Research

“El triunfo de Reform UK ―la reencarnación del Partido del Brexit― en las elecciones locales del 1 de mayo va a aumentar la precaución extrema del Gobierno laborista a la hora de dar pasos que pueden ser vistos como demasiado proeuropeos. Y el ascenso de Reform UK también ha tenido su efecto sobre la visión que la UE tiene del Reino Unido: algunos líderes europeos se muestran reticentes a lograr una reconciliación amplia con Londres, ante el temor de que en cuatro años se acabe asentando en Westminster [como se denomina al Parlamento británico] un Gobierno fuertemente euroescéptico”, han señalado Aslak Berg, Ian Bond y Charles Grant, del influyente Centre for European Reform, en su informe previo a la cumbre.

“Germany obviously switched off its plants, and I think in parts of the political spectrum, that’s now considered a mistake, because it’s seen as a reliable source of energy,” says Sander Tordoir, the chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.

Aslak Berg, a trade expert for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, warned the deal would mean Brussels demanding further alignment in the future.He said: “Once you say we are going to do dynamic alignment, we’re going to accept oversight in some form by the European court, that obviously raises the question ‘why not do this for other sectors?’“Maybe there are other sectors, maybe energy, electricity, where the same exception could be made.”

“The legally most rock-solid way to ban Russia’s remaining energy imports would be sanctions, but that route is barred due to it requiring unanimous approval by all EU governments,” Elisabetta Cornago, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Energy Source, noting that the pro-Russian governments Hungary and Slovakia would block any sanctions.

"I think it [a US trade deal with the UK],will cause a certain amount of irritation in Brussels. And it's not because there's a direct conflict between the EU and the UK. It won't jeopardise the relationship between the EU and the UK. But it does set a bad precedent," says Aslak Berg, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform.

“The fact that Xi Jinping is snubbing Europe to attend a military parade in Moscow is a clear signal that a trade detente – let alone a European pivot from the US to China – is largely a dead end,” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.

“There is a real risk to the government’s ability to pass difficult economic reforms, and make those really big investments in defence and infrastructure,” says Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.Tordoir suggested that MPs who voted against Merz may have been trying to signal their unhappiness with his “impulsive” leadership style.