Macroeconomics & the euro

Grexit

Greece: After a deal, work on a solution

Christian Odendahl
11 June 2015
A deal between Greece and its creditors is still likely but what the country really needs is a Greece-led, cross-party plan to transform its institutions. 
How will the eurozone cope with the next downturn?

How will the eurozone cope with the next downturn?

27 May 2015
Eurozone policy-makers will have little ammunition to combat the next downturn: interest rates will still be close to zero, public debt and unemployment high.
Do the UK's European ties damage its prosperity?

Do the UK's European ties damage its prosperity?

Philip Whyte
30 April 2015
Eurosceptic claims that EU regulation and the protectionism of other member-states are holding back Britain's economy – and that withdrawal would be a liberation – are nonsense.
Vorsprung durch Grexit?

Vorsprung durch Grexit?

Charles Grant, Christian Odendahl
17 April 2015
German officials are sanguine about the consequences of Grexit, and view it as increasingly likely. Merkel would be well-advised to prevent it from happening.
The low-hanging fruit of European capital markets

The low-hanging fruit of European capital markets

Christian Odendahl
08 April 2015
The planned capital markets union in Europe faces many obstacles. Commissioner Hill was right to start with the lower-hanging fruit.
Disunited Kingdom: Why ‘Brexit’ endangers Britain’s poorer regions

Disunited Kingdom: Why ‘Brexit’ endangers Britain’s poorer regions

07 April 2015
A British exit from the EU most imperils the UK's poorest regions, and could make the country's regional inequality worse.
German rebalancing: Waiting for Godot?

German rebalancing: Waiting for Godot?

09 March 2015
Far from rebalancing, Germany’s trade surplus continues to grow. This is in nobody’s interests. The German government could and should take steps to reduce it.
Reduced to rouble?

Reduced to rouble? An update on the Russian economy

Christian Odendahl
24 February 2015
The Russian economy is heading for a long recession. Economic collapse, which could still occur, is not in the West's interests.
The implications of Syriza’s victory

The implications of Syriza’s victory

Christian Odendahl, Simon Tilford
26 January 2015
Greece is not at imminent risk of leaving the euro. But the negotiations will be difficult and uncertainties over Greece's membership will persist.
Quantitative easing alone will not ward off deflation

Quantitative easing alone will not ward off deflation

Christian Odendahl
21 January 2015
Quantitative easing alone will do little to boost the eurozone economy. The ECB needs to shift expectations and this requires a different approach to monetary policy.
Greece will remain in the euro for now

Greece will remain in the euro for now

Christian Odendahl, Simon Tilford
16 January 2015
Neither Greece nor the eurozone want Grexit, and it is unlikely to happen. But neogiations will be difficult and uncertainties over Greece's membership will persist.
Germany and the eurozone: The view from Paris

Germany and the eurozone: The view from Paris

16 December 2014
The French are gloomy about their relationship with the Germans and the chances of economic growth. But they are working on new ideas for eurozone governance.
The ECB is not the German central bank

The ECB is not the German central bank

Christian Odendahl
02 December 2014
The ECB should stop waiting for German approval of more aggressive monetary policy, and Germany should back the ECB more openly.
Public investment: A modest proposal

Public investment: A modest proposal

01 December 2014
A eurozone-wide public investment stimulus is neither impossible nor mad, but should be part of a strategy to pull the economy off the rocks.
Does a eurozone slump make Brexit more likely?

Does a eurozone slump make Brexit more likely?

10 November 2014
Eurozone stagnation will encourage migration to Britain, boost its EU budget contributions, and rebalance its trade towards non-EU markets. This will embolden eurosceptics.
A Greek programme for Greece

A Greek programme for Greece

Christian Odendahl
05 November 2014
The programmes for Greece are not working. It is time for a new approach that focuses on the long-term and Greek ownership.
The eurozone’s German problem

The eurozone’s German problem

20 October 2014
Germany’s uncompromising stance is short-sighted, and poses a greater risk to its economic and political interests than a ‘grand bargain’ with the French and Italians.