Press

The end of free movement led to a shortfall of 330,000 workers, contributing to a severe labour shortage, particularly in sectors such as retail and hospitality, according to a new study by the Centre for European Reform. That is fuelling inflationary pressures. Investment has flatlined since the 2016 referendum.

Det er en udlægning, som den britiske sikkerhedsekspert Ian Bond er enig i. Han er tidligere topdiplomat og nu direktør ved tænketanken Centre for European Reform. »Når Erdogan kan vise, at han er hård mod de kurdiskforsvarende skandinaver med deres foragtelige liberale ideer om ytringsfrihed og alt det der, så appellerer det til hans nationalistiske vælgere«, siger han. »Og den her ekstremt tåbelige og provokerende afbrænding af en koran her i weekenden betyder, at Erdogan kan vise sine islamiske støtter, at han forsvarer islam ved at stoppe de gudløse skandinavers forsøg på at komme ind i Nato«, fortsætter sikkerhedseksperten.

Migration was quite a big deal, Brexit-wise, but six years on, and two after the end of free movement, what has been the impact? The level of net migration certainly hasn’t fallen, but a new report from Jonathan Portes and John Springford argues that if you focus on workers, the end of freedom of movement has left about 330,000 fewer in Britain (460,000 fewer Europeans, but 130,000 more from elsewhere). That’s a reduction of roughly 1% of the labour force, prompting many to say that a lack of migration drove recent economy-wide labour shortages.

“I think this [Qatargate] will make it less likely for von der Leyen to co-operate with the Parliament,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the think-tank the Centre for European Reform. She said the Commission president is riding high after weathering a pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine.

This week Jonathan Portes and John Springford published a joint paper for the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform that assessed the shortfall in the UK labour market caused by Brexit. The number they came up with was 330,000 — about 1 per cent of the total UK workforce — but the shortfalls for workers from the EU landed more heavily on the lower-wage sectors that relied previously on flexible EU labour, like logistics (128,000 or 8 per cent of the sectoral workforce); hotels and restaurants (67,000 or 4 per cent), shops (103,000 or 3 per cent), building sites (46,000 or 2 per cent).

John Springford’s latest work for the Centre for European Reform puts the figure at 5.5%. He uses a “doppelganger” economic model that compares the UK’s economic performance to a group of countries that have performed similarly in the past. The paths of the UK and its “twin” separate in 2016 and the gap between the two is now 5.5%. In short, if we had stayed in the EU we would be much better off than we are now.

Brexit is behind a labour shortfall in the UK according to new research, leaving the country with 330,000 fewer people in the workforce. A joint report from think-tanks the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe looked into this stat to find out how many people chose not to work in the UK because of Brexit.