26 January 2017
The EU-27 fear domestic politics will drive Britain towards a very hard Brexit. But Theresa May is strong enough at home to resist such pressures, if she wishes to.
What does the Supreme Court's ruling mean for British parliamentary sovereignty?
25 January 2017
The Supreme Court ruled that Theresa May needs to ask Parliament for its consent to notify of the UK's intention to leave the EU.
What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain
19 January 2017
Britain and the EU-27 view migration very differently. That could complicate the Brexit and free trade negotiations.
What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?
17 January 2017
Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.
Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap
16 December 2016
Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.
A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.
Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple
22 November 2016
Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.
Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit
21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.
Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks
25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
Bulletin Issue 110 - October/November 2016
19 September 2016
- Why a hard Brexit looks likely, John Springford
- Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse, Simon Tilford
- Europe and its South China Sea dilemma, Rem Korteweg
Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse
19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals
28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.