Britain & the EU
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
21 December 2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.
The UK needs a chips strategy
01 December 2022
London wants chip-makers in Britain to support innovation. But using national security laws to engineer that outcome is counterproductive. Instead, the UK needs a more sober post-Brexit tech policy.
Bulletin issue 147 - December 2022/January 2023
01 December 2022
- Now is not the time for Ukraine to negotiate, Ian Bond
- How the pandemic strengthened the EU, Camino Mortera-Martinez
- The UK needs a chips strategy, Zach Meyers
UK science and technology after Brexit: How to fix it
28 November 2022
Brexit has hurt British science and slowed the deployment of new technology across its economy. Rejoining the single market may be politically unrealistic, but Britain can still limit the damage.
How to fix the Northern Ireland Protocol
08 September 2022
Hilary Benn MP considers the stalemate between London and Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol and highlights key areas where both sides can achieve a compromise.
Four reasons why the UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol bill is a mistake
27 June 2022
The UK promises to “fix” the Northern Ireland protocol with unilateral legislation. This will be a major step backwards in trying to resolve genuine practical problems under the protocol.
What can we know about the cost of Brexit so far?
09 June 2022
The UK's GDP is 5.2 per cent smaller than a modelled ‘doppelgänger’ UK that did not leave the EU; investment is 13.7 per cent lower, and goods trade, 13.6 per cent lower. Most of those costs are down to Brexit.
The cost of Brexit: December 2021
10 March 2022
By December 2021, leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK goods trade by 14.9 per cent. And new analysis shows that UK exports have taken a larger hit than imports.
As Frost departs, will the ice melt across the Channel?
20 December 2021
David Frost’s resignation as Brexit minister matters: he greatly influenced Boris Johnson’s Brexit policy. With Liz Truss replacing him, UK policy towards the EU may become less confrontational.
The cost of Brexit: October 2021
13 December 2021
In October 2021, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.
The cost of Brexit: September 2021
29 November 2021
In September 2021, UK goods trade was 11.2 per cent, or £8.5 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.
The three deaths of EU-UK data adequacy
15 November 2021
European and British businesses can still freely transfer personal data between the EU and UK. This situation has spared both sides disruption – but is unlikely to last.
EU-UK relations: There is no steady state
26 October 2021
The current crisis over the Northern Ireland protocol will pass, but tensions between the EU and the UK are not going away.
Opening Pandora's Box: What the EU-UK trade deal means for trade and conditionality
13 October 2021
The EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement includes world-leading sustainability commitments.
Medical devices and the limits of UK regulatory autonomy
05 August 2021
Medical devices illustrate the limited scope for post-Brexit UK divergence from EU rules, and the trade-offs the UK must face.
The cost of Brexit: May 2021
21 July 2021
The Centre for European Reform estimates that leaving the single market and customs union has reduced UK trade in goods by £10 billion or 13.5 per cent in May 2021.
Five years since the referendum: A short reflection, and some highlights of the CER's Brexit coverage
23 June 2021
Five years have passed since the British voted to leave the EU. Since then the CER has published 174 papers on Brexit.
Objection! Why the EU opposes the UK's plans for cross-Channel litigation
18 June 2021
Brexit has made cross-border litigation harder. While bigger companies will cope, EU and UK citizens and small businesses will suffer.
The cost of Brexit: April 2021
14 June 2021
We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in April 2021. That is on top of our previous finding of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.
The cost of Brexit: March 2021
12 May 2021
We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in March 2021. That is on top of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.