Research

Is the US or Europe more resilient to COVID-19?

John Springford, Simon Tilford
04 August 2020
COVID-19 has exposed the lack of risk-sharing between US citizens. But Europeans should not be complacent: a permanent and more automatic fiscal union may be needed to secure 'the European way of life'.

Will Germany rethink defence, too?

27 July 2020
COVID-19 has forced Germany to rethink its economic orthodoxy. A similar rethink of its defence and security outlook will take time. 

What future for a 'geopolitical' Europe?

27 July 2020
Ursula von der Leyen wants her Commission to be ‘geopolitical’. COVID-19 is likely to make this harder, while also underlining its importance.

To V or not to V

27 July 2020
The debate over the shape of the economic recovery continues. But recent medical advances should tilt governments towards continued support for workers and companies, because the pandemic may be over sooner than they had feared.

Turkey and the UK: New best friends?

24 July 2020
Turkey and the UK want to maintain a close relationship after the Brexit transition ends. But concluding a trade deal will not be easy, and relations could sour if tensions increase between Turkey and the EU or US.  

EU efforts to level the playing field are not risk-free

16 July 2020
The EU believes other countries are taking advantage of its relative economic openness. However, unilateral action to level the playing field risks provoking retaliation and the EU will need to tread carefully.

Rethinking the EU's approach towards its southern neighbours

10 July 2020
COVID-19 will exacerbate the failures of EU policy towards its southern neighbours. Europe needs to rethink its approach, taking on more responsibility for security and making its neighbours a more ambitious offer.

Something is stirring in Belarus

07 July 2020
As Belarus’s presidential election approaches on August 9th, opposition to Alyaksandr Lukashenka is growing. The EU needs a strategy for the country.

Trump sounds the retreat: Can European defence advance?

26 June 2020
Donald Trump may not succeed in withdrawing US troops from Germany this year, but Europeans cannot assume that the Americans will stay forever.

EU-UK negotiations: No need to panic (yet)

12 June 2020
A deal between the EU and UK remains possible. But neither side is likely to compromise on its current negotiating position until later in the year, when the cost of failure will become significantly more tangible.

Hand-wringing for Hong Kong: What else can the EU do?

11 June 2020
The EU should not be indifferent to what is happening in Hong Kong. China’s willingness to violate Hong Kong’s autonomy is part of a pattern of increasingly confrontational behaviour.

Securing Europe's medical supply chains against future shocks

29 May 2020
European policy-makers should not give in to the temptation to use the COVID-19 pandemic to justify the forced onshoring of medical supply chains. Better options are available.

The recovery fund faces a tricky passage

29 May 2020
The Commission's proposed recovery fund is macroeconomically meaningful. The 'frugals' should focus less on negotiating away the transfers to harder-hit countries, and more on how the money is spent.

Trump's COVID-19 response is deepening the transatlantic rift

29 May 2020
Relations between Europe and the US were already in a poor condition before the coronavirus pandemic. Trump’s response will make tensions worse.

Three ways COVID-19 will cause economic divergence in Europe

21 May 2020
Europe's economies will diverge further as a result of COVID-19, as the economic impact will be larger in Southern Europe. Fiscal transfers would help to restart the EU's 'convergence machine'.

Coronavirus is pushing the EU in new and undesirable directions

15 May 2020
COVID-19 is transforming the EU works in several ways, accelerating trends that were visible before the virus struck. These changes are good news for anti-EU populists.

How to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol

14 May 2020
The UK must face up to its responsibilities and work with the EU to ensure goods can move as freely as possible between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Putin hits a bad patch

07 May 2020
Putin may have thought 2020 was going to be an excellent year for him. Instead, he has to deal with the oil price crash and COVID-19.

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