Press

The 'Malthouse compromise': Everything you need to know

Sam Lowe
29 January 2019
The Guardian
Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said an agreement like that would be possible under the current terms of the backstop. “The EU has said they will consider technical fixes as part of the means of replacing the backstop. But the issue is that lots of this is untried and untested,” he said.

Had enough of Brexit? How about 10 more years of it?

Sam Lowe
29 January 2019
Bloomberg
Even then, notes Sam Lowe, senior research fellow and trade policy expert at the Centre for European Reform, it wouldn’t be over. Another government may want to tweak what its predecessor agreed. He cites the experience of Switzerland, which has been locked in acrimonious negotiations with the EU for years. “One of the main things we should take from the Swiss is that it will never end,” he says. “When one negotiation finishes a new one begins.”

Europe's right-wing populists unite, but face rivalry on the street

29 January 2019
The Voice of America
The minister, Matteo Salvini, is trying to form alliances with governments in Hungary and Poland. Their common foe is immigration — but there are major contradictions, says analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. "With Italy wanting other countries to take migrants but Hungary, for example, having absolutely no intention of doing so. So the real question is, will they be able to work together to form an effective group?'"

Why the EU will reject the 'Malthouse Compromise'

Sam Lowe
29 January 2019
The Telegraph
Or as Sam Lowe at the Centre for European Reform summarises, “we already know that this will be rejected by the EU, because there is little to distinguish it from the myriad ERG proposals we have seen over the past year.”
“While the EU is - and always has been - prepared to discuss technical solutions to the Irish border as part of the future relationship, they are not prepared to rely on something that does not yet exist as an insurance policy. The backstop actually needs to be a backstop.”
 

El 'brexit' y las reglas de la improvisación

28 January 2019
El Periodico Internacional
La falta de guion, o de Constitución escrita, ha desembocado en una lucha encarnizada entre el Gobierno de May y la Cámara de los Comunes por hacerse con el control del proceso.

Brexit Bulletin: Changing direction?

28 January 2019
Bloomberg
The UK economy was 2.3 per cent smaller in the third quarter of last year than it would have been if the country had voted in 2016 to remain in the EU, according to the Centre for European Reform. The pro-EU think tank trimmed its estimate for the cost of Brexit from 2.5 per cent at the end of the second quarter, after the UK outperformed the hypothetical model economy. The new estimate means a weekly hit of £320 million ($422 million) to public finances, or £17 billion a year, the group said.

Brexit fears drag UK consumer confidence to 18-month low, survey finds

28 January 2019
The Independent
Brexit is already costing the UK’s public finances £17bn a year, according to a separate study released ahead of critical votes in parliament this week. The amount would be sufficient to pay 10,000 more police to patrol the streets and train nurses to fill every vacancy in England, and still leave enough to cover the UK’s current contribution to the EU’s budget. The research from the Centre for European Reform estimates the UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would have been had Britain voted to remain in the EU back in 2016.

Banks step up Brexit advice to small firms

28 January 2019
The Times
According to the Centre for European Reform, a pro-EU think tank , the UK economy is already 2.3 per cent smaller than it would have been if Britain had voted to “remain” in 2016.

'Doppelgänger UK' shows Britain's economy is 2.3% smaller because of Brexit

28 January 2019
Yahoo Finance
Britain voted to leave the European Union over two years ago and on 29 March this year, it will sever ties for good. While Brexit hasn’t technically happened, it has caused the economy to be 2.3% smaller than if Brits had voted to remain in the EU.

The cost of Brexit to September 2018

28 January 2019
The Financial Times
“Britain’s decision to leave the EU damaged growth, largely thanks to higher inflation and lower business investment. The UK missed out on a broad-based upturn in growth among advanced economies in 2017 and early 2018. And the economic cost of the decision so far is sizeable, if not disastrous.” (John Springford, Centre for European Reform)

No-deal Brexit puts UK food security at risk, warn Sainsbury’s, Asda, Waitrose and M&S

28 January 2019
The Independent
Brexit is already costing the UK’s public finances £17bn a year, according to a detailed study released ahead of critical votes in parliament this week. The amount would be sufficient to pay 10,000 more police to patrol the streets and train nurses to fill every vacancy in England, and still leave enough to cover the UK’s current contribution to the EU’s budget.

Ireland dashes May’s hopes of breaking Brexit stalemate

27 January 2019
The Financial Times
Meanwhile, a new report published by the Centre for European Reform on Sunday highlighted the damage the UK economy has already sustained as a result of the vote to leave.The CER said the economy was now 2.3 per cent smaller than it would have been if Britain had voted Remain, even after a recalculation that took account of the recent slowdown in Germany.

Pro-EU think-tank trims cost of Brexit vote for UK's economy

27 January 2019
Bloomberg
The UK’s better-than-expected economic growth last year prompted a pro-European think-tank to trim its cost estimate for voting for Brexit.The UK economy was 2.3 percent smaller in the third quarter than had the country voted in 2016 to remain in the European Union, according to the Centre for European Reform, a 0.2 percentage point cut from the prior three months. The estimate means a weekly hit of 320 million pounds ($422 million) to public finances, or 17 billion pounds a year, the group said.

Brexit: £17bn already ripped out of UK public purse due to decision to quit EU, research shows

27 January 2019
The Independent
Exclusive: The think-tank study indicates GDP would be 2.3 per cent higher had the UK voted to remain in the EU.

REVEALED: What President Macron REALLY means when he says he wants an EU ARMY

Sophia Besch
24 January 2019
The Express
European army expert and researcher for the Centre for European Reform Sophia Besch says the 'European army' was initially coined as an umbrella term for progress on EU defence co-operation. However she has noted that the misuse of the term has been causing considerable problems.

Italy accuses France of 'Impoverishing Africa' as migration tensions erupt

23 January 2019
Voice of America
Analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre For European Reform says while there is opposition to the CFA franc in some African countries, Di Maio’s accusations are misleading. “Now there’s two reasons for that. One of them being that at the moment the latest data suggests they (migrants) are not from countries using the CFA franc. And the second point is that in any case, if countries remain poor, migration is actually lower,” Scazzieri told VOA.

Divided Britain will be weaker, poorer after looming Brexit

23 January 2019
The Asahi Shimbun
With the March 29 deadline for Britain's leaving the European Union fast approaching, it is still uncertain whether the exit will be a hard or a soft one. The Asahi Shimbun interviewed Charles Grant, the head of a British think-tank, to ascertain what can be expected from the Brexit as well as the possible economic impact and other effects.

Theresa May offered plan B for Brexit. It looks a lot like the defeated plan A

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
21 January 2019
The New York Times
“I think her strategy has always been to postpone the vote until the very last minute, so that even those members of Parliament who are skeptical about her deal, but don’t want there to be no deal, would think twice about voting against it,” said Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a senior research fellow in Brussels for the Centre for European Reform, a London-based research institute.

After that defeat, even more reason to hug the EU close

Sam Lowe, John Springford
20 January 2019
The Sunday Times
The influential Centre for European Reform argues that the only option for the prime minister in getting a withdrawal agreement through the Commons will be to further blur her red lines, so pushing Britain towards a softer Brexit.

PIIE: Trade Talks Episode 68: Brexit votes for uncertainty

Sam Lowe
19 January 2019
Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown discuss the rocky departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Sam Lowe (Centre for European Reform) joins for an update on the latest political developments as Britain approaches the March 29, 2019 deadline. They then speak with Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) and Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) about new research on the economic impact that Brexit-related uncertainty has already had.