Research

The cost of Brexit to June 2022

21 December 2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.

Europe's central bankers should cherish their disagreements

Sander Tordoir, Shahin Vallée
20 December 2022
Promoting an open debate instead of forging consensus behind closed doors could make the European Central Bank’s decision-making culture more effective.

A new era of Finnish foreign policy begins

19 December 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented changes to Finnish foreign policy. Applying for NATO membership should only be the beginning. 

China and Russia: Are there limits to 'no limits' friendship?

15 December 2022
China has mostly offered Russia rhetorical support in its war against Ukraine. Beijing seems uncomfortable with Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. But China is unlikely to allow Russia to be decisively defeated.

Now is not the time for Ukraine to negotiate

01 December 2022
Various Western figures are encouraging Ukraine to begin peace negotiations with Russia. But a ceasefire now would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack. Ukraine needs weapons, not wavering.

How the pandemic strengthened the EU

01 December 2022
The EU has tried for years to become more resilient to global shocks. The new European Health Union is a good start. But the world is changing fast. 

The UK needs a chips strategy

01 December 2022
London wants chip-makers in Britain to support innovation. But using national security laws to engineer that outcome is counterproductive. Instead, the UK needs a more sober post-Brexit tech policy. 

The European Stability Mechanism is not ready for the next crisis

29 November 2022
Eurozone finance ministers just appointed a new head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). They should seize the opportunity to turn the ESM into a more useful institution.

UK science and technology after Brexit: How to fix it

28 November 2022
Brexit has hurt British science and slowed the deployment of new technology across its economy. Rejoining the single market may be politically unrealistic, but Britain can still limit the damage.

Europe's migration problems are back

24 November 2022
The migration spat between France and Italy is a reminder that EU migration politics continue to be toxic, and that Europe’s common migration and asylum system remains incomplete.

How to save energy in a smarter way

14 November 2022
Reducing energy demand can help Europe cope with high energy prices. Consumers need more than pleas to save energy: governments need to provide a mix of prompts, advice and rewards.

Can EU enlargement gain momentum?

03 November 2022
The war in Ukraine reinvigorated EU enlargement, but recent momentum will be hard to maintain. The Union should increase support for candidates and further develop ways to integrate them before membership.

The new US National Security Strategy: Battling China for technological leadership

Carl Bildt
24 October 2022
Despite the gravity of the war in Ukraine, the focus of the new US National Security Strategy is China.

The EU should abandon chip nationalism

20 October 2022
With the US aggressively throttling China’s chip capabilities, the EU wants to protect itself by subsidising its own domestic chip manufacturing industry. But Europe has better and more realistic alternatives.

In defence of borrowing for climate action

13 October 2022
Even though interest rates are rising globally, European governments should still borrow large sums to finance green projects. In some cases, the EU should help.

Trussonomics has failed at the first hurdle

29 September 2022
Are the UK’s institutions strong enough to stop the government’s wrong-headed fiscal policy? 

Can Truss reset relations with the EU?

29 September 2022
Britain’s new prime minister has the chance to rebuild bridges to the European Union. But it is unclear whether she will seize the opportunity.  

A world of troubles for Liz Truss

29 September 2022
The new prime minister faces huge foreign policy challenges. She needs to choose her friends, her enemies and her policies carefully. 

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