Research

« Le processus parlementaire forcera le gouvernement à donner plus d'éléments sur les conséquences du Brexit », prédit Agata Gostynska, du think tank proeuropéen Centre for European Reform.
 

Mr Schulz plans to focus on social justice and equality, according to Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER). “He’s going to have to prove himself over the next couple of months. He is an unknown quantity in German domestic politics,” she said. Ms Besch said that Mr Schulz could revitalise the party because he is a “relatively new face” but he may have trouble appealing to its core supporters.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, said the transition deal could last from three to five years, rather than the two years touted by prime minister Theresa May, and that it would be conducted on the EU’s terms.“We have virtually no cards to play,” he said. “They know the business community is so desperate for a transition that we have to take a transition on the EU’s terms.”

As the Centre for European Reform's John Springford pointed out in an interesting Twitter thread, however, Britain’s trade with the US amounts to about a third of that with the EU (while Australia represents a great deal less).

There is still an outside chance that Parliament will reassert control of Brexit talks, said Simon Tilford, a Britain and Europe specialist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "What this does is it opens the way for much greater parliamentary scrutiny of the whole process," he said. "But we’re only going to get this if the Labour Party is willing to push back. That is not likely, but not impossible."

"This is difficult to predict at the moment. But going by current polls, a coalition that does not include the PVV will need to have, at least, five parties. There could be a centrist coalition including VVD, D66, CDA, PvdA and a smaller party. Or a center-right coalition: VVD, D66, CDA, 50Plus and a smaller Christian party," Rem Korteweg, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Sputnik, adding that any coalition formed after the election could be quite unstable and the Dutch may be asked to go to the ballot box again soon.

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said that parts of the EU were worried that Mrs May was being deeply unrealistic and that - like David Cameron's bold promises to reform Europe during his Bloomberg speech of January 2013, was setting herself up to fail.

As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform notes, this is a hollow threat. If she tries to turn the UK into a low-regulation Singapore undercutting the EU, the prime minister will upturn the one set of positive changes she pledges for Britain after Brexit: robust workers’ rights and – perish the word – a European industrial strategy.

Men selv det sidste er ikke entydigt, mener seniorforsker Sophia Besch fra den proeuropæiske tænketank Centre for European Reform (Centre for European Reform) i London. ”Briterne har sagt helt klart, at de ikke længere vil følge EU-Domstolen, og at de vil hente kontrollen tilbage til Storbritannien,” siger hun. Mens Theresa May er klar i mælet, når det gælder, hvad briterne ikke vil, efterlyser Sophia Besch meldinger om, hvad briterne er klar til give. ”Briterne er nødt til at give køb på noget, men hun har ikke løftet sløret og holder kortene meget tæt til kroppen,” mener Sophia Besch.