Research & Press

What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?

16 November 2018
Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.

Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

15 November 2018
Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.

Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

05 November 2018
The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.

Is Trump right to nuke the INF Treaty?

02 November 2018
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is a cornerstone of European stability. The US should challenge Russian treaty violations, but not abandon the treaty without a better plan.

Protecting European networks: What can NATO do?

31 October 2018
With the 'cyber defence pledge' NATO is trying to get its allies to do more to protect their networks. The alliance should lead by example.

One year since Macron's Sorbonne speech: Plus ça change?

25 October 2018
In September 2017, newly-elected French President Macron laid out his grand vision for relaunching the EU. He has not achieved much so far, but Macron remains the greatest hope for driving much-needed reforms.

Premature elections won't stabilise Libya

10 October 2018
The push for elections in Libya risks deepening the country’s divisions. Europe should agree on a common position, and work towards a settlement acceptable to key Libyan and regional players.

The cost of Brexit to June 2018

30 September 2018
The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.

Moving Balkan borders: Peace plan or Pandora's box?

28 September 2018
Moving borders in the Western Balkans is risky, but might occasionally be the best option. The EU should not block a Serbia/Kosovo deal, but should work on risk mitigation.

Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation

28 September 2018
Four months after being sworn in, Italy’s League-Five Star coalition government has set a more confrontational tone in its relations with the European Union.

The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

28 September 2018
At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.

After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

24 September 2018
Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop. 

Europe should keep Turkey close

27 July 2018
EU-Turkey relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years, and even maintaining transactional co-operation could become increasingly difficult. The challenge for Europe is how to prevent relations from souring further. 

The accidental prime minister: What Spain's new government means for the EU

26 July 2018
Spain’s new government might not last long. But it could act as a catalyst for progress on the thorny issues of migration, eurozone reform and Catalonia.

Regime change? The European economy to 2030

20 July 2018
The crises of the 1970s led to the single currency and a deeply integrated single market. What economic regime will the EU need to build after the crises of the last decade?

The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

20 July 2018
The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.

Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

20 July 2018
The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.

Time to let the rule of law in Poland have its day in court

19 July 2018
Poland’s government has not reversed its controversial judicial reforms, despite EU political pressure. It is time to take the dispute out of the hands of politicians and allow the European Court of Justice to have a say about the rule of law in Poland.