Macroeconomics & the euro

What explains Europe's rejection of macroeconomic orthodoxy?

What explains Europe's rejection of macroeconomic orthodoxy?

05 February 2014
European policy-makers' rejection of both Keynesianism and monetarism has cut economic growth, raised debt and increased the risk of deflation.
The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK’s trade and

The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK's trade and investment

20 January 2014
Eurosceptics think Britain can leave the EU and still have access to its markets. But to do so, Britain will have to sign up to EU rules. 
Why Germany’s trade surplus is bad for the eurozone

Why Germany’s trade surplus is bad for the eurozone

29 November 2013
In late October, the US singled out Germany as a threat to the global economy. The Treasury issued a report saying that Germany’s current account surplus – now around 7 per cent of GDP – imposes "a deflationary bias for the eurozone as well as for the world economy."
Eurozone recovery: The world is not enough

Eurozone recovery: The world is not enough

04 October 2013
The eurozone is too big to rely on exports for economic growth. It needs policies suited to a large continental economy, not ones perfected by Germany.
Banking union – or Potemkin village?

Banking union – or Potemkin village?

Philip Whyte
27 September 2013
Since mid-2012, the eurozone crisis has been in remission. The period of relative calm which has prevailed since then has not been the product of an upturn in economic fortunes: until the recent summer uptick, the eurozone had suffered six consecutive quarters of declining activity and rising unemployment (a result in part of synchronised fiscal austerity across the region as a whole).
The future of Europe's economy: Disaster or deliverance?

The future of Europe's economy: Disaster or deliverance?

Paul De Grauwe, George Magnus, Thomas Mayer, Holger Schmieding
18 September 2013
Four leading economists give widely divergent diagnoses of the eurozone's problems and very different policy prescriptions. The EU's future could depend upon which is right.
Continuity and change Germany's EU policy thumbnail

Continuity and change in Germany's EU policy

06 September 2013
Germany's EU policy is shifting. It will seek a 'grand bargain' with France but be tougher on the Commission. Treaty change is moving off the agenda.
The spectre of default stalks the eurozone file thumbnail

The spectre of default stalks the eurozone

24 July 2013
A popular narrative has taken hold across much of the eurozone. The economic situation, so the story goes, is improving, or at least bottoming out, and the necessary institutional reforms are being put in place.
Don't let England's poujadists kill London's golden goose

Don't let England's poujadists kill London's golden goose

08 July 2013
London keeps Britain afloat. But the city's wealth is dependent on its openness to immigrants, which is threatened by the country's increasingly hysterical immigration debate.
Can national parliaments make the EU legitimate?

Can national parliaments make the EU more legitimate?

10 June 2013
The euro crisis has hit the EU's legitimacy. Part of the answer is to give national parliamentarians a bigger role in the EU.
The CER commission on the UK and the single market

The CER commission on the UK and the single market

07 June 2013
The CER's commission was launched this week. Policy experts, economists and business people will examine the economic case for and against EU membership.
Why the has eurozone's recovery been weaker than the US's?

Why has the eurozone's recovery been weaker than the US's?

Philip Whyte
24 May 2013
The eurozone has experienced a much weaker economic recovery than the US since 2009. The reason is that it has made more glaring policy mistakes.
A dose of inflation would help the eurozone medicine go down

A dose of inflation would help the eurozone medicine go down

16 May 2013
Eurozone policy-makers are complacent about the risks of low inflation. If the euro is to survive, inflation will need to rise significantly, especially in Germany.
European austerity: Turn or TINA?

European austerity: Turn or TINA?

25 April 2013
Despite the overwhelming weight of evidence, both empirical and theoretical, many policy-makers will continue to trot out Margaret Thatcher's favourite line: there is no alternative.
It’s the politics, stupid!

It's the politics, stupid!

25 March 2013
Many economists have been accused of being too gloomy about the euro because they underestimate the degree of political commitment that eurozone countries have made to the euro.
Do Britain's European ties damage its prosperity?

Do Britain's European ties damage its prosperity?

Philip Whyte
22 March 2013
Leaving the EU would not resolve Britain's economic difficulties, which are mostly home-grown. However, it could turn Britain into a more closed economy.
Freeing the transatlantic economy – prospects, benefits and pitfalls

Freeing the transatlantic economy – prospects, benefits and pitfalls

Philip Whyte
20 February 2013
The EU and the US would benefit from freeing up transatlantic commerce. To succeed, they must agree some rules of engagement and stick to them.