Research

"Wystąpienie May potwierdziło wiele oczekiwań ekspertów, ale europejscy partnerzy docenią, że brytyjski rząd wreszcie przedstawił zarys swojego planu" - oceniła w rozmowie z PAP analityczka z londyńskiego think tanku Centre for European Reform (CER) Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said: "These comments reinforce the view that transatlantic relations are heading for their rockiest period since world war two. His views on Israel, Iran, climate etc are bound to create a chasm across the Atlantic and the UK will be left trying to straddle the divide — and perhaps falling in."

Unless there is a Le Pen victory, the EU is unlikely to lose more members, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank. But Mr. Grant said doubts about the euro could revive if Italy holds elections as some expect and voters back the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement, which wants a referendum on the common currency. Impediments to the 5 Star Movement’s ability to win on a national level include its refusal to form coalitions with more-established parties. “The chances that the euro will face an existential crisis about Italy are small but not zero,” Mr. Grant said.

“There’s no doubt that economic activity has held up better than most economists thought,” Simon Tilford, of the pro-EU Centre for European Reform think-tank, conceded. Mr Tilford notes that not all pro-EU economists missed the mark, and - like many - remains convinced that the Brexit pain will eventually arrive. But he worries that the smooth sailing in the meantime could create a false sense of confidence and shift public support toward a more extreme form of EU exit.“The fact that growth has held up over the last six months is a negative because it’s emboldened the Eurosceptics and those who think that the UK can flourish outside the single market,” he explained.

“Even after Brexit, the EU and the UK will have a mutual interest in close defense and security relations,” Sophia Besch, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said in a note. “While it would make sense for Europeans to co-ordinate their response to Brexit and the Trump presidency in defense matters, unity is by no means predetermined.”

"Hvis det bliver med Fillon som modkandidat i anden runde, så har Le Pen faktisk en chance, fordi de mere venstreorienterede vælgere ikke kan lide Fillon, og derfor måske bliver hjemme eller ligefrem stemmer på Le Pen. Det kan ikke længere udelukkes, og Le Pen som præsident vil være en tidsindstillet bombe under EU," siger Rem Korteweg, som er seniorforsker ved tænketanken Centre for European Reform, der arbejder for et reformeret og styrket EU.

“It seems No 10 is overcompensating for the perceived errors Cameron made by depending too much on his close ties with Merkel,” said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform.