Research

Paradox Frankrijk heeft een zwakke regering met een onzekere toekomst, en toch blijft het een dominante kracht in het EU‑beleid. Hoe valt die paradox te verklaren, vraagt Charles Grant van het Centre for European Reform. Handig: hij geeft zelf het antwoord.

According to the Centre for European Reform, the grid also needs one-third more interconnectors to allow renewable energy to flow from windy or sunny areas and help the bloc advance its overall transition. 

A 2018 Whitehall study estimated that leaving the EU customs union was responsible for about 1 per cent of lost GDP, according to John Springford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. However, he cautioned that re-forming a customs union with the EU would not necessarily recoup all of those losses, given the lasting impact of Brexit on investment in critical industries such as carmaking. 

"The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP," said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Economists at the Centre for European Reform reckon that the government's reset package — if delivered in full — is worth somewhere between 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent of UK GDP over a decade.  

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, welcomed the return of subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, which will include a "local content" requirement, expected to ease pressure on the beleaguered automotive industry. "Starting by stimulating consumption, in a situation where both domestic and external demand are very weak, is not a bad idea, even if it is not as effective in the long run as investing in infrastructure or education," he said.