Brexit
The UK brought down the curtain on 47 years of membership of the European Union on January 31st 2020. Both parties managed to rubber-stamp a trade and co-operation agreement (TCA) before the deadline of December 31st 2020, which includes provisions for trade, fishing, data sharing and security. However, the Brexit process triggered by the 2016 referendum is far from over. The UK and the EU disagree over how to interpret both the TCA and the earlier Withdrawal Agreement, which sets the terms for Britain’s departure, including the financial arrangements and the special status that will apply to Northern Ireland. The two sides are likely to be negotiating over their disagreements for many years to come.
The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution
24 April 2018
With the UK leaving, the EU needs a revised budget. It should cut rebates, agriculture spending, and structural funds; and spend more on border security, education, and research.
Is Labour selling the UK a Turkey?
12 April 2018
A future UK-EU customs union should not be ruled out. While it would place some constraints on a future UK independent trade policy, the positives far outweigh the negatives.
Brexit and the financial services industry: The story so far
27 March 2018
The City will survive Brexit, but it will not emerge unscathed. In order to remain competitive Britain’s financial services industry will need to adapt, as it has always done.
Will the unity of the 27 crack?
15 March 2018
Some British politicians believe that the 27 will divide during the Brexit trade negotiations, because of their differing economic interests. But disagreements between the 27 are minor, thanks to Theresa May's red lines.
Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade
13 March 2018
Without an EU-UK customs union British exporters will face a new barrier to trade: rules of origin. No amount of positive thinking and innovative solutions can eliminate this problem.
Theresa May's Irish trilemma
07 March 2018
Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit.
Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy
06 March 2018
As part of the EU, the UK has been able to leverage the resources of other member-states to support Britain’s foreign and development priorities. After Brexit, that will be harder.
The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association?
27 February 2018
Some argue that a Ukraine-style association agreement offers the UK a viable model for its future relationship with the EU, combining both ‘sovereignty’ and close economic ties.
Theresa May's moment to soften her Brexit stance
23 February 2018
The Financial Times
Twenty months after the Brexit referendum, the British government is inching towards working out what to ask for in its future relationship with the EU.
Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas
05 February 2018
Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".
'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?
26 January 2018
The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.
Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house
22 January 2018
The UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.
Of transition and trade deals
16 January 2018
The UK will not be able to replicate the EU’s free trade agreements ready for March 30th 2019. The only solution is to ask the EU for help.
The biggest Brexit boon for Germany? Migration
11 December 2017
Germany's economy desperately needs qualified immigrants to fill 780,000 jobs. Brexit will help it to do so.
UK + EU = Canada+?
01 December 2017
A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?
Ten predictions for the Brexit talks
29 November 2017
Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.
Dig for Victory?
16 November 2017
A UK trade deal with the US will create more problems for British agriculture and food consumers than it would solve.
Relaunching the EU
07 November 2017
The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.
Brexit and energy: Time to make some hard choices
25 September 2017
If Britain quits the EU’s single energy market, it will have to invest more in electricity generation, pay higher prices and accept a bigger state role in the energy sector.
How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?
19 September 2017
Britain’s strongest card in the negotiations is the money that the 27 claim it owes to the EU. But the money card gives Britain a pair rather than a flush.