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"Weder Politik noch Unternehmen fahren gerne im Nebel", meint Christian Odendahl, Chefvolkswirt der Denkfabrik Centre for European Reform in Berlin, die nicht an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose beteiligt ist. "Mit solchen Prognosen wird versucht, zumindest eine grobe Abschätzung über die wirtschaftliche Zukunft vorzunehmen." Eine Prognose unabhängig erstellen zu lassen, sei vernünftig, damit die Politik sich die Zukunft nicht "schönrechnen" könne.

Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, says the leaders are split, with France’s Emmanuel Macron inclined to be tougher on Mrs May than Germany’s Angela Merkel. Mr Grant adds that EU leaders will insist that, if Britain is still a member after May 22nd, which is likely even if Mrs May and Mr Corbyn miraculously compromise in the next few days, it must take part in the European Parliament elections due on May 23rd-26th.

“The transatlantic relationship is changing: it’s a transition that started before Trump’s presidency and will continue after,” says Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “His approach that the US gains nothing from alliances is something that is specific to him. But the shift of interest to Asia and a general reluctance to get involved militarily because of the experience of forever wars has shaped the thinking of the next generation of American leaders.”

Ian Bond, a foreign policy director at the Centre for European Reform, said: “Zelenskiy has no experience in any description in politics rather than on screen,” he said, referencing to the TV series, Servant of the People, where Zelenskiy plays the president of Ukraine. “The big concern is that he may turn out to be just a front for Kolomoisky and Kolomoisky does not have a good reputation.”

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, is confident that if the crunch comes EU member-states will strike bilateral side-deals with the UK to cushion the blow. “For now the Commission is taking a strong line, but EU member-states will have to look after their own interests”, he predicts.

At the weekend the Centre for European Reform released calculations suggesting Britain’s economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if voters had chosen to stay in the EU in 2016, resulting in an extra £19bn of government borrowing a year.

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the European Union, with a knock-on effect to public finances of £360 million (Dh1.7 billion) a week, according to the Centre for European Reform.The cost exceeds the false assertion by the "leave" campaign in the run-up to the Brexit referendum in 2016 that being a member of the EU costs the country £350m a week to support the National Health Service – the government agency providing healthcare services in the UK.

Christian Odendahl, jefe economista del Centre for European Reform, explicó a este diario que “la UE, y con seguridad Alemania, se asegurarán de evitar una salida brutal, aunque forzarán al Reino Unido a participar en las elecciones europeas”.Todos los gobiernos europeos prefieren la salida acordada, pero la incertidumbre y la impaciencia van endureciendo las posturas. Francia lidera esa línea más dura.