Eurointelligence newsbriefing

15 December 2016
Sophia Besch has an excellent analysis on the state of European defence and foreign policy coordination. Besch writes that the Europeans are underestimating the potential impact of Donald Trump, who has severely damaged the EU’s security by questioning Nato's security guarantee. And with Brexit the EU will lose one of its strongest European militaries, as well as a country in favour of more competition in defence procurement.

EU leaders hoping 2017 will offer respite should look away now

15 December 2016
“2016 has been a shock with Brexit, Trump, the Turkish coup and terrorist attacks,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a Brussels-based research fellow of the Centre for European Reform. “But 2017 will be the year when we start seeing what these shocks mean for Europe and the world.”

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode five

Sophia Besch, Martin Sandbu, Christian Dustmann
15 December 2016
In this episode, Martin Sandbu and Christian Dustmann discuss 'How should governments respond to migration fears?'

Who benefits? Not Britain

14 December 2016
Financial Times
The Brexit vote did not have much to do with globalisation, argued economists attending a conference at the Centre for European Reform. Fascinating summary here. "The participants largely agreed that globalisation had not been the driving force behind the Brexit vote. Rising inequality and economic insecurity had been factors, but reflected the deregulation of labour and financial markets, technological change and tax and housing policies, more than globalisation itself."

Judy Asks: Is the EU's architecture collapsing?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
14 December 2016
Carnegie Europe
A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

European anxiety deepens over 'disruptive' Trump presidency

13 December 2016
"The Europeans are in a state of shock," said Charles Grant, director of the CER, who was in Washington last week with Perthes to discuss a Trump presidency with US officials."If Trump were to support Marine Le Pen like he supported Farage that would be a revolutionary event in transatlantic relations".

Can we withdraw Article 50 once we trigger it? Probably (but it's complicated)

12 December 2016
Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, emphasises that the debate is not purely legal, it is "a combination of politics and the law". So while the article in itself is probably revocable, "the Supreme Court interpretation is likely to be that Article 50 is non-revocable, and therefore any case for revocability is going to be a lot harder to make".

The way forward for the west? Help China and wave the rulebook at Russia

08 December 2016
The Guardian
Russia and China are often bracketed together as the west’s most important adversaries. They have grown closer since Russia’s relations with the west soured after the annexation of Crimea.

Britain is heading for the hardest of hard Brexits, but Theresa May can limit the damage

08 December 2016
The Guardian
Theresa May's government is heading for the hardest of hard Brexits. That's what many European officials now believe.

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode four

Christian Odendahl, Marcel Fratzscher, Ryan Avent
07 December 2016
In this episode, Marcel Fratzscher and Ryan Avent discuss ‘Is inequality behind the rise in populism?’

Who is Pier Carlo Padoan? Could the technocrat replace Renzi after his referendum defeat?

07 December 2016
The Express
Luigi Scazzieri, a fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said that the President Sergio Mattarella will explore options for a new Government “based on the current composition of the Parliament”. 

EurActiv event: #Brexit50 ranking unveiled in Westminster

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
06 December 2016
The EurActiv event revealed the 50 most influential people shaping Brexit – the EurActiv #Brexit50 list. CER director Charles Grant was ranked number 45 on the #Brexit 50 list.

5 News: Interview with Luigi Scazzieri on the Italian referendum (1:12)

06 December 2016
The Prime Minister's plans to reform the country's constitution was heavily defeated in a referendum. It could cause yet more turmoil for the EU - but the result has left many Italians overjoyed.

TOK FM: W Sądzie Najwyższym rozpoczęła się rozprawa ws. Brexitu

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
06 December 2016
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to TOK FM about the ongoing Brexit case in the Supreme Court. 

It's productivity, stupid…

06 December 2016
The Irish News
In September, Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform presented a sobering analysis of the UK's economic performance - “Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?” Contrary to popular belief, the UK has not been one of Europe's economic stars over the last 15 years. Adjusting for living costs, exchange rates and demographic trends, the UK in 2015 is now poorer relative to the EU-15 (eurozone) than it was in 2000.

Italy's political upheaval stokes banking crisis

06 December 2016
Voice of America
Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform says there is hope that investors will not be put off. “In the immediate term they might find it slightly more difficult to raise capital, which they need to cover their bad loans,” Scazzieri said. “However, nothing has really changed in the banking situation since the situation previous to the referendum.”

The future of the EU is at stake as Europe's leaders face a new fear: Voters

06 December 2016
The Washington Post
If elected, Le Pen has vowed to hold a referendum on French membership in the E.U. And if France pulls out, many pro-European advocates believe the entire project would fall apart. “If Marine Le Pen wins, that will comprise an existential shock to the E.U. and for stability in Europe,” said Simon Tilford, the deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform.

Italian referendum: What the defeat of Renzi means for the EU and eurozone

05 December 2016
The Daily Express
Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform (CER), said that an Italian referendum on the eurozone would lead to considerable instability in Europe. Mr Tilford said: “The act of calling that referendum would precipitate a crisis in Europe. It would embolden populist and anti-Europe parties elsewhere.”  

The impact of Italy's "No" vote is likely to be contained

05 December 2016
The "No" vote in yesterday's referendum was expected by most observers. But its consequences are likely to be less dramatic than many feared.

Italy's referendum result is not another Brexit or Trump

05 December 2016
The Guardian
First Britain voted for Brexit. Then America voted for Trump. And now Italians have overwhelmingly voted to reject constitutional reform.