British exit from the EU?

Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade

Sam Lowe
13 March 2018
Without an EU-UK customs union British exporters will face a new barrier to trade: rules of origin. No amount of positive thinking and innovative solutions can eliminate this problem.

Theresa May's Irish trilemma

07 March 2018
Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit.

Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy

06 March 2018
As part of the EU, the UK has been able to leverage the resources of other member-states to support Britain’s foreign and development priorities. After Brexit, that will be harder.

The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association?

Beth Oppenheim
27 February 2018
Some argue that a Ukraine-style association agreement offers the UK a viable model for its future relationship with the EU, combining both ‘sovereignty’ and close economic ties.

Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas

John Springford, Sam Lowe
05 February 2018
Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".

'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?

26 January 2018
The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.

Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house

John Springford, Sam Lowe
22 January 2018
The UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.

Of transition and trade deals

Sam Lowe
16 January 2018
The UK will not be able to replicate the EU’s free trade agreements ready for March 30th 2019. The only solution is to ask the EU for help.

Conference report: How to save the EU

Simon Tilford, Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch
15 January 2018
50 leading economists, political scientists and experts on the EU considered the forces undermining the Union, and how Europe should respond to them.

UK + EU = Canada+?

Beth Oppenheim, Charles Grant
01 December 2017
A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?

Ten predictions for the Brexit talks

29 November 2017
Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.

Dig for Victory?

Christian Odendahl, Beth Oppenheim, Christopher Haskins
16 November 2017
A UK trade deal with the US will create more problems for British agriculture and food consumers than it would solve.

Relaunching the EU

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Christian Odendahl, John Springford, Simon Tilford
07 November 2017
The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.

Populism – culture or economics?

John Springford, Simon Tilford
30 October 2017
Are economic factors to blame for the rise of populism, or is it a cultural backlash? The answer is a bit of both: economic weakness strengthens social conservatives' illiberal views.

Brexit and energy: Time to make some hard choices

25 September 2017
If Britain quits the EU’s single energy market, it will have to invest more in electricity generation, pay higher prices and accept a bigger state role in the energy sector.
How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?

How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?

19 September 2017
Britain’s strongest card in the negotiations is the money that the 27 claim it owes to the EU. But the money card gives Britain a pair rather than a flush.
The EU will become less monolithic

The EU will become less monolithic

19 September 2017
The EU is becoming less monolithic and will develop tiers of membership. This could re-energise the enlargement process and neighbourhood policy – and may allow the UK to re-engage one day.
What the German elections mean for Brexit

What the German elections mean for Brexit

Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch
30 August 2017
The German elections will not affect the outcome of Brexit, whatever coalition partner Angela Merkel may choose.