Research

One step closer to a rupture: Europe, the US and Turkey

17 October 2019
Turkey’s relations with the EU and US are in freefall after its new offensive in northern Syria. The EU should do what it can to avoid a broader rupture between Ankara and the West.

The cost of Brexit to June 2019

16 October 2019
The UK economy is 2.9 per cent smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the European Union, according to our latest estimate of the cost of Brexit to the end of the second quarter of 2019.

Four questions on the Polish parliamentary elections

10 October 2019
The Polish Law and Justice party will probably remain the largest political block after Sunday’s general elections. If it secures a parliamentary majority it will carry on its illiberal reforms. 

Can Josep Borrell get EU foreign policy off the ground?

30 September 2019
The EU’s new foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, may struggle to co-ordinate the Union’s external activities in the face of rival European commissioners and unruly member-states. 

Christine Lagarde must get ready to fight on two fronts

30 September 2019
As Christine Lagarde takes over the presidency of the ECB, she has little room to ease monetary policy. She will need to convince northern European fiscal policy-makers to help.

Choppy waters ahead for EU trade policy

30 September 2019
The strategic case for new EU free trade agreements is strong. But delivering them requires accommodating the European Parliament and winning over an inwardly focused agriculture lobby.

Should the EU tax imported CO2?

24 September 2019
An EU carbon border tax would be tricky to design, costly to implement and sure to provoke legal challenges. But if done properly there are reasons to think it could succeed. 

Moving back the finishing line: The EU's progress on climate

Noah Gordon
23 September 2019
European leaders’ aim to go carbon neutral by 2050 will not happen without much tougher emissions curbs by 2030, and a sizeable increase in research and development funding.

Deal or no deal? Five questions on Boris Johnson's Brexit talks

20 September 2019
The rough shape of a deal between the UK and the EU is emerging: Northern Ireland would follow EU rules in some areas but not others. Yet the two sides remain far apart.

Up in arms: Warring over Europe's arms export regime

10 September 2019
The European Union's poorly co-ordinated arms export policy is undermining Europe's foreign policy, credibility as a principled power and defence industry. The EU should take steps to move towards convergence.

The EU should seize the chance to stop Italy's eurosceptic drift

05 September 2019
Italy’s new coalition government between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party is good news for Europe. But a resurgence of the League is likely unless Europe helps Italy in a visible manner. 

How would negotiations after a no-deal Brexit play out?

03 September 2019
After no deal, the EU would demand that the UK sign up to the provisions of the withdrawal agreement, but in exchange for an emergency deal that is far worse than the standstill transition.

A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable

12 August 2019
A majority of MPs want to avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. But if Boris Johnson is determined to leave the EU without a deal, MPs will struggle to stop him.

No-deal Brexit means trouble for Brits living in the EU

01 August 2019
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, Brits living in EU countries will face a number of hurdles to securing residence. And some will be worse off than others. 

Von der Leyen's bumpy road to becoming Commission president

01 August 2019
The European Parliament has narrowly elected Ursula von der Leyen as the first female Commission president. Now she faces the difficult task of assembling a team of commissioners to deliver her priorities.

What next for the EU's capital markets union?

Jonathan Faull, Simon Gleeson
01 August 2019
Europe needs deep and liquid capital markets. The best way to ensure that is to open up to global capital markets, including London. 

Will the 'Servant of the People' be the master of Ukraine?

31 July 2019
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, now has a parliamentary majority behind him. The West can help to ensure he uses it to enact much-needed reforms.
Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect

Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect

22 July 2019
There are no compromises on the backstop acceptable to the EU or a Johnson-led government. A general election fought by the Conservatives on a no deal ticket is therefore very likely.

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