Research

CER podcast: Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic is deepening the transatlantic rift

03 June 2020
Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic is creating new friction

Europe pieces together €750bn plan as Berlin ditches the frugal four

30 May 2020
The Telegraph
“The proposal is for the first time a European fiscal response to a severe shock and I think that is significant,” says Christian Odendahl, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform. “This will be temporary and those who are sceptical about fiscal integration will make sure it is temporary.”

Milliarden als Medizin (und ihre Nebenwirkungen)

30 May 2020
Der Spiegel
Eine "hohe Konsumneigung" nennt das Christian Odendahl, Chefökonom des Centre for European Reform. Heißt: Eltern konsumieren meistens schneller als andere, auch eine Einmalzahlung würden sie also eher nicht aufs Sparbuch legen. Aus diesem Grund hält Odendahl auch eine Verdoppelung des Kindergeldes für einen Ansatz, "bis die Krise vorbei ist".

Game-changing EU recovery fund must deliver cash fast to succeed

29 May 2020
Bloomberg Quint
“What is the immediate fiscal and macroeconomic boost, that we get from this? It may be more modest than many believe,” said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “It’s important that national governments complement this investment-led strategy with more down-to-earth, plain-vanilla demand spending of their own.”

Stilton, whisky and pork pies become the next Brexit battleground

29 May 2020
The Telegraph
“I’m slightly at a loss as to why the UK thinks it can reopen the discussion on GIs, having already conceded to the EU’s demands as part of the Withdrawal Agreement,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

Has the EU just crossed its Rubicon to unity?

28 May 2020
The New European
Christian Odendahl, the chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, confirms. However, German politicians are stressing that the half-a-trillion-euro plan is a one-off solution for a once-in-a-lifetime crisis, he says.“So, in a way you can say that Germany broke its own taboos – but only to a certain extent,” Odendahl told me. “This shows that Germany really is willing to put its money where its mouth is and provide solidarity for Europe in an crisis. Describing it as a 180-degree turnaround is not fair though. It does not change the basics.”

Judy Asks: Hong Kong calls. Can Europe respond?

28 May 2020
Carnegie Europe
What happens in Hong Kong with China’s new national security legislation will seriously test Europe’s commitment to democracy, international law, and human rights.

'Defining moment' as EU executive pushes for €500bn in grants

28 May 2020
The Guardian
“Member-states hate [EU taxes] because they basically lose power,” Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian Green MEP, told the Centre for European Reform think-tank on Wednesday. But he expressed hope EU finance ministers would change their attitudes. “I think that the pandemic and this recovery plan are gamechangers and if we agree to borrow together we will need to reimburse together … in a way the pandemic opened doors that many believed totally shut up until now.”

Deadlock looms at Brexit talks next week

28 May 2020
The Economist
Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, says it is even possible that the June summit may decide to abandon the negotiations, though Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, suggests the crunch is more likely to be in the autumn.

CER podcast: A Hamilton moment?

22 May 2020
On 18th May, Merkel and Macron proposed a €500bn recovery fund for the EU. John Springford and Christian Odendahl discuss why it's needed, and whether reluctant countries will back it.

The EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost

21 May 2020
Financial Times
Frugal states may block needed transfers to the south but there is a way forward.

Brexit fury: Boris and Varadkar set to clash over UK-Ireland customs infrastructure

21 May 2020
The Express
Centre for European Reform research fellow Sam Lowe added: “The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the CETA deal with Canada.“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

Let's not pretend the UK isn't after a special trade deal. In fact, it's good that it is

20 May 2020
The Telegraph
Given the EU's most significant economic relationship is with the UK, a trade deal should be ambitious - but compromise is still needed.

UK: Brexit trade deal demands 'go beyond' other EU agreements

20 May 2020
City A.M
Centre for European Reform research fellow Sam Lowe added: “The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the Ceta deal with Canada.
“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

British trade experts slam UK government’s ‘unrealistic’ Brexit deal demands

20 May 2020
The New European
Sam Lowe from the think tank, the Centre for European Reform, said certain demands, such as automatic recognition of British qualifications, went “far beyond” what the EU offered other trading partners like Japan and Canada.

To burn or not to burn? Waste and bridges

20 May 2020
Interfax
But interestingly, a few days ago, an article was released in London about how Covid-19 is transforming how the European Union works, by Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. Despite the fact that the UK has left the EU, Grant remains one of the most informed and acute experts and he highlights the following as what he sees as undesirable trends for Europe:

UK post-Brexit trade plan cuts tariffs but highlights EU risks

19 May 2020
Bloomberg
An advantage of the U.K.’s announcement is that it helps its ongoing trade negotiations with the EU, the U.S and Japan, because it makes clear what the default duties would be if no agreement is reached in these talks, according to Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.Britain’s plan also marks a walk-back from the temporary tariff schedule it proposed in the event of a no-deal Brexit last year, which would have seen 87% of U.K. imports made tariff-free. That proposal was criticized for giving away too much British leverage in future trade talks.

Britain’s vision for EU trade deal prompts claims of cherry picking

19 May 2020
Financial Times
“The British request to have British qualifications recognised by default, subject to terms and conditions, goes far beyond the EU-Japan deal, or the Ceta deal with Canada,” said Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform.“This is not necessarily impossible but it is not the kind of things the EU hands readily in its free trade agreements.”

UK plan to cut US farming tariffs sparks ministerial spat

14 May 2020
Financial Times
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said a “big offer” on agriculture would be necessary to make any trade deal acceptable to the Trump administration and US Congress. “The US has long seen its beef, chicken and pork shut out of European markets because of high tariffs and restrictive regulations. If the UK is able to table an offer that deals with all of these concerns, then a trade deal can be done,” he said, adding that such concessions “might prove controversial with British farmers and consumers”.

The virus isn't the only problem for Germany's nose-diving economy

14 May 2020
Bloomberg Quint
“The fiscal consolidation over the last 10 years has not increased our ability to weather this crisis,” said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “We refrained from going on a massive spending spree or lowering taxes massively. For the health of the European and world economy, we probably should have done both.”

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