Research

A report from the Centre for European Reform (CER) found that — thanks to lower tax revenues — the knock-on hit of the vote to leave the EU to public finances has been £23 billion per year. The findings comprehensively refute Prime Minister Theresa May's recent claim that she would boost NHS funding significantly with a "Brexit dividend" when Britain stops paying into the EU's budget. 

"It's been one of the biggest crises that the European Union has faced in a decade where there have been several crises in a row," John Springford, deputy Director of the Centre for European Reform, tells CBS News. The European Union is a borderless travel zone, meaning that once someone enters, he or she is able to move between EU countries freely. This "freedom of movement" allows citizens of EU member states to live and work in any EU country they please, but it also means once migrants cross over the bloc's external border, they are relatively free to move anywhere within the Eurozone.

As Charles Grant at the Centre for European Reform has written, this big ask from her pro-Brexit colleagues will not necessarily be followed by an open-armed welcome from the EU27.

“For now, the odd couple of Mr Johnson and Mr Barnier is working to keep Britain out of the single market for goods. But a fightback may be approaching in both Britain and other EU countries from those who are prepared to compromise on legal principles and wish to maximise future trade.” (Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, in the FT).

The challenges facing Britain on justice and home affairs have been comprehensively set out in a paper by Camino Mortera-Martinez, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. She says that there are three broad areas where Britain wants things to stay the same. These are: access to EU law enforcement databases, EU measures to support practical law enforcement co-operation such as the European Arrest Warrant, and co-operation through EU agencies such as Europol and Eurojust.

Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the CER think-tank, said Merkel has become more isolated on the European stage but her patience and experience could ensure her political survival. “She is fighting various fires in Europe. She has the Dutch and the northern and Scandinavian countries on her side, but she is certainly not strong enough to be called the undisputed leader of Europe as she might have been," Besch added. “She’s great at surviving these things, in part because of her calm approach, which is in stark contrast to the posturing in the CSU and the ‘Merkel must go’ faction of the CDU."