Research & Press

The chances of a Brexit deal between Labour and Tories seem small

17 April 2019
The Economist
Being in a customs union may indeed make it impossible to do independent trade deals for goods. But Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, notes that this does not preclude deals on services, public procurement or immigration visas, even if it makes them harder.

How the City of London’s Brexit lobbying barrage failed

15 April 2019
Financial Times
The sector recognised how much it stood to lose if it did not keep its connections with the EU but the travelling caravan ruffled more than a few feathers. “There are lots of stories of arrogance . . . about the UK going round European capitals and saying ‘you need us’. That got people’s backs up,” said Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Brussels goes ahead with US trade talks despite French opposition

15 April 2019
The Telegraph
Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform said the step was an effort to “stall Trump” in the imposition of vehicle tariffs.
The step is “probably all the EU can do” and will not necessarily achieve more than a delay to tariffs coming into force, Mr Lowe added. He expects the levies to come into force, possibly before the end of this year.
It was a politically “clever” decision for France to vote against the mandate presented on Monday, as “they knew they could oppose it without stopping it happening” thanks to qualified majority voting, he added.
 

Theresa May CANCELS Easter break for Brexit negotiators to fight Nigel Farage

13 April 2019
The Mirror
The People’s Vote campaign says the economy shrunk by £40 billion to £51 billion a year compared to where it would be if Britain voted to stay in 2016. Economists at the Centre for European Reform say the £360 million a week black hole – more than the £350 million Brexit boost bus claim – hit tax revenue, deepening and extending austerity.

BBC News: New Brexit extension

11 April 2019
Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform spoke to BBC News about the new Brexit extension (at 11.45).

Tok FM: Agata Gostyńska "Po raz pierwszy mam poczucie - a może jednak nie wyjdą?"

11 April 2019
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform commented on the EUCO summit and the Brexit extension.

No-deal Brexit: What it means, how it could happen, and how it might affect daily life in the UK

11 April 2019
The Telegraph
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, is confident that if the crunch comes EU member states will strike bilateral side-deals with the UK to cushion the blow. “For now the Commission is taking a strong line, but EU member states will have to look after their own interests”, he predicts.

Macron tests German patience in split over Brexit delay

11 April 2019
Reuters
“Franco-German relations are in a troubled period,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. He cited differences on euro zone reform, relations with the United States, EU defence policy and tax rules for the digital economy.
“More broadly, France wants Europe to be a power and therefore believes it needs radical reform,” Grant said. Germany is quite happy with the way the EU works at the moment.”
 

Judy Asks: Is Brexit bad for Europe?

11 April 2019
Carnegie Europe
Yes – and that’s not just British hubris. True, Britain has always been an awkward member of the EU, pushing back against continental hopes for a more federalist Union.

CER podcast: The cost of Brexit to December 2018

10 April 2019
The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis and draws some political lessons from the findings.

Newsnight: The how, why and if of the new Brexit extension

09 April 2019
European fears that the UK would disrupt EU affairs during a further Brexit extension are probably overblown, Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform tells BBC Newsnight (from 06:28 mins). 

Brussels weighs risks of parting shots from Britain

09 April 2019
Financial Times
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, argues the concerns over the UK “are overblown” given UK interests in maintaining goodwill with the EU, whatever government holds office in London,“The Jacob Rees-Mogg strategy of guerrilla warfare from within would preclude that,” said Mr Grant. “And if a hardline Eurosceptic government sought to provoke the EU into forcing the British out via a no-deal situation, parliament would not stand for it. Jacob Rees-Mogg can huff and puff and feel good about what he says but it’s not a strategy that will win support among MPs.”

In Brexit delay, UK economy remains prisoner of uncertainty

09 April 2019
The Daily Mail
According to the Centre for European Reform, the British economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if the country had voted to remain in the EU, largely due to higher inflation and lower investment."The UK missed out on a broad-based upturn in growth among advanced economies in 2017 and early 2018 and the economic cost of the decision so far is sizeable," said CER's deputy director, John Springford.

Aljazeera: Right wing populist alliance

08 April 2019
Luigi Scazzieri, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform argues that the new right wing populist alliance is internally divided, and will find it difficult to co-perate in the new European Parliament.

Le Pen and Italy’s right in joint assault on EU parliament

07 April 2019
The Sunday Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, is sceptical about the chance of unity. “There is something about far-right groups, a bit like Trotskyites on the left, that makes them fissiparous and unable to work together,” he said.

Mark Carney still stands taller than Brexit's lost leaders

06 April 2019
The Guardian
One of the leading Remain think-tanks is the Centre for European Reform (CER), whose very name denotes an acceptance that all is not right with the EU. But its work shows that leaving is not the answer.Even before the calamity that almost certainly awaits us if King, Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have their way, the CER finds that in the period from the referendum on 23 June 2016 to December 2018, the UK economy became 2.5% smaller than it would have been if we had voted to Remain. The CER states: “The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19bn per annum – or £360m a week.” Does £360m a week remind you of another figure? That’s right: one of the many lies of the Leave campaign was that the NHS would benefit by £350m a week.

How Corbyn and May could find consensus on Brexit - and what the result might look like

05 April 2019
Prospect
As Sam Lowe from the Centre for European Reform has argued convincingly, a customs union does not simply prevent the UK from developing an independent trade policy; instead it requires it to align its tariff regime with the EU’s common external tariff.

Internal strife: NATO's greatest enemy is itself as it turns 70

05 April 2019
Euronews
NATO’s first Secretary General, Lord Hastings Ismay, famously said the alliance’s purpose was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.”

Stammtisch: Going the distance - Transatlantic relations today

05 April 2019
Germany has headed to New York to take its seat on the UN Security Council - while Barack Obama has come to Germany. Damien McGuinness and DW's Fabian von der Mark chat US-German relations with former US government advisor Julie Smith and NATO expert Sophia Besch from the Centre for European Reform.

No-deal Brexit would not be the end of the world – just very, very, very bad

04 April 2019
The New Statesman
Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, some have convinced themselves that exiting the EU without an agreement – “no deal” – is a good idea. It is not.

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