Press

Searching for silver in Greece's storm clouds

29 April 2010
Reuters
As Hugo Brady, an analyst with the Centre for European Reform, said this week: "The EU tried for 10 years on the basis of peer review to make structural changes to the EU economy and no one really listened… Now that simple message might get through."

EU fumbling leaves eurozone seeking credibility

28 April 2010
Reuters
"The problem here is the recurring inability in the European project to say brutal truths honestly and clearly and act on them in a realistic manner," said Hugo Brady, a senior research fellow at the CER. "The markets aren't stupid. They aren't going to be fooled by elaborate peacocking displays. They can see when reactions are credible and when they are not. Anyone could see Greece was going to need bailing out in a matter of weeks, and so that dancing around just made it worse...

A bad deal for Ukraine and Yanukovich

Tomas Valasek
27 April 2010
Financial Times
The new Ukrainian president has got off to a bad start in foreign policy terms. Last week, Viktor Yanukovich signed a lease agreement with Moscow that will allow the Russian Black Sea Fleet to stay in Ukraine for at least another 32 years.

Greece's rescue package: Will the bailout work?

Philip Whyte
26 April 2010
Time
"A default of some sort — or debt restructuring — is highly likely and people holding government bonds will have to agree to a haircut," says Philip Whyte, senior research fellow at the CER. "But given the alternative, that would not be the worst possible outcome, which would be for Greece to leave the eurozone, and for Greece's problems to spread to other vulnerable countries, like Spain and Portugal."

Competition heats up over EU Southern gas corridor

Katinka Barysch
26 April 2010
EurActiv
"South Stream looks expensive, technologically complicated and unnecessary. Nabucco appears relatively realistic and it is further advanced in the planning process. The EU should call the Russians' bluff by asking Gazprom to use Nabucco to ship gas into South and Central Europe," wrote Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the CER, recently.

Le G20 a manqué une chance de réformer la finance

Katinka Barysch
24 April 2010
La Tribune
Vendredi après-midi, ministres des Finances et banquiers centraux des pays riches et émergents du G20 se sont réunis à Washington pour discuter des projets de régulation du secteur financier.

Entertaining British debate 'raises the chances' of minority government

Clara Marina O'Donnell
22 April 2010
The Gazette
Clara O'Donnell, an analyst for the London-based Centre for European Reform, said there was no clear winner — "but I think Gordon Brown lost it."

US urged to remove tactical nukes in Europe

Tomas Valasek
22 April 2010
Global Security Newswire
The Centre for European Reform's Tomas Valasek said that some NATO members in Central Europe could see the removal of the US gravity bombs as "a unilateral step taken by their big Western allies that puts Russia's concerns ahead of theirs ... so it will be a divisive question."

NATO to debate future of nuclear arms in Europe

Tomas Valasek
22 April 2010
Reuters
Tomas Valasek of the Centre for European Reform think tank said tactical nuclear weapons had little military rationale, especially as their readiness had been so reduced they would take months to deploy. …"Some Central European countries would view a withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons as a unilateral step taken by their big Western allies that puts Russia's concerns ahead of theirs ...

Candid British politician faces tougher scrutiny in next debate

Clara Marina O'Donnell
21 April 2010
The Vancouver Sun
"He has to keep the momentum from the last debate, but it's going to be a real challenge for him because he'll be under so much scrutiny," said Clara O'Donnell, an analyst for the London-based Centre for European Reform.

EU keeps eye on US financial regulation bill

Philip Whyte
21 April 2010
Associated Press
"France and Germany's stance is to extend regulation in previously unregulated entities," said Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform in London. "The US and UK priority is to make sure we revise the way banks are regulated."

Greece faces tight timeline before May debt crunch

21 April 2010
Reuters
"Have you seen the pick-up in the spread over the last few days?" said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "There's a real problem there. I think they'll get the money (if they go to the market), but at these interest rates, that's ruinous."

The smile on the face of the crocodile

21 April 2010
Mail Online
Today Hugo Brady, one of the senior researchers at the Centre for European Reform, a wildly pro-EU think tank in Brussels, put out a fantasy history 'published in 2070' of what a 2010 coalition government of Cameron-Clegg meant for Europe… Brady goes on with fantasies of closer British-French ties on defence and common rules across the EU on corporate taxation, then a new treaty to establish a centrally-managed euro zone treasure fund equal to 3 percent of EU GDP - and on it goes, though the list of all the powers of which eurocrats dream.

Continued eruptions from Icelandic volcano would mean higher prices, devastated tourism

20 April 2010
Washington Examiner
Simon Tilford, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, put such breakdowns in the category of "inconveniences" rather than "an existential threat," even under the worst-case scenario. "There's no doubt it would be very disruptive if it went on for that long. But I don't believe, unless it was a complete blanket on civilian air travel, that the impact on the economy will be that grave." he said. "Europe is not a particularly trade-dependent economy," said Tilford.

Europe looking into fallout from volcanic eruption

19 April 2010
Voice of America
Chief economist Simon Tilford, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, says insurance and air freight companies, along with delivery companies like United Parcel Service are also taking a hit. "Some of the most vulnerable people are actually some of the poorest. So, if we look at the exporters of produce, much of which is flown from East Africa to Europe and the US - they are going to be hit very, very hard," Tilford said.

Erdogan must raise his game on Cyprus

Katinka Barysch
19 April 2010
The Guardian
Democratisation and reform are badly needed but Erdogan is going about it the wrong way, said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. "A changing Turkey needs a new system of checks and balances … Nevertheless, the system that now seems to be emerging is flawed," she wrote. Erdogan's reforms "smack of political manoeuvring and could discredit the process of constitutional renewal" while the established opposition parties "lack a vision for a modern, dynamic Turkey".

Turkey and Europe: A shifting access

Katinka Barysch
14 April 2010
Open democracy
The EU accession process could yet be the strongest bond that Turkey has to the west. But Ankara's other links in that direction seem to be slackening.

Trichet's voice is drowned out in rescue effort

Philip Whyte
13 April 2010
The Wall Street Journal
"The problem now is he's in charge of an institution which is supposed to be the guardian of the euro, but a lot of the decisions that are going to affect the future of the single currency are out of his hands," says Philip Whyte, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European think tank based in London.

Euro zone aid for Greece is only short-term solution

12 April 2010
Reuters
"This is not a defining moment for the euro zone. What is concerning is that at every stage in recent weeks the EU has been resisting the inevitable and has been forced into action by financial markets," said Simon Tilford, an economic analyst at the London based Centre for European Reform think tank. "The immediate danger is averted but very little has been done to address longer-term problems. This is not a blueprint for additional crises. It might work for another small country like Portugal but not a big country like Italy or Spain."

Euro zone aid package shores up Greece, for now

12 April 2010
Radio Free Europe
Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London based Centre for European Reform, says the effect of the package may be limited to merely delaying Greek insolvency. "It doesn't address the fundamental concerns, it doesn't address the causes of the underlying problems within the euro zone, but it certainly addresses the immediate threat of insolvency in Greece," he says.