Brexit timeline

On June 23rd 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU. The timeline below tells the story of the events since that fateful day, collating all of the Centre for European Reform’s work on Brexit. The CER’s contacts in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and other capitals – and its expertise on economic, migration and security policy – continue to make it the key source of Brexit analysis for voters, policy-makers, journalists and businesses.

Oldest to newest
Newest to oldest
Referendum
23 June 2016
Cameron announces resignation
24 June 2016
The impact of Brexit on the EU

The impact of Brexit on the EU

The EU will not dissolve after Brexit, but it will change incrementally. The UK will probably end up with a free trade agreement like Canada’s.
25 June 2016
How Leave outgunned Remain: The battle of the 'five Ms'

How Leave outgunned Remain: The battle of the 'five Ms'

Remain suffered from unconvincing messengers, too narrow a message, difficulties over migration, a savage media and a ruthless Leave campaign machine.
29 June 2016
Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care

Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care

Britain is in serious trouble. It does not need further concessions from you, but the dust needs to settle before it can take decisions about its future.
Simon Tilford
11 July 2016
Long day’s journey into economic night

Long day’s journey into economic night

Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.
Theresa May becomes new PM
15 July 2016
How Brexit is changing the EU

How Brexit is changing the EU

By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
CER podcast: Discussion on Theresa May's new cabinet

CER podcast: Discussion on Theresa May's new cabinet

A conversation about the strategy behind recent appointments, consequences for Britain’s foreign policy and trade relations, and an outlook on the start of negotiations with the EU-27. 
Sophia Besch, Simon Tilford, Ian Bond, Rem Korteweg, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
18 July 2016
Britain's limited options

Britain's limited options

Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?

Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?

The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.
28 July 2016
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals

Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals

Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.
29 July 2016
CER Podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May’s visit to Warsaw

CER Podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May’s visit to Warsaw

Sophia Besch talks to Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about Polish priorities during the Brexit negotiations and consequences of the British vote to leave the EU for the bilateral relationship between the UK and Poland.
1 August 2016
CER podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May's Brexit negotiations

CER podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May's Brexit negotiations

Sophia Besch talks to Charles Grant about the six deals that the British government will have to strike – with the EU, the WTO and bilaterally – in order to realise the Brexit vote.
5 August 2016
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.
8 September 2016
CER podcast: Charles Grant and Nick Clegg on Brexit challenges

CER podcast: Charles Grant and Nick Clegg on Brexit challenges

Charles Grant talks to Nick Clegg MP about the challenges facing the EU-UK exit negotiations, after the launch of his second 'Brexit Challenge' report.
Charles Grant, Nick Clegg MP
16 September 2016
CER podcast: Simon Tilford and Alexander Stubb on Brexit and the future of Britain and the EU

CER podcast: Simon Tilford and Alexander Stubb on Brexit and the future of Britain and the EU

Simon Tilford speaks to former Prime Minister of Finland Alexander Stubb about the implications of Brexit and the challenges ahead for the EU.
Simon Tilford, Alexander Stubb
19 September 2016
Why a hard Brexit looks likely

Why a hard Brexit looks likely

Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.
Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse

Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse

Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities
Simon Tilford
20 September 2016
CER podcast: Last week in EU affairs

CER podcast: Last week in EU affairs

Sophia Besch talks to Ian Bond and Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about the Bratislava summit, President Jean-Claude Juncker's State of the European Union address and defence union proposals.
3 October 2016
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
CER podcast: Charles Grant on negotiating Brexit – priorities on both sides of the channel

CER podcast: Charles Grant on negotiating Brexit – priorities on both sides of the channel

Sophia Besch talks to CER's director Charles Grant about Brexit red lines in Paris, Berlin and Brussels and a negotiation strategy for the British.
7 October 2016
CER podcast: The rights of EU migrants in Britain after Brexit

CER podcast: The rights of EU migrants in Britain after Brexit

CER researchers assess the credibility, legality and practical feasibility of political proposals to restrict the rights of EU migrants in the UK.
21 October 2016
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
John Springford, Simon Tilford
25 October 2016
Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
26 October 2016
CER podcast: Charles Grant and Jean Pisani-Ferry on UK-EU relations and the future of the Eurozone

CER podcast: Charles Grant and Jean Pisani-Ferry on UK-EU relations and the future of the Eurozone

Charles Grant and Jean Pisani-Ferry discuss the chances of a ‘continental partnership’ between Britain and the EU post Brexit.
Charles Grant, Sophia Besch, Jean Pisani-Ferry
16 November 2016
CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode one

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode one

In this episode, Barry Eichengreen and Martin Wolf discuss 'Are macro-economic policy failures behind the rise of populism?'
Christian Odendahl, Barry Eichengreen, Martin Wolf
21 November 2016
Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.
22 November 2016
A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters

A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters

Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.
Simon Tilford
Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple

Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple

Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.
12 December 2016
Brexit and the economics of populism

Brexit and the economics of populism

Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.
Simon Tilford, John Springford
14 December 2016
EU defence, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EU defence, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Brexit and Trump compel European leaders to get serious about EU defence. But a lack of leadership and investment will make sustaining their efforts difficult.
15 December 2016
CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode five

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode five

In this episode, Martin Sandbu and Christian Dustmann discuss 'How should governments respond to migration fears?'
Sophia Besch, Martin Sandbu, Christian Dustmann
16 December 2016
Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap

Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap

Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.
21 December 2016
CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2016

CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2016

Charles Grant, Simon Tilford and Ian Bond review the political themes and events that shaped 2016.
May sets out plan for Brexit at Lancaster House
17 January 2017
What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?

What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?

Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.
19 January 2017
What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

Britain and the EU-27 view migration very differently. That could complicate the Brexit and free trade negotiations.
25 January 2017
What does the Supreme Court's ruling mean for British parliamentary sovereignty?

What does the Supreme Court's ruling mean for British parliamentary sovereignty?

The Supreme Court ruled that Theresa May needs to ask Parliament for its consent to notify of the UK's intention to leave the EU.
26 January 2017
May is weak in Europe but strong at home

May is weak in Europe but strong at home

The EU-27 fear domestic politics will drive Britain towards a very hard Br‎exit. But Theresa May is strong enough at home to resist such pressures, if she wishes to.
Britain's economy: Enjoy the calm before the storm

Britain's economy: Enjoy the calm before the storm

Britain's economy has not weathered the Brexit storm. But the calm before the storm has lasted longer than many economists expected.
Simon Tilford
27 January 2017
CER podcast: Rob Wainwright and Camino Mortera-Martinez on Europol and UK-EU security co-operation

CER podcast: Rob Wainwright and Camino Mortera-Martinez on Europol and UK-EU security co-operation

Camino Mortera-Martinez talks to Rob Wainwright about the work of Europol on counter-terrorism and migration, the future of his agency and the effects of Brexit on UK-EU security co-operation.
Camino Mortera-Martinez, Rob Wainwright
1 February 2017
Parliamentarians in Brexit talks: Bulls in a china shop?

Parliamentarians in Brexit talks: Bulls in a china shop?

David Davis promised that Westminster will have the same scrutiny powers in the Brexit talks as the European Parliament would. But what does that really mean?
UK white paper on Brexit
2 February 2017
6 February 2017
The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget

The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget

A stand-off between the EU and Britain over the size of its exit bill could lead to the collapse of negotiations and an abrupt, disorderly Brexit.
Alex Barker
16 February 2017
CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

Discussion on the politics and economics that underlie differing views of free movement in the UK and Europe.
20 February 2017
Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult

Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult

What will the Brexit deal look like? Which are the key decisions that Theresa May still has to make? And what should she do in order to get the best possible deal?
21 February 2017
The end of the transatlantic trade consensus?

The end of the transatlantic trade consensus?

Trump, Brexit and European scepticism about TTIP spell the end of transatlantic leadership on trade.
Rem Korteweg
23 February 2017
Trump, trade and the EU: Two wrongs don't make a right

Trump, trade and the EU: Two wrongs don't make a right

The US will not gain by resorting to protectionism. If it does so, the EU should stay calm, listen when US criticism is justified, and make its first priority the defence of the WTO process and the rule of law.
7 March 2017
CER podcast: Charles Grant on Theresa May's emerging Brexit deal

CER podcast: Charles Grant on Theresa May's emerging Brexit deal

Discussion on the process of deciding the British position in Brexit negotiations, the value of the UK’s ‘trump cards’ and why European officials are pessimistic about finding a good agreement.
17 March 2017
Berlin to the rescue? A closer look at Germany's position on Brexit

Berlin to the rescue? A closer look at Germany's position on Brexit

Brexiters hope that Berlin will adopt an accommodating stance in the forthcoming negotiations because of Germany's economic and security interests. Such hopes are misplaced.
20 March 2017
Playing defence

Playing defence

The UK’s contributions to European defence will play a role in Brexit negotiations. But both sides should keep the long-term objective of close co-operation in mind.
UK triggers Article 50
29 March 2017
30 March 2017
CER podcast: Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska on the triggering of Article 50

CER podcast: Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska on the triggering of Article 50

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to Sophia Besch about the triggering of Article 50, the tone and substance of the letter, how it was received in Brussels, and how we can expect negotiations to unfold. 
May announces snap election
18 April 2017
24 April 2017
Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal

Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal

The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.
25 April 2017
CER podcast: What UK-EU trade deal after Brexit?

CER podcast: What UK-EU trade deal after Brexit?

John Springford talks to Sophia Besch about about the best possible trade deal between the UK and the EU after Brexit. Based on new empirical research into the costs of trade barriers he argues for a ‘Swiss style’ Brexit.
3 May 2017
The British and their exceptionalism

The British and their exceptionalism

Few countries have allowed their sense of exceptionalism to damage their interests in the way Britain is doing. British overconfidence is unjustified and will come at a heavy price.
Simon Tilford
8 May 2017
How will Germany respond to Emmanuel Macron?

How will Germany respond to Emmanuel Macron?

Germany is divided on how to respond to Macron: some are wary of a new bargain to revive the Franco-German alliance, others are enthusiastic. 
9 May 2017
A prime minister unshackled

A prime minister unshackled

Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May’s massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous.
16 May 2017
Good cop, bad cop: How to keep Britain inside Europol

Good cop, bad cop: How to keep Britain inside Europol

A post-Brexit deal on Europol should be relatively easy to negotiate. The UK could retain a special status, but the British government will need to make some concessions.
18 May 2017
A flexible EU: A new beginning or the beginning of the end?

A flexible EU: A new beginning or the beginning of the end?

The EU needs to become more flexible if it is to tackle current and future challenges effectively. But it should do so transparently, and remain inclusive.
23 May 2017
CER podcast: Why the UK voted to leave, and lessons for the EU 27

CER podcast: Why the UK voted to leave, and lessons for the EU 27

CER podcast on the reasons the UK voted to leave, how these political trends played out in the French elections, and lessons for the EU 27.
John Springford, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Whiteley and Florence Faucher
7 June 2017
CER podcast: UK election primer

CER podcast: UK election primer

On the day before the UK general election, Charles Grant and Simon Tilford discuss current polls, the effect of recent attacks on voting, which issues were not sufficiently discussed in the campaigns and what would be the best possible election result for Europe.
Sophia Besch, Charles Grant, Simon Tilford
May loses majority
8 June 2017
9 June 2017
What does the election result mean for Brexit?

What does the election result mean for Brexit?

Brexit barely figured in the UK's general election, but the result means that the country might yet have an election fought explicitly on the issue.
John Springford, Simon Tilford
15 June 2017
How should the EU react to Britain's general election?

How should the EU react to Britain's general election?

The EU-27 can force Britain's politicians to acknowledge Brexit’s trade-offs, by offering the British four options from which it must choose.
Simon Tilford, John Springford
First round of UK-EU exit negotiations begin
19 June 2017
23 June 2017
Hard Brexit, soft data: How to keep Britain plugged into EU databases

Hard Brexit, soft data: How to keep Britain plugged into EU databases

Retaining full access to EU databases fighting crime and terrorism will not be easy for Britain. Any deal will require a role for the European Court of Justice and keeping EU privacy laws.
27 June 2017
Britain prepares for a softer Brexit

Britain prepares for a softer Brexit

Britain’s general election has increased the chances of a ‘softer’ Brexit. But what would a softer Brexit look like? And could it include a customs union with the EU?
5 July 2017
Brexit maze: The role of EU institutions in the negotiations

Brexit maze: The role of EU institutions in the negotiations

Theresa May will be reluctant to openly discuss the difficult choices ahead of the UK. Citizens and business should look to the EU institutions for information about their future post-Brexit.
6 July 2017
The limits to Labour's 'constructive ambiguity' over Brexit

The limits to Labour's 'constructive ambiguity' over Brexit

Labour proposes a "jobs-first" and hard Brexit at the same time. This means the party can't capitalise on the Tories' stewardship of the economy.
Simon Tilford
7 July 2017
Ulster's fight, Ulster's rights? Brexit, Northern Ireland and the threat to British-Irish relations

Ulster's fight, Ulster's rights? Brexit, Northern Ireland and the threat to British-Irish relations

Brexit risks destabilising the peace process in Northern Ireland. The EU and UK may need to agree on a special status for the Province.
Edward Burke
10 July 2017
Arrested development: Why Brexit Britain cannot keep the European Arrest Warrant

Arrested development: Why Brexit Britain cannot keep the European Arrest Warrant

The European Arrest Warrant (EAW) has made it easier for the UK to extradite criminals. But once it leaves the EU, Britain will find it almost impossible to negotiate as good an arrangement as the EAW.
17 July 2017
CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Players and process on the EU side

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Players and process on the EU side

Sophia Besch talks to Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about the role of the European Commission, the member-states, the European Parliament and the ECJ in the Brexit talks.
20 July 2017
Brexit and the threat to Northern Ireland

Brexit and the threat to Northern Ireland

A hard Brexit risks many of the gains of twenty years of peace and cross-border co-operation in Northern Ireland. Only a special EU status can stop the rot.
Edward Burke
1 August 2017
Why Brexiters should get behind Philip Hammond's transition

Why Brexiters should get behind Philip Hammond's transition

A comprehensive transition that includes continued membership of the single market and customs union is ultimately in the interest of hardliners in the British government.
30 August 2017
What the German elections mean for Brexit

What the German elections mean for Brexit

The German elections will not affect the outcome of Brexit, whatever coalition partner Angela Merkel may choose.
19 September 2017
How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?

How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?

Britain’s strongest card in the negotiations is the money that the 27 claim it owes to the EU. But the money card gives Britain a pair rather than a flush.
The EU will become less monolithic

The EU will become less monolithic

The EU is becoming less monolithic and will develop tiers of membership. This could re-energise the enlargement process and neighbourhood policy – and may allow the UK to re-engage one day.
May details Brexit stance, Florence speech
22 September 2017
25 September 2017
Brexit and energy: Time to make some hard choices

Brexit and energy: Time to make some hard choices

If Britain quits the EU’s single energy market, it will have to invest more in electricity generation, pay higher prices and accept a bigger state role in the energy sector.
Sir Philip Lowe
30 October 2017
Populism – culture or economics?

Populism – culture or economics?

Are economic factors to blame for the rise of populism, or is it a cultural backlash? The answer is a bit of both: economic weakness strengthens social conservatives' illiberal views.
John Springford, Simon Tilford
7 November 2017
Relaunching the EU

Relaunching the EU

The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.
8 November 2017
CER podcasts: Relaunching the EU

CER podcasts: Relaunching the EU

The CER has launched a major new report ‘Relaunching the EU’. In this podcast mini-series, CER researchers explain some of the reports main recommendations.
16 November 2017
Dig for Victory?

Dig for Victory?

A UK trade deal with the US will create more problems for British agriculture and food consumers than it would solve.
Christian Odendahl, Beth Oppenheim, Christopher Haskins
29 November 2017
Ten predictions for the Brexit talks

Ten predictions for the Brexit talks

Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.
1 December 2017
UK + EU = Canada+?

UK + EU = Canada+?

A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?
Joint report proposes solutions for Irish border
8 December 2017
20 December 2017
CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2017

CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2017

Charles Grant, Simon Tilford and Ian Bond review the political themes and events that shaped 2017, and take a look at some of the predictions they made last year.
15 January 2018
Conference report: How to save the EU

Conference report: How to save the EU

50 leading economists, political scientists and experts on the EU considered the forces undermining the Union, and how Europe should respond to them.
16 January 2018
Of transition and trade deals

Of transition and trade deals

The UK will not be able to replicate the EU’s free trade agreements ready for March 30th 2019. The only solution is to ask the EU for help.
22 January 2018
Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house

Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house

The UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.
24 January 2018
CER Bulletin podcast: Trade post Brexit; EU vs Poland; Trump's foreign policy

CER Bulletin podcast: Trade post Brexit; EU vs Poland; Trump's foreign policy

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month.
26 January 2018
'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?

'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?

The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.
31 January 2018
CER podcast: Brexit negotiations phase 2: The politics of regulatory alignment

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations phase 2: The politics of regulatory alignment

Charles Grant talks to Sophia Besch about how the EU-27 view the British idea of a bespoke post-Brexit partnership based on regulatory alignment. 
5 February 2018
Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas

Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas

Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".
27 February 2018
The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association?

The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association?

Some argue that a Ukraine-style association agreement offers the UK a viable model for its future relationship with the EU, combining both ‘sovereignty’ and close economic ties.
Commission publishes draft Withdrawal Agreement
28 February 2018
6 March 2018
Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy

Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy

As part of the EU, the UK has been able to leverage the resources of other member-states to support Britain’s foreign and development priorities. After Brexit, that will be harder.
7 March 2018
Theresa May's Irish trilemma

Theresa May's Irish trilemma

Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit.
13 March 2018
Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade

Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade

Without an EU-UK customs union British exporters will face a new barrier to trade: rules of origin. No amount of positive thinking and innovative solutions can eliminate this problem.
14 March 2018
CER podcast: Security after Brexit

CER podcast: Security after Brexit

Sophia Besch asks Camino Mortera-Martinez about future UK-EU justice and home affairs co-operation.
15 March 2018
Will the unity of the 27 crack?

Will the unity of the 27 crack?

Some British politicians believe that the 27 will divide during the Brexit trade negotiations, because of their differing economic interests. But disagreements between the 27 are minor, thanks to Theresa May's red lines.
UK and EU agree on money, citizens' rights
19 March 2018
22 March 2018
The member-states and the EU: Taking back control?

The member-states and the EU: Taking back control?

The irony of Brexit is that the EU is becoming more British just as the UK is leaving the EU.
British foreign policy after Brexit: Hand in hand?

British foreign policy after Brexit: Hand in hand?

British foreign policy priorities will change little after Brexit, but London will need to find new ways to rally EU support for them.
27 March 2018
Brexit and the financial services industry: The story so far

Brexit and the financial services industry: The story so far

The City will survive Brexit, but it will not emerge unscathed. In order to remain competitive Britain’s financial services industry will need to adapt, as it has always done.
Mark Boleat
28 March 2018
CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Will the unity of the 27 crack?

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Will the unity of the 27 crack?

Sophia Besch speaks to Beth Oppenheim and Sam Lowe about what to expect during the second part of Brexit negotiations – will the future relationship talks bring out different political and economic interests among the EU-27?
11 April 2018
CER Bulletin podcast: EU reform; Brexit and foreign policy; Europe and cyber security

CER Bulletin podcast: EU reform; Brexit and foreign policy; Europe and cyber security

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month. 
12 April 2018
Is Labour selling the UK a Turkey?

Is Labour selling the UK a Turkey?

A future UK-EU customs union should not be ruled out. While it would place some constraints on a future UK independent trade policy, the positives far outweigh the negatives. 
24 April 2018
The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution

The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution

With the UK leaving, the EU needs a revised budget. It should cut rebates, agriculture spending, and structural funds; and spend more on border security, education, and research.
26 April 2018
Plugging in the British: EU defence policy

Plugging in the British: EU defence policy

Both Britain and the EU would benefit from working together to keep Europe safe, even after Brexit. But economic protectionism and a desire for autonomy may get in the way.
3 May 2018
A hitchhiker's guide to Galileo and Brexit

A hitchhiker's guide to Galileo and Brexit

The debate between the UK and the EU over British participation in the EU’s space programme ‘Galileo’ shows how difficult it will be to disentangle economic and security interests during Brexit negotiations. 
8 May 2018
Theresa May's meaningless meaningful vote?

Theresa May's meaningless meaningful vote?

Though many British parliamentarians believe Brexit will harm the UK, it is unlikely that they will derail it. However, Westminster could help to mitigate its negative consequences. 
15 May 2018
UK must swallow the unpalatable Irish backstop

UK must swallow the unpalatable Irish backstop

Theresa May and the Brexiters should have the courage of their convictions and agree to a backstop that grants a special status to Northern Ireland. 
25 May 2018
Plugging in the British: EU justice and home affairs

Plugging in the British: EU justice and home affairs

Police and judicial co-operation will not be easier to negotiate than trade. To get a good deal, the UK and the EU need to move beyond their hard-line opening positions.
13 June 2018
Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

Macron thinks the EU is not viable without radical reform. His priority is to reshape the eurozone, but Germany is blocking his bolder ideas. He risks isolation in Europe, which could weaken him at home.
14 June 2018
CER Bulletin podcast: Transatlantic relationship; Brexit and financial services; UK-EU defence negotiations

CER Bulletin podcast: Transatlantic relationship; Brexit and financial services; UK-EU defence negotiations

CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month. 
20 June 2018
CER podcast: Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

CER podcast: Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

Sophia Besch asks Charles Grant about Macron's progress on his reform agenda so far.
22 June 2018
Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit

Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit

Post-Brexit internal and external security co-operation arrangements seem as hard for the EU and UK to agree on as trade. Other third countries’ relationships with the EU provide models.
23 June 2018
What's the cost of Brexit so far?

What's the cost of Brexit so far?

New analysis by the CER – which we will update quarterly – estimates that the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU.
28 June 2018
Moving on after Galileo – lessons (to be) learnt

Moving on after Galileo – lessons (to be) learnt

The EU and the UK have not been able to come to an agreement over Britain’s participation in the Galileo programme.
4 July 2018
CER podcast: Plugging in the British to EU justice and home affairs

CER podcast: Plugging in the British to EU justice and home affairs

Sophia Besch asks Camino Mortera-Martinez whether the UK will stay plugged into EU justice and home affairs structures after Brexit.
11 July 2018
Inching our way towards Jersey

Inching our way towards Jersey

The EU will probably reject Theresa May’s Chequers compromise. Rather than confronting the EU on its fundamental principles, the UK should build upon the foundations of a customs union.
CER event podcast: CER/KAS Conference on 'Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit'

CER event podcast: CER/KAS Conference on 'Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit'

Three panels of experts gathered at the CER/KAS conference, ‘Plugging in the British: Completing the Circuit’ at the Royal United Services Institute.
Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Charles Grant, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Yvette Cooper MP, Claude Moraes MEP, Peter Storr, Rosa Balfour, Simon Fraser, Paul Johnston, Nick Westcott, Felix Dane, Paul Everitt, Kori Schake, Julie Smith
13 July 2018
CER podcast: A guide to the White Paper

CER podcast: A guide to the White Paper

Beth Oppenheim asks Sam Lowe about the UK government's recent White Paper on Brexit, and whether it stands any chance of being accepted by the EU.
20 July 2018
The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.
Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.
12 September 2018
CER podcast: Another referendum?

CER podcast: Another referendum?

Sophia Besch asks Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska and Beth Oppenheim about the prospects for another Brexit referendum.
24 September 2018
After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop. 
28 September 2018
The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.
CER Bulletin podcast: Singapore-on-Thames; the Western Balkans; Italy

CER Bulletin podcast: Singapore-on-Thames; the Western Balkans; Italy

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month. 
30 September 2018
The cost of Brexit to June 2018

The cost of Brexit to June 2018

The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.
24 October 2018
CER podcast: The cost of Brexit to June 2018

CER podcast: The cost of Brexit to June 2018

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis, how he has refined his modelling method and the implications of the findings. 
5 November 2018
Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.
May and EU publish Withdrawal Agreement
14 November 2018
15 November 2018
Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.
16 November 2018
What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?

What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?

Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.
21 November 2018
CER podcast: A guide to the withdrawal agreement

CER podcast: A guide to the withdrawal agreement

Beth Oppenheim asks John Springford what is in the 585 page withdrawal agreement, and Charles Grant outlines what might happen next: will Theresa May and her withdrawal plan survive?
EU endorses Withdrawal Agreement
25 November 2018
29 November 2018
An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible

An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible

If the UK enters into a customs union with the European Union it will be able to operate an effective trade policy, but the political focus would need to shift away from headline-grabbing, comprehensive free trade agreements.
6 December 2018
Brexit and services: How deep can the UK-EU relationship go?

Brexit and services: How deep can the UK-EU relationship go?

Even if the UK entered into an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, leaving the single market would mean new restrictions on British services exports.
May announces date for vote on Brexit deal
17 December 2018
16 January 2019
After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May's options?

After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May's options?

Theresa May can only win a parliamentary majority for her withdrawal agreement by agreeing to negotiate a softer relationship with the EU.
27 January 2019
The cost of Brexit to September 2018

The cost of Brexit to September 2018

The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union.
6 February 2019
Can the UK extend the Brexit deadline?

Can the UK extend the Brexit deadline?

It is becoming increasingly likely that the UK will have to request extension of the Article 50 deadline. But a longer extension might mean that the UK would have to hold European Parliament elections.
May loses meaningful vote
15 February 2019
4 March 2019
CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

Beth Oppenheim asks Charles Grant to weigh up the possible Brexit scenarios: will Theresa May's deal make it through parliament, or will the UK end up with no deal, a general election, or a referendum?
13 March 2019
Europe without the UK: Liberated or diminished?

Europe without the UK: Liberated or diminished?

In 2016 the CER made ten predictions about the effect of Brexit on future EU policy. How do they stand up now, on the eve of the UK’s departure?
22 March 2019
Dreaming of life after Brexit

Dreaming of life after Brexit

The British public is growing tired of Brexit. But assuming something that looks like the withdrawal agreement is signed off, what comes next?  
Brexit day I
May loses 2nd meaningful vote
29 March 2019
30 March 2019
The cost of Brexit to December 2018: Towards relative decline?

The cost of Brexit to December 2018: Towards relative decline?

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion – or £145 million a week.
Indicative votes - no majority for any proposals
1 April 2019
May asks for extension to 30 June 2019
5 April 2019
At emergency EU summit, Brexit extension agreed until 31 October 2019
10 April 2019
12 April 2019
Not so fast! Westminster's (continuous) oversight of European affairs post-Brexit

Not so fast! Westminster's (continuous) oversight of European affairs post-Brexit

The UK will not be able to make a clean break from the EU and its laws post-Brexit. Westminster should develop new scrutiny structures which would enable parliamentarians to better navigate yet unknown post-Brexit reality.
14 May 2019
The Brussels view of Brexit

The Brussels view of Brexit

The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them, and they do not believe that Britain’s politicians are capable of getting their act together and resolving the problem.
European elections
23 May 2019
May announces resignation
24 May 2019
29 May 2019
Northern Ireland and the backstop: Why 'alternative arrangements' aren't an alternative

Northern Ireland and the backstop: Why 'alternative arrangements' aren't an alternative

Technical fixes for the Irish border will only work if created in conjunction with affected communities and businesses.
5 June 2019
CER podcast: What is a customs union?

CER podcast: What is a customs union?

Sophia Besch asks Sam Lowe to explain what a customs union is. Sam argues that a customs union is still compatible with an effective UK trade policy.
27 June 2019
Now is the worst time for 'global Britain'

Now is the worst time for 'global Britain'

Global trade integration has stalled since the financial crisis, and is unlikely to pick up steam any time soon. In that context, plans for ‘global Britain’ will do little to offset the costs of Brexit.
22 July 2019
Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect

Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect

There are no compromises on the backstop acceptable to the EU or a Johnson-led government. A general election fought by the Conservatives on a no deal ticket is therefore very likely.
Boris Johnson becomes new PM
24 July 2019
1 August 2019
No-deal Brexit means trouble for Brits living in the EU

No-deal Brexit means trouble for Brits living in the EU

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, Brits living in EU countries will face a number of hurdles to securing residence. And some will be worse off than others. 
What next for the EU's capital markets union?

What next for the EU's capital markets union?

Europe needs deep and liquid capital markets. The best way to ensure that is to open up to global capital markets, including London. 
Jonathan Faull, Simon Gleeson
12 August 2019
A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable

A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable

A majority of MPs want to avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. But if Boris Johnson is determined to leave the EU without a deal, MPs will struggle to stop him.
Proroguing of Parliament
28 August 2019
3 September 2019
How would negotiations after a no-deal Brexit play out?

How would negotiations after a no-deal Brexit play out?

After no deal, the EU would demand that the UK sign up to the provisions of the withdrawal agreement, but in exchange for an emergency deal that is far worse than the standstill transition.
11 September 2019
CER podcast: Negotiations after no-deal Brexit

CER podcast: Negotiations after no-deal Brexit

John Springford deciphers what has been happening in Westminster over the past week, and talks to Beth Oppenheim about what this means for the chances of a no-deal Brexit.
20 September 2019
Deal or no deal? Five questions on Boris Johnson's Brexit talks

Deal or no deal? Five questions on Boris Johnson's Brexit talks

The rough shape of a deal between the UK and the EU is emerging: Northern Ireland would follow EU rules in some areas but not others. Yet the two sides remain far apart.
Supreme Court rules prorogation unlawful
24 September 2019
Johnson proposes alternative to the backstop
2 October 2019
16 October 2019
The cost of Brexit to June 2019

The cost of Brexit to June 2019

The UK economy is 2.9 per cent smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the European Union, according to our latest estimate of the cost of Brexit to the end of the second quarter of 2019.
Johnson agrees new Withdrawal Agreement with EU
17 October 2019
Parliament votes for more time to scrutinise agreement
19 October 2019
23 October 2019
CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

Charles Grant and Beth Oppenheim discuss what will happen next with the Brexit process, as well as what the future UK-EU relationship could look like.
EU agrees extensions to 31 January 2020
28 October 2019
UK general election called for 12 December 2019
29 October 2019
Brexit day II
31 October 2019
5 November 2019
What a Boris Johnson EU-UK free trade agreement means for business

What a Boris Johnson EU-UK free trade agreement means for business

Johnson's EU-UK free trade agreement would increase friction and costs of trading with the EU. Many businesses would find adapting to a new FTA just as troublesome as if the UK had crashed out without a deal. 
Brexit day III
31 January 2020
End of transition period
31 December 2020