Research

As in 2022, Orbán fought the election on the dangers of being dragged into the Ukraine war. But, notes Zselyke Csaky of the Centre for European Reform, people cannot be in fear constantly for four years, so the message lost its relevance and immediacy. 

Foreign interference has been a dominant Orbán motif throughout his campaigning for a contest that Zselyke Csáky at the Centre for European Reform in Budapest terms “the EU’s most important election” not just this year but for “quite some time”.

„Það virkar eins og vindurinn sé meira í seglum stjórnarandstöðunnar, en við verðum að bíða eftir niðurstöðunum á sunnudag; Viktor Orban er sterkur andstæðingur sem hefur verið við völd í sextán ár,“ segir Zselyke Csaky, stjórnmálaskýrandi og greinandi hjá Centre for European Reform hugveitunni í Brussel í samtali við RÚV.

Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, doubted Mr Vance’s visit would do much to change the outcome of the election.
Ms Csaky said Mr Orbán has tried to frame the campaign as a fight against foreign enemies, but voters care more about their economic prospects.
For Fidesz voters, Mr Vance’s visit “shows that Orbán is a global player. But for everyone else that may not be the most important thing, because they don’t necessarily see Hungary winning from that position right now,” she said.

“For Orban, the goal is to mobilize voters a few days before the election, but JD Vance will not convince new voters or the undecided,” said Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank. “For Vance, it seems the trip serves a dual goal: propping up an ally and using it as an opportunity to criticise Brussels and the rest of Europe at the same time.”

“It is war versus wallets,” says Zselyke Csaky of the Centre for European Reform.

 « C’est la première chance réelle pour l’opposition de le défaire », observe Zselyke Csaky, du Centre for European reform.

Die EU-eigene Denkfabrik Centre for European Reform weist in einem Bericht aus dem Februar 2026 darauf hin, dass Budapest bei anhaltender Blockade schrittweise weitere Beträge dauerhaft verlieren könnte.